4NT takeout

[ArtK78]

This hand occurred in a live KO match last night.

 

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=skxxxhj9xxdqxxcxx&s=shaqtxxdakxxxckxx]133|200|Scoring: IMP

(3♠) - P - (4♠) - 4NT

(P) - 5♦ - (x) - All Pass[/hv]

 

The result was making 5 for +750 as both the ♣A and ♥K were onside and diamonds were 3-2. The result was duplicated at the other table, although I do not know the auction at the other table.

 

Clearly 5♥ is a better contract. Is it impractical to find a way to get to 5♥ - the best possible result - as opposed to 5♦ - the best result possible?

 

I suspect that getting to 5♥ is just not practical.

[jdonn]

Impractical to get to 5♥. WDOs (well sort of hehe).

[phil_20686]

Presumeably 4NT was two places to play rather than take out. With this particular hand couldn't south double for take out and just play opposite partners longest suit? Surely there are a wide class of hands which you would like to play in clubs here? If partner is 4-2-1-6 or something will you not look pretty stupic having bid 4n rather than make a t/o double? I would have just doubled for take out here and then partner would have bid 5h since its his longest suit. Have I missed something here?

[hanp]

Partner would pass.

[jdonn]

Presumeably 4NT was two places to play rather than take out. With this particular hand couldn't south double for take out and just play opposite partners longest suit? Surely there are a wide class of hands which you would like to play in clubs here? If partner is 4-2-1-6 or something will you not look pretty stupic having bid 4n rather than make a t/o double? I would have just doubled for take out here and then partner would have bid 5h since its his longest suit. Have I missed something here?

Double for takeout is fine. What you are missing is that partner will pass it not bid 5♥. But that's a perfectly good result so well done. :)

[ArtK78]

I agree that double for takeout is fine. And I agree that partner will pass with his hand, resulting in +500, which is certainly acceptable (although the difference between +750 and +500 would have ALMOST cost us the match).

 

However, the way that I play a double of 4♠ and the way most players play a double of 4♠ is that it is not exclusively for takeout. It is not exclusively a penalty double, either, but it tends to show power rather than shape. Call it an "optional" double if that term has any meaning.

 

Even though I have significant defensive values, I thought I would rather bid up to 5 of a red suit on this hand. The opps might even bid one more at this vul.

[aguahombre]

I agree that double for takeout is fine. And I agree that partner will pass with his hand, resulting in +500

 

However, the way that I play a double of 4♠ and the way most players play a double of 4♠ is that it is not exclusively for takeout. It is not exclusively a penalty double, either, but it tends to show power rather than shape. Call it an "optional" double if that term has any meaning.

Therefore, double is not fine. It will generally be left in. If not left in, it will uncover a 9+card club fit or an 11+card red-suit fit. A removal of the double is not pass or correct, because the remover will not expect this hand.

[Jlall]

lol 4N

[dake50]

Shouldn't there have been redouble to outscore 6H on?

[ArtK78]

lol 4N

Please elaborate.

[rogerclee]

I won't put words in Justin's mouth, but you need a good fit or quite a bit in points to make 5D/5H with your hand, and you have very reasonable defense against 4Sx. It is far less risky to double and see if partner can pull, and if he cant, to try to beat it. Double also allows partner to bid 5C, which I would be very happy to sit for. When you are going plus in 5D/5H you are also probably beating 4S because you have such good defensive values. You are risking going for a number when you should actually be going plus or collecting a number. Overall it seems very likely to me at least that 4N will convert a plus score to a minus score very often. For these reasons I would double and call it clear.

[ArtK78]

Out of curiosity, what would partner do if he held:

 

[hv=s=sxxxhj9xxdqxxcxxx]133|100|[/hv]

 

If that were his hand, presumably he would pass 4♠x. We would then be lucky to collect 300. Meanwhile, we are (somewhat luckily) making 5 of either red suit. And, if we can't make 5 of either red suit, it is likely that we would collect only 100 or perhaps even -590 against 4♠x.

 

Also, while it is next to impossible to get to 5♥ on the auction at our table, 5♥ could be claiming (and 5♦ failing) while 4♠ is either making or down only one trick if the diamonds were not 3-2.

 

So, I don't think this is much of an LOL.

[rogerclee]

I wasn't trying to prove that it was impossible for 4N to work out better than double. I was trying to explain why it was less likely to work out better.

[jdonn]

But Roger, out of curiosity what would partner do if he holds KQT9 xxx xxx xxx?

[rogerclee]

I play double is takeout, so partner is expected to bid fairly often, but with that hand I would pass.

[helene_t]

If hearts are 3-1 we only take five defensive tricks. I would double, too, if partner will take it out with a 4432-shape with xxx in spades. Not everyone will, though. With an unknown p I feel more for 4NT.

[Jlall]

lol 4N

Please elaborate.

tough to defend 4S X (by far the most likely thing you want to do when you have this hand) or play in 5C (definitely what you want to do if partner will bid it over your X) when you bid 4N!

[ArtK78]

But Roger, out of curiosity what would partner do if he holds KQT9 xxx xxx xxx?

I don't know why you would cater to this setup of the cards when the opponents are telling you that they have the spade suit pretty much locked up.

 

I gave the situation a little more thought and determined that you might miss a slam on hands that partner would probably pass a double of 4♠. For example:

 

[hv=s=sqtxxhkjxdqjxxcqx]133|100|[/hv]

 

You are likely to take 300 or 500 against 4♠x, although it could be as little as 100 or as much as 800. But 6♦ is a virtual claim. And no one would argue that partner has an action over 3♠ or would do anything other than pass if you doubled 4♠.

 

There are even hands that partner might hold where he would pass the double of 4♠ and you have play for a grand, such as

 

[hv=s=sqtxxhkjxdqjxxcqx]133|100|[/hv]

 

Sure, the double might work out better. Sure, it might be right to play the hand in clubs. But I believe that playing the hand in a red suit offers greater potential.

[Jlall]

Oh partner might pass the X when it's wrong, I had no idea, in that case 4N must be clearcut, sry.

[ArtK78]

Oh partner might pass the X when it's wrong, I had no idea, in that case 4N must be clearcut, sry.

Thanks for the helpful reply. No doubt we are all very impressed.

[Jlall]

Oh partner might pass the X when it's wrong, I had no idea, in that case 4N must be clearcut, sry.

Thanks for the helpful reply. No doubt we are all very impressed.

lol

[eyhung]

Thanks for the helpful reply.  No doubt we are all very impressed.

 

I would say almost any post where Justin writes more than 3 lines rates to be far more helpful than many of the posts on here. I am impressed he has the time and willingness to share. Maybe your ego is wounded because your arguments were repeatedly and summarily dismissed with sarcastic one-liners, but if your goal is to improve, I think it's best to check your ego in at the door and listen. I think the following was the most important lesson I've learned from here, which was taken from the 2/1 Gitleman (sic) thread.

 

I gave the problem to a much better and much more experienced player than me: Jeff Meckstroth.

 

His response was something along the lines of:

 

"If you are doubled in 1NT and you are thinking about running, my experience strongly suggests that you should run"

 

I suspect that if I asked him "why?" the best answer he could give would be something like:

 

"Because I have seen this situation many times and my judgment suggests that I would have lost more IMPs had I sat for 1NT doubled".

 

I suspect that if I asked him "why?" again he would look at my like I was an idiot, walk away, and not be inclined to answer any more bidding questions from me in the future.

 

...

 

 

The point is that such answers, even though they do not constitute "proof" are meaningful. There may not even be any "right" answers to questions like "should I run from 1NT doubled?", but if there are then surely it is the case that a strong opinion by a random top player is more likely to be right than the best guess of a random less experienced player.

 

And the more top players to have a given strong opinion about a given matter, the more likely that this opinion is "right".

 

Wouldn't you prefer to have an answer that is likely to be right than no answer at all?

 

Ever since this incident, when I have been in this situation I have thought back to what Jeff had to say and I have followed his advice. After such hands I tend to think about what the result would have been if I had Passed 1NT doubled. Now I can say that my experience also suggests that Jeff is right (big shock).

 

I don't know *why* he appears to be right and, frankly, I could care less - if your goal is to win the bridge tournament then it really does not matter that you understand everything that you do. What matters is that you make the most successful decisions that you can.

 

...

 

If you have little respect for bridge players who draw conclusions based on their experience, then I believe it is likely that you will never come close to realizing your potential as a player. There are simply too many things in this game that you can only learn by asking better players what they think (or maybe playing a TON of hands yourself and using your judgment based on this experience).

[Jlall]

Dearest Art,

 

I have respectfully considered your arguments on why bidding 4N might be better than doubling. However, I think that picking a few hands where bidding 4N works better than doubling is a bad way to go about deciding which is a better call, because there are many possible outcomes. If you wanted to do a simulation of thousands of hands, that might work, but cherry picking one or two hands where 4N works better than doubling is not helpful, since you could easily do the same and pick the worst case outcomes for bidding 4N, where doubling works much better, and advance that as an argument for doubling. Again, that argument would not mean much.

 

You have successfully proven that there are deals on which bidding 4N works better than doubling, but you have done nothing to prove that bidding 4N will work better than doubling in the long run. That is fine, because there is not much you can do, except maybe an extensive simulation, in order to do so. But to pick a few hands that you yourself created with the purpose not of finding truth, but simply of backing up your decision to bid 4N rather than to double, does not advance your cause much.

 

This is what the user "jdonn" was saying when he asked roger (sarcastically, in case you missed it), what parnter would do with KQT9 of spades and out.

 

This is what the user "rogerclee" was saying, when he very reasonably said " I wasn't trying to prove that it was impossible for 4N to work out better than double. I was trying to explain why it was less likely to work out better. "

 

In response to this, you created a couple more examples where bidding 4N is right.

 

What do you expect in response to this? Would it mean much to you if I said "yeah, but partner can have QJx xx xx QJxxxx!" Of course, you would then see that as a futile excersize to further my agenda of being "right" when I say that double is better than 4N, and that it is really quite meaningless. You might not see that I am doing the exact same thing that you did when you created some hands.

 

You might consider that people who think double is better than 4N realize that 4N can work better than double. Even if they LOL the notion of bidding 4N, it does not mean that they think 4N will never work better. They might similarly LOL the notion of passing with 20 HCP in 4th seat, even though you, ArtK, could create a layout where that pass would be a winner. You would probably then get LOLed some more, or perhaps be subject to sarcastic and snide comments though.

 

Luv,

Jlall