How good is this hand?

[awm]

Partner opens 1♠ and you hold ♠Qxxx ♥J98x ♦AJ8x ♣x. You're favorable (NV) at IMPs.

 

Obviously this is a perfect "mixed" raise and possibly a good mini-splinter bid, but let's suppose you don't have either available.

 

Your options are single raise or limit raise. Which do you pick?

[gwnn]

limit, why not overbid when it's a reasonable option? :)

[hrothgar]

Rather overbid than underbid at IMPs

[kenrexford]

If I had to pick, limit.

 

Really would have liked another option.

 

Not sure I agree that this looks like a mixed raise, though. Rather have a "limix" raise option with this hand (mixed HCP strength, plus shortness), kind of a mini-splinter without stating the location of the shortness, if you will.

[quiddity]

limit, I guess. It's right on the borderline and we do have 4 trumps to the Q.

[rogerclee]

Limit raise, because that's what it's worth.

[nigel_k]

Limit raise even if the hand was slightly weaker, e.g. without one of the jacks.

[Jlall]

none of the above?

[the hog]

Limit raise. I don't even think this is an overbid.

[jdonn]

Closer to too good for a limit raise than not good enough for a limit raise? LOL at single raise. And LOL at perfect mixed raise, it's too good for that too!

[Lobowolf]

Concur with last two...easy limit raise. If I did something stupid to bar partner, I'd rather bid 4 than 2.

[CSGibson]

limit raise. This hand is more likely to be worth 3 tricks than 2.

[mohitz]

close to a limit raise

[Fluffy]

wowo I feel so lonely, constructive raise for me. Anyway, be prepared to double 3♥ later :(

[Jlall]

I asked han to do a double dummy simulation on how well we fare with this hand opposite a hand that would pass a limit raise (since I would bid game). To constrain this, I said 5(332) 12-13 or 11 with 5 controls, 5(422) 11-12, or 5(431) 12-13 if the stiff was stiff Q or stiff K.

 

I felt these constraints were pretty good, if anything they favored making a limit raise because not all 5422 11s are opening hands.

 

Results:

 

10+ tricks: 35 %

9 tricks: 46 %

8- tricks: 19 %

 

This means bidding 4S instead of 3S loses you an expected .58 imps assuming the opps are going to always pass.

 

In my opinion you will gain this up based on:

 

1) The opponents are pretty much forced to bid over a w/r 4S bid with short spades and an opening hand. This can backfire sometimes (you get doubled and go for 300), but I think this will work in your favor very often, if they bid something you can double them, and if they double you and partner has anything extra you will usually be making. 4S is going to put a lot more pressure on them than a limit raise where they can usually just pass without fear of being stolen from.

 

2) Given how tight the constraints are to pass a limit raise, the truth is partner doesn't pass it very much. Because of this, the majority of the time the effect of the 4S bid is going to be to give them less info about partners hand (they won't know if he has a minimum or not during the play), and give them much less information for their opening lead. It would be unusual to make a very attacking lead vs 1S p 3S p 4S, but it would be pretty normal to attack after 1S p 4S. The effect of giving them less information to work with will be that they lead and defend worse, and you make game more often.

 

3) You will make game a lot more than double dummy simulation would indicate, because of your natural advantage as declarer, and because of your presumed skill advantage, and because of how often blind leads can be suboptimal.

 

4) I have written about this before, but in general the pressure of always making bids like this that make life hard for the opponents in both the auction and the play, and always being in thin games like this is going to cause them to make more mistakes than they usually make, and perhaps cause them to crack emotionally. Call me crazy, but putting constant pressure on them by doing stuff like this is a winning style.

 

Hopefully this simulation shows how utterly terrible making a single raise is, you are 81 % to make 3S on hands partner PASSES a limit raise with, and 35 % to make game on those hands. Imagine how often you will make game on the huge range of hands between a minimum game try over 1S-2S, and a pass of a limit raise.

 

Also note that not bidding game would be a clear error if you were vulnerable.

 

Last thing... some people worry about missing slam when you have a hand like this but I think that concern is overrated. Still, it's possible that you miss a slam by bidding 4S that you would find by making a LR.

 

Also, Adam aren't you the one who often complains about poll choices not having at least an "other" option because viable options are often left out of the poll?

[dicklont]

With hands like these I like to be in game but I don't want my partner to think I have gameforcing values.

So I'll answer 3♦, Bergen limit raise and raise 3♠ to 4.

When partner makes a slam try over 3♦ I informed him correctly.

[hanp]

Closer to too good for a limit raise then not good enough for a limit raise? LOL at single raise. And LOL at perfect mixed raise, it's too good for that too!

This.

[Little Kid]

This looks like a perfect 3♣ minisplinter so I won't settle for less than a limit raise. I have an ace, shortage and Qxxx support.

[pooltuna]

Partner opens 1♠ and you hold ♠Qxxx ♥J98x ♦AJ8x ♣x. You're favorable (NV) at IMPs.

 

Obviously this is a perfect "mixed" raise and possibly a good mini-splinter bid, but let's suppose you don't have either available.

 

Your options are single raise or limit raise. Which do you pick?

This is within my definition of a limit raise

[chasetb]

Partner opens 1♠ and you hold ♠Qxxx ♥J98x ♦AJ8x ♣x. You're favorable (NV) at IMPs.

 

Obviously this is a perfect "mixed" raise and possibly a good mini-splinter bid, but let's suppose you don't have either available.

 

Your options are single raise or limit raise. Which do you pick?

You have 7 perfectly working HCP, the ♥J98x is definitely worth a point, and the singleton ♣ is worth 2 or 3 points, 3 imo. That adds up to 11 points, and 10-12 is a mixed raise. Did 7 people REALLY choose single raise?

 

EDIT- I meant to say limit raise, NOT mixed raise.

[eyhung]

You have 7 perfectly working HCP, the ♥J98x is definitely worth a point, and the singleton ♣ is worth 2 or 3 points, 3 imo.  That adds up to 11 points, and 10-12 is a mixed raise.  Did 7 people REALLY choose single raise?

I think the standard definition of mixed raise is : 7-9(bad 10) support points(HCP + shortness 1/3/5), 4 trumps, 6-9 HCP. That is, a hand worth just a simple raise except that it holds 4 trump, and one that wouldn't fall into a preemptive raise (most 5 HCP hands with a singleton can preempt). So if you evaluate this as 11, it's too good to be called a "mixed" raise.

 

I evaluate it as worth a limit raise, but I find Justin's idea of merely blasting game intriguing.

[gnasher]

20 replies and nobody has agreed with Justin yet? I'm sorry to spoil what would be a unique event in the history of the BBO forums, but I'd bid 4♠.

[Jlall]

20 replies and nobody has agreed with Justin yet? I'm sorry to spoil what would be a unique event in the history of the BBO forums, but I'd bid 4♠.

♥

 

I know Han said he'd bid 4S also, but he didn't post it!

[jdonn]

20 replies and nobody has agreed with Justin yet?  I'm sorry to spoil what would be a unique event in the history of the BBO forums, but I'd bid 4♠.

♥

 

I know Han said he'd bid 4S also, but he didn't post it!

Are you sure? That seems to disagree with his above agreement with me.

[Jlall]

20 replies and nobody has agreed with Justin yet?  I'm sorry to spoil what would be a unique event in the history of the BBO forums, but I'd bid 4♠.

♥

 

I know Han said he'd bid 4S also, but he didn't post it!

Are you sure? That seems to disagree with his above agreement with me.

Reading comprehension?

 

You said it's closer to too good for a limit raise than not good enough for a limit raise. As someone who bids 4S, I know that I agree with that statement...