Jlall Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 crack. lol at simulating this Why is simulating this a bad idea? Mikeh's method does not seem unreasonable to me: deal a number of hands consistent with the auction and try to decide what might happen after a double or a pass. Because, eventually all you're left with are your assumptions on what might happen after you double. And there are a ton of assumptions. You really went through all the hands, and saw how the play might be slightly altered by doubling, to the point where one declarer guesses something and one doesn't or vice versa? Or how the lead might be altered? And there is just so much guessing in the auction that might lead to later differences in the lead/play/bidding. And eventually you still just have a sample of what might happen if you double vs hanp, not what might happen if you double vs an average opponent, because some of the mistakes that will occur you will not realize might occur. In general being in the auction will cause the opponents to make some mistakes, and you can never fully account for this. The fact that you and mikeh got wildly different answers from doing the same simulation is simply because you have different views on what would happen after you doubled. I think this is pretty useless. I even think if you and I were to analyze the same set of hands that you simulated, we would have quite different views about what would happen on these hands after a double and a pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old York Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 In general being in the auction will cause the opponents to make some mistakes, and you can never fully account for this. In general, when playing on bbo, I have 3 opponents. I suppose the odds are still in my favour as only one opponent is my partner. Tony :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 crack. lol at simulating this Why is simulating this a bad idea? Mikeh's method does not seem unreasonable to me: deal a number of hands consistent with the auction and try to decide what might happen after a double or a pass. Because, eventually all you're left with are your assumptions on what might happen after you double. And there are a ton of assumptions. You really went through all the hands, and saw how the play might be slightly altered by doubling, to the point where one declarer guesses something and one doesn't or vice versa? Or how the lead might be altered? And there is just so much guessing in the auction that might lead to later differences in the lead/play/bidding. And eventually you still just have a sample of what might happen if you double vs hanp, not what might happen if you double vs an average opponent, because some of the mistakes that will occur you will not realize might occur. In general being in the auction will cause the opponents to make some mistakes, and you can never fully account for this. The fact that you and mikeh got wildly different answers from doing the same simulation is simply because you have different views on what would happen after you doubled. I think this is pretty useless. I even think if you and I were to analyze the same set of hands that you simulated, we would have quite different views about what would happen on these hands after a double and a pass. I also think, as absolutely fair-minded and honest as I know Mike and Han would both try to be, it's an absolutely impossible task when you enter with an already strong opinion (like Mike had) of the correct action. That means in his mind he knows why he believes it is the correct action and he won't be able to get around the subconcious bias for those things to take place. I don't mean a thought process like "I believe pass is best therefore I will analyze in a way that makes pass best." I mean "I believe pass is best because X might happen if you double, and look if you double here X might happen!" I mean look, han and mike are both really good at bridge. And they didn't just get different results, they got wildly different, totally opposite results. It has to be a combination of bridge styles and subconcious bias (and han not limiting opening hands to 12), what else can it be? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 I say if someone wants to do this, run 30 hands (with han's opening bid requirements), post them, and let us duke them out in the thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyhung Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 (edited) Ask and ye shall receive. I already have a reasonable model for a 1S opener in my library, so it was child's play for me to create 30 hands fixing one hand as the OP's hand and giving RHO a 1S opener. Let the analysis begin! (1) S: 86543 H: 875 D: AK C: J32 S: 9 S: KQJT2 H: K H: QJ96 D: J9873 D: 52 C: KT9864 C: A7 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (2) S: 862 H: 87 D: J8753 C: A63 S: Q9 S: KJT543 H: J5 H: KQ96 D: A2 D: K9 C: KT98742 C: J S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (3) S: Q5 H: KJ75 D: J975 C: T93 S: 8643 S: KJT92 H: 6 H: Q98 D: 2 D: AK83 C: KJ87642 C: A S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (4) S: J6 H: KQ7 D: K72 C: JT963 S: Q983 S: KT542 H: J985 H: 6 D: AJ53 D: 98 C: 8 C: AK742 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (5) S: KJ8 H: 6 D: KJ93 C: JT843 S: T9 S: Q65432 H: J9875 H: KQ D: 852 D: A7 C: A97 C: K62 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (6) S: K52 H: 765 D: 93 C: AK762 S: 843 S: QJT96 H: KQJ98 H: --- D: J85 D: AK72 C: 98 C: JT43 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (7) S: T92 H: K975 D: J987 C: KT S: 43 S: KQJ865 H: J8 H: Q6 D: 32 D: AK5 C: A976432 C: J8 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (8) S: KQ42 H: K86 D: 8 C: KJT92 S: 96 S: JT853 H: 5 H: QJ97 D: K97532 D: AJ C: 8763 C: A4 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (9) S: KT H: 975 D: K987 C: 8764 S: 654 S: QJ9832 H: J8 H: KQ6 D: A32 D: J5 C: KJT92 C: A3 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (10) S: 94 H: KQJ986 D: J C: AT74 S: J852 S: KQT63 H: 7 H: 5 D: A9873 D: K52 C: 983 C: KJ62 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (11) S: JT H: QJ86 D: KJ32 C: 982 S: K542 S: Q9863 H: 5 H: K97 D: 87 D: A95 C: KJT763 C: A4 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (12) S: T3 H: Q95 D: K732 C: JT98 S: QJ S: K986542 H: K876 H: J D: J85 D: A9 C: A764 C: K32 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (13) S: 84 H: J76 D: J9 C: AJT743 S: Q9 S: KJT6532 H: 95 H: KQ8 D: A875 D: K32 C: K9862 C: --- S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (14) S: Q8643 H: Q8 D: 98 C: K932 S: 5 S: KJT92 H: J65 H: K97 D: AKJ532 D: 7 C: T74 C: AJ86 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (15) S: 63 H: Q976 D: A53 C: J972 S: T984 S: KQJ52 H: J8 H: K5 D: K972 D: J8 C: A86 C: KT43 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (16) S: 9 H: J987 D: J982 C: KJ63 S: KT2 S: QJ86543 H: KQ5 H: 6 D: 753 D: AK C: A982 C: T74 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (17) S: 653 H: J5 D: J97 C: KJT83 S: JT9 S: KQ842 H: K9876 H: Q D: K5 D: A832 C: A76 C: 942 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (18) S: KQ9 H: KQJ5 D: 972 C: 973 S: J2 S: T86543 H: 986 H: 7 D: KJ853 D: A C: T42 C: AKJ86 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (19) S: 53 H: K5 D: K3 C: AKT8743 S: 9642 S: KQJT8 H: QJ98 H: 76 D: J5 D: A9872 C: 962 C: J S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (20) S: QT82 H: Q D: K9 C: AJT963 S: K6 S: J9543 H: 865 H: KJ97 D: J8532 D: A7 C: 874 C: K2 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (21) S: JT2 H: 75 D: 97 C: AKJT32 S: Q85 S: K9643 H: K98 H: QJ6 D: J8532 D: AK C: 94 C: 876 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (22) S: 9632 H: QJ87 D: 73 C: 643 S: T4 S: KQJ85 H: 96 H: K5 D: K952 D: AJ8 C: AJ987 C: KT2 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (23) S: T32 H: 87 D: J9853 C: A97 S: 94 S: KQJ865 H: QJ5 H: K96 D: K2 D: A7 C: JT6432 C: K8 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (24) S: K92 H: QJ875 D: AKJ2 C: 3 S: Q86 S: JT543 H: 96 H: K D: 983 D: 75 C: J8762 C: AKT94 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (25) S: J65 H: 8765 D: K975 C: J6 S: QT9 S: K8432 H: QJ9 H: K D: J83 D: A2 C: 8742 C: AKT93 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (26) S: T643 H: Q98 D: 932 C: A43 S: J9 S: KQ852 H: KJ7 H: 65 D: 875 D: AKJ C: T8762 C: KJ9 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (27) S: T H: 9865 D: A9752 C: KJ4 S: 953 S: KQJ8642 H: QJ7 H: K D: K8 D: J3 C: T8762 C: A93 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (28) S: JT65 H: J9 D: 72 C: A9872 S: 9 S: KQ8432 H: K8765 H: Q D: 983 D: AKJ5 C: JT64 C: K3 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (29) S: Q H: QJ986 D: AJ95 C: 943 S: J864 S: KT9532 H: 75 H: K D: 732 D: K8 C: JT82 C: AK76 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- (30) S: J862 H: J96 D: KJ5 C: J76 S: T3 S: KQ954 H: K87 H: Q5 D: 2 D: A9873 C: AKT9832 C: 4 S: A7 H: AT432 D: QT64 C: Q5 -------------------------- Edited January 19, 2010 by eyhung Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyhung Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 1♠ parameters: 5+ spades, spades longest suit or tied for longest, rule of 20, 2 quick tricks, will not be 5332 with 15-17 HCP or 20-21 HCP. Maximum is 21 HCP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjbrr Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 In soon-to-be epic thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 Awesome, I'm gonna get to this later! Um can you number the hands in the original post so we can refer to them? Thanks friend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helene_t Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 Take the first one for example. Without the dbl, opps probably bid 1♠-1NT-2♥-3♣-pass, off 1. With the double, is West going to bid 2♣? If so, is North going to dbl? If not, is North going to pass, bid 1NT, bid 2♣, or to bid 2♥? Etc. I think some 20 different scores could result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyhung Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 Um can you number the hands in the original post so we can refer to them? Thanks friend. Hands now numbered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 we should open 30 polls. I don't think it is a big issue is it? It sounds like an exciting and new project that has never been done before! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 we should open 30 polls. I don't think it is a big issue is it? It sounds like an exciting and new project that has never been done before! I think you are the man for the job. In fact I think this warrants a new temporary forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 I will open all the threads later tonight. :) (unless it was sarcasm - I am as able to detect it as Sheldon Cooper) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 Are you saying if my comment wasn't sarcastic you'll really do it? Gwnn you are my vote for honorary forum member of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 Sample size is too small. Why? n = 30 is the point where the student t distribution starts to get very close to a standardized normal, i.e. the point where small sample size effects start to dissipate. 30 is also the atomic number of Zinc. He-he very appropriate analogy. Also, if a sample size of 30 is always enough, why bother letting everyone vote in general elections. Just pick 30 citizens at random. I agree with Josh's criticism of Mikeh's method but I also can't find of a better way of easily addressing the issue. If GIB or some similar software could be manipulated to chose either pass or dbl with this hand it would be better (and could also give a larger sample size). Using BridgeBrowser is also an option but then we have the problem of defining which hands are sufficiently similar to include, as the BB database probably won't include this exact hand. But nice that Han did the same analysis. GIB can be so manipulated. I have done simulations like that in the past. Jeff Miller has done similar simulations which have been published in Bridge World regarding explore for major fit or bash 3NT decisions. In some of the simulations that I have done there has been some bias from GIBs actions in the later auction after some particular actions. In particular I think in some situations I have noticed that GIB is particularly bad at doubling. I am not sure how generic this is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 Yes sure. Why not? I am bored. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 I suggest you PM to inquiry if you are doing so, so he creates a temporary forum :). Using BPO poll contest wich is dead is another option Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 yea I'll just use that. I hope they will move it if it's especially bad. please don't merge them though. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 moving 30 threads is not as boring as creating them, but comparable nevertheless :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted January 19, 2010 Report Share Posted January 19, 2010 Gwnn you are amazing. But you should be naming the threads "can of worms" imo. I will try to get to them later tonight, as any opportunity to bump up my post count by 30 is worthwhile. Eugene your algorithm should deduct for singleton K/Q/J. Look at hand 17. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted January 20, 2010 Report Share Posted January 20, 2010 boo hoo, it's spades! we're favorable! :) I think I'd open it to be honest but maybe this is just the euphoria from finishing the threads :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyhung Posted January 20, 2010 Report Share Posted January 20, 2010 Gwnn you are amazing. But you should be naming the threads "can of worms" imo. I will try to get to them later tonight, as any opportunity to bump up my post count by 30 is worthwhile. Eugene your algorithm should deduct for singleton K/Q/J. Look at hand 17. So do you want me to model it based on expert-Josh judgement or random bridge player? I can add a deduction of 1 point for a stiff king/queen/jack into my model. But I think there are plenty of people who would open #17, it's certainly not out of line especially since the stiff queen is in hearts (seriously annoying the opponents with your 1S open). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted January 20, 2010 Report Share Posted January 20, 2010 It's not some random special formula I made up to deduct for singleton honors. I'm pretty sure almost every bridge player does it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted January 20, 2010 Report Share Posted January 20, 2010 I'd prefer the Bowles method to the jdonn non-random formula. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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