dellache Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 [hv=d=n&v=n&s=sa10h9763da75cq982]133|100|Scoring: IMP2♠ (3NT) The end.Your lead.*2♠= 6 carder, somewhat loosy sometimes.[/hv] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apollo81 Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 Since it's IMPs and I don't see great things from any other suit, I'll lead partner's spades. No way I would do this at MPs though, too likely to blow a trick and not set them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P_Marlowe Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 Hi, Spades, that means the Ace. Why? We have 2 sure tricks, but need 3 add. tricks, which suit offers the bestchance for 3 add. tricks? Of course this is just a guess, but it is your best guess, any other suit would alsobe a guess. With kind regardsMarlowe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 yeah Imps makes it easy, lets hope partner's got an entry, maybe its one of those deals where we must discard ♦A Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted January 20, 2010 Report Share Posted January 20, 2010 yeah Imps makes it easy, lets hope partner's got an entry, maybe its one of those deals where we must discard ♦ATrue hand from this Monday, club game: [hv=d=s&v=b&n=sqj43haq3da74cq97&w=s76h62dkqt9653c64&e=s10985hj1085d82ca82&s=sak2hk974djckj1053]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] Norths plays 3NT after west has overcalled in diamonds. East leads the diamond 8, west wins the queen. West leads the diamond 9 which holds. West now plays the diamond 3, east pitching the club ace. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 20, 2010 Report Share Posted January 20, 2010 lol :), I think the ace third discard only happens when partner has the jack, not the queen :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted January 20, 2010 Report Share Posted January 20, 2010 So, was east dumb, west dumb, neither, or both? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Codo Posted January 20, 2010 Report Share Posted January 20, 2010 East was dumb- if West had the queen in clubs doubelton he may had played the lowest diamond to show that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted January 20, 2010 Report Share Posted January 20, 2010 Obviously I should have used boldfaced letters: East leads the diamond 8, west wins the queen. West leads the diamond 9 which holds. West now plays the diamond 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old York Posted January 20, 2010 Report Share Posted January 20, 2010 yeah Imps makes it easy, lets hope partner's got an entry, maybe its one of those deals where we must discard ♦ATrue hand from this Monday, club game: [hv=d=s&v=b&n=sqj43haq3da74cq97&w=s76h62dkqt9653c64&e=s10985hj1085d82ca82&s=sak2hk974djckj1053]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] Norths plays 3NT after west has overcalled in diamonds. East leads the diamond 8, west wins the queen. West leads the diamond 9 which holds. West now plays the diamond 3, east pitching the club ace. How many reached 6♣? Tony Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted January 20, 2010 Report Share Posted January 20, 2010 This is what east was hoping for:[hv=d=s&v=b&n=sq743haq3da74c976&w=sj6h62dkqt9653cq4&e=s10985hj1085d82ca82&s=sak2hk974djckj1053]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted January 20, 2010 Report Share Posted January 20, 2010 How many reached 6♣? Tony 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted January 20, 2010 Report Share Posted January 20, 2010 I think East is a very fine player, and West is lucky that it was IMPs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted January 20, 2010 Report Share Posted January 20, 2010 Maybe west (a very fine player) knew it was IMPs? He might have visualized: [hv=d=s&v=b&n=sq543haq3da74cq97&w=s76h62dkqt9653c64&e=sj1098hj1085d82ca82&s=sak2hk974djckj1053]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] Is it possible that north (not as fine a player) had believed his carding and tried for a 3-3 split in a major? Wait, this didn't make sense, declarer had only 7 tricks to start with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 20, 2010 Report Share Posted January 20, 2010 I still believe its east's fault, if partner has ♣Q you just have to duck twice, or duck once and discard the ace when you feel under pressure later. It is only when he has ♣J when you need to discard the ace right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quiddity Posted January 20, 2010 Report Share Posted January 20, 2010 Fluffy, east has to discard something. If he discards a major, declarer has 9 tricks. If he discards a low club, he can't duck twice later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 20, 2010 Report Share Posted January 20, 2010 ahh sorry, you are right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lobowolf Posted January 20, 2010 Report Share Posted January 20, 2010 I'd actually want to lead a club. But I'd lead a spade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted January 20, 2010 Report Share Posted January 20, 2010 doh.. it's west's fault for not having the ♣Q :) as for the lead... spade ace because 1. overcaller might be bluffing and 2. all other leads suck anyway ahah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dellache Posted January 21, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2010 Since it's IMPs and I don't see great things from any other suit, I'll lead partner's spades. No way I would do this at MPs though, too likely to blow a trick and not set them.Apollo81 sum's up the impressing majority of votes for leading the ♠Ace. At the table, I led a neutral ♥7, and it allowed declarer to make (she had stiff ♠KQ, and pard had a terrible 6HCP hand... including the ♥Ace). We missed the opportunity to gain 10 imps (same lead at the other table, 2NT-3NT without the 2♠ opening). Partner wondered at the end of the match why I chose such an "exotic" lead, as ♠Ace was obvious. These were my thoughts :1. ♠Ace will often blow a trick (i.e. increase declarer trick potential [DTP] by one) ;2. if the DTP was 8 tricks, we give him the possibility to make. It doesn't matter if WE can score 5+ tricks before she can score 9. Otherwise ♠Ace was a mistake.3. if the DTP was 9+ tricks, this is IMPS and we don't care: ♠Ace becomes our best chance.4. I know RHO very well : she bid a confident 3NT, and is never bluffing in those situations. So what is declarer trick potential before my lead actually ? Pard is usually 6-9 HCP, RHO has 20-21 HCP in average. It's not very likely that she has a strong running minor (6 good diamonds are only a remote possibility), and dummy will be disapointing. In average, they rate to have only about 23(24) HCP, and making 9 tricks with such a weak dummy might be taxing. I decided that playing the hand neutrally was our best chance to set this (actually : to not allow this pushy contract to make). After all they bid 3NT under the gun, and my hand will be much much better than dummy. Then I saw your answers (wow, I expected about 50/50 for Heart/spade!), and decided :1. To call partner and apologize for bad judgement :( 2. to check I was really absolutely wrong by running a simulation. And the simulation (20000 boards) results were... interesting and unexpected (please don't tell me that sims favour declarer/defense and so on... this is probably a very useful tool to check stuff like this here) :- ♥7 beats 3NT 67% of the time- ♠A beats 3NT (only) 66% of the time- ♣2 beats 3NT 63% of the time (!!)- ♦x beats 3NT 60% of the time... At least the simulation tells us :- that it is very close,- even the unappealing minor leads are not that bad ;- the contract is indeed usually a bad one. As a matter of fact, if you compute the average of Imps gained when leading Heart Vs Spades, the final winner is ♠Ace. Leading ♠Ace will gain 0,10 Imps/board against ♥7 in the long term, because of the influence of over/under-tricks. Well, actually "IMP *don't* make this simple" (antiquoting fluffy). Thanx all for your thoughts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 21, 2010 Report Share Posted January 21, 2010 without knowing your opponents, the chance of a long minor on this sequence is greater than what you expect IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dellache Posted January 21, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2010 without knowing your opponents, the chance of a long minor on this sequence is greater than what you expect IMOThe simulation did take this into account, allowing for 6+m w/ a spade stop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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