Play 4 hearts

[plaur]

[hv=d=w&v=e&n=sj863hj542djt2cak&s=sqt92hak9763d6cq9]133|200|Scoring: IMP

3♦-p-p-3♥

p-4♥-all p

lead ♦K overtaken by Ace

and ♦8 played at trick two

You win by a low ruff and now what?[/hv]

Opponents are not experts.

T1: ♦K - ♦2 - ♦A- ♦6

T2: ♦8 - ♥3 - ♦4 - ♦T

T3: you?

[quiddity]

We need to figure out how to play trumps for no losers. If East has all three, we need to cross to dummy and run the J - but this will lose to singleton Q and doubleton QT offside when cashing the AK would have worked.

 

I used Pavlicek's suit break calculator here: http://www.rpbridge.net/xsb2.htm

and it looks like a toss-up:

missing cards: 3

west spaces: 6

east spaces: 11

 

specific 2-1 break (QT offside) = 8%

specific 1-2 break (Q offside) = 16%

0-3 break (QTx onside) = 24%.

 

Is there a handy way of doing this kind of calculation at the table?

[Jlall]

We need to figure out how to play trumps for no losers.  If East has all three, we need to cross to dummy and run the J - but this will lose to singleton Q and doubleton QT offside when cashing the AK would have worked. 

 

I used Pavlicek's suit break calculator here: http://www.rpbridge.net/xsb2.htm

and it looks like a toss-up:

missing cards: 3

west spaces: 6

east spaces: 11

 

specific 2-1 break (QT offside) = 8%

specific 1-2 break (Q offside) = 16%

0-3 break (QTx onside) = 24%. 

 

Is there a handy way of doing this kind of calculation at the table?

This is not a good way of doing it. It ignores that west is never 5071, or 4072, or 1075 or even 0076 etc

 

Also, west always has at least one spade honor here. Definitely don't play west for a heart void, the only time they will have one is if they're 3073, or 2074, and that is far less likely than west being 2173, 1174, 3172 with stiff Q or 2272, 1273, with QT doubleton. Stiff spade is maybe discounted since if it was the stiff A it might have gotten led, but stiff K never would (stiff small is impossible since righty would shift to a high spade).

 

red/white I wouldn't put much stock into the fact that LHO might open 1D with SA, DKQ, and HQ, especially when the HQ is short, but it's possible with all that + the CJ, 1D would be opened. I think it is more likely that a hand with a void and the SA and DKQ and CJ would be opened 1D, especially Ax --- KQxxxxx Jxxx, so we can discount both. I think a void is just as likely to open aggressively at the 1 level as stiff Q or QT doubleton is basically.

 

Still there are just way more hands where it is right to play for the drop in hearts.

 

EDIT:

 

Also if you want to do empty spaces, it seems to me like we know righty has 5 clubs at least (else LHO has 5 clubs), and we know righty has 2 spades at least (else LHO has 4 spades), and we know RHO has 2 diamonds. So we "know" 9 of his cards, compared to LHO who we know has 7 diamonds, 2 clubs (else he would lead his stiff club since it's not an honor), and 1 spade. So we "know" 10 of his cards. 10-9 is not much.

[Jlall]

Using quidditys rule of empty spaces calculator assuming RHO has 4 empty spaces, and LHO has 3 empty spaces I got:

 

~28.5 % QT/Q on left

~11.4 % for void on left

 

In fact, stiff Q alone is far more likely than a void on the left, which seems right to me given that I think there are 3 shapes where it's stiff Q vs 2 shapes where it's void.

 

I don't think there is nearly enough clues about the high card points to overcome that.

 

Plus, a non expert RHO is going to cover the HJ probably a lot of the time when they have QTx (at least >0 %), so that is more of a reason to not run the HJ if it gets ducked.

[Jlall]

Well han says I cannot use empty spaces like this so we are discussing it lol... Han is always right though.

[Jlall]

Ok...confirmed han was correct, the way I tried to use empty spaces on this hand was bullshit. The answer on this hand is to simply not use empty spaces, and to do what I did in my first post, and just look at possible shapes. All shapes are not created equal(ly likely), but since there are far more where LHO has 1-2 hearts than where they have a void, it can't be right to play LHO for a void.

[pooltuna]

Ok...confirmed han was correct, the way I tried to use empty spaces on this hand was bullshit. The answer on this hand is to simply not use empty spaces, and to do what I did in my first post, and just look at possible shapes. All shapes are not created equal(ly likely), but since there are far more where LHO has 1-2 hearts than where they have a void, it can't be right to play LHO for a void.

There is only one way I would not play for 2-1♥ - If LHO or RHO flashed their hand at me :)

[plaur]

Opponents are not experts.

My intended solution: Cross in clubs and play the ♥J. If not covered overtake.

 

At the table I thought how silly it would be to run the ♥J and lose to the Q with hearts 2-1, so I played the ♥A. Sure LHO was void and RHO had ♥QT8. Down one.

RHO told me that he would cover the ♥J. Wouldnt most BI's cover the J from QT8?

[vuroth]

AK♥.

 

I'm not giving up Qx-x AND Q-xx just to gain v-QTx.

[vuroth]

Good point plaur - no cost to run the J and cover, and you pick up SOME QTx on the right.

 

As for B/I, at the B/I level, I would think that many would fear partner having the singleton K♥. Maybe I'm wrong, and most would just cover an honour with an honour.

 

V

[vuroth]

specific 2-1 break (QT offside) = 8%

specific 1-2 break (Q offside) = 16%

0-3 break (QTx onside) = 24%. 

 

Is there a handy way of doing this kind of calculation at the table?

Sort of. Even though jlall/han say don't use empty spaces here (rightly so, there's way too much other info out there), in general some of the calculation isn't insanely hard.

 

7-2 diamond means:

6-11 empty spaces

 

Difference between 1-2 and 0-3 is just the chances the third card goes one way vs the other. for this, we're talking:

 

6-9 empty spaces (hearts filled the first two).

 

This is a nice neat ratio. 0-3 occurs 50% more often, in isolation, than 1-2.

 

1-2 vs 2-1 is similar, this time the empty spaces are:

5-10

 

So, here, 2-1 occurs twice as often as 1-2.

 

Ok, so the actual percentages are harder to work out, but in general, distributions that are 1 card apart aren't too hard to work out at the table.

 

V