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The play's the thing


Echognome

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since this is MP you need to play this with the assumption that 4 will fail against reasonable defense.

No I don't. If 4 is making, I've already lost to the people in game, so the only people I'm competing with are the ones who're in a partscore. If 4 is going down, then as long as I make at least as many tricks as the players in 4, I've already beaten them and again I can ignore them.

 

The only way the people in 4 matter is if I do something anti-percentage that costs a trick, and 4 is going down. That will make me tie with the players in 4, and turn my good board into a bad one.

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Most will fly A on 1 I think. Even if the finesse WAS working (which seems anti percentage), I might still escape if LHO is the one with 3 spades. Taking the finesse just seems a bit strange.

 

Even asking about 2 seems strange, as anything but discarding a heart would be pretty insane.

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I admit it, I don't see how you would know to play on diamonds rather than clubs after the heart switch and drawing trumps.

I agree. Odds are pretty against it. Note that West could have played a third round of diamonds and to make 4 you would have to guess to play East for Q9 or J9 rather than QJ9 (which you may very well do). A better defense is for West to shift to a heart at trick 2. Then you can never make 4.

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No one took the bait about restricted choice. From my standpoint as a less than expert, the cards played so far in diamonds and in hearts reveal that the eleven black cards are close to evenly divided.

 

So, when I play two spades, I will guess that the missing spade quack is in the hand which did not play a quack on the second round. In, this case that would mean cashing the diamonds and pitching hearts from dummy.

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