ron Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 [hv=d=w&v=e&s=skxxhtxdqtxxcj9xx]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv] Opponents bid 1D 1H2N 3C3H 4N5H 6H 3C is new minor focing, 4N is RKCB.How would you rate various leads? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siegmund Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 [first answer withdrawn because I didnt see who was declarer] My vote is for C > D > H > S. We're leading through strength with the diamond but that just means that if we force declarer to take an early finesse it will work. The spade is agressive but dangerous. The heart may solve a 2-way finesse but is the suit we're least likely to have a trick in to start with. That seems to leave a club as safest. We are definitely going to need some luck to beat this - SA in declarer's hand and one fortunate face card in partner's, if not more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
655321 Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 Low spade Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 Low spade ditto easy.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akhare Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 [hv=d=w&v=e&s=skxxhtxdqtxxcj9xx]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv] Opponents bid 1D 1H2N 3C3H 4N5H 6H 3C is new minor focing, 4N is RKCB.How would you rate various leads? Attacking leads work well against small slams, but in this case, it seems good to go passive. I would opt for ♣ or ♥, with the latter having a little more weight... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mbodell Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 How good are our opponents? How good are our teammates/field? I think I'd lead a ♥ if I trust the opponents to be good and missing 1 KC but not the Q. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlall Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 yeah a spade lead is really standout Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P_Marlowe Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 Hi, Going just by "rules", not the worst idea, as long as the rule have some merrits #diamond is out, it is their suit, so this is out a "standard rule"#leading from the 4th jack is also a terrible holding, also a "standard rule" This leaves spades and hearts (trumps). # Spades are attacking# trumps are passive Against small slams going for attack is not the worst idea, a "standard rule",espesially if they seem to have the power for it. Hence attack. If you dont like to attack, reasonable, espesially playing MP, lead a trump. With kind regardsMarlowe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 Opps will have trouble setting up the minors for discards, so I think going passive is the right thing here. Trouble is the trump lead from Tx into the long hand isn't too hot... but ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Codo Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 Spade. Dummy had shown around 18-19 HCPS including two KCs. he will have a lot of minor stuff. It is highly possible that he owns AQ(xx) of spades. But in that case, declarer can always finesse later. But maybe he won't finesse at trick one because he has other chances to discard a spade loser? And if partner has a high spade you are obviously well placed with the spade lead too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pooltuna Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 [hv=d=w&v=e&s=skxxhtxdqtxxcj9xx]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv] Opponents bid 1D 1H2N 3C3H 4N5H 6H 3C is new minor focing, 4N is RKCB.How would you rate various leads? S>D>C>H Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 Cherdano always leads a spade here, I'll follow him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 the bidding suggests both opponents are balanced in the 31-34 range, finding partner with ♠Q doesn't look promising, and maybe 2 spade tricks is what we are suposed to get on this deal unless we lead the suit. I would had led passive (heart for me), but if everyone else is saying spade I guess I am wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 agree with 656098 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siegmund Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 You knew it had to happen someday.... here comes a double-dummy sim :ph34r: There's room for a lot of interpretation what limits to impose on the hands. Here is what I used: West is K32 T2 QT32 J932. North: balanced 18-19; exactly 3 hearts; clubs not longer than diamonds; two key cards; no HQSouth: at least 12 HCP; exactly 5 hearts; no void. NS together hold exactly five out of (4 aces+HK+HQ). I compared only S2, H2, D2, and C2 leads. For my "IMP comparison," I marked a lead as a winner if it sets the contract; no other lead holds declarer to fewer tricks; and some other lead allows declarer to take more tricks.I marked a hand as "doesn't matter" if either all four leads allow the contract to make (possibly some making 6 and others making 7), or all four leads set the contract by the same number of tricks. Doesn't matter - 792/1000Clubs - 126Hearts - 113Diamonds - 99Spades - 81 For my "MP comparison," I marked a lead as a winner if no other lead holds declarer to fewer tricks and some other lead allows declarer to take more tricks, and marked it as "doesn't matter" if all 4 leads produce the same result. Doesn't matter - 646/1000Clubs - 253Hearts - 203Diamonds - 196Spades - 138 The results will be quite sensitive to your assumptions about South's hand. In particular my "South >= 12HCP" assumption made it very hard for East to have an ace (he never has more than 4HCP and often has less.) If you allow more distributional 10-11 point hands for South, East's HCP expectation will rise, and the spade lead will fare better. [Edited to add: changing my requirement to South>=10 HCP instead of 12 moves the spade lead into 3rd place: doesnt matter 696/1000; club 183 heart 159 spade 136 diamond 121.] Still, it's a starting point - and reassures me that if my judgment about a lead here is badly off, it's because my judgment about South's likely holding is off, not because I am crazy <_< Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 I love leading aggressively against slams but it just doesn't seem like the time for leading a spade to me. The minors don't seem to be breaking and the stronger hand is on my right. I would lead a (hopefully) passive trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
655321 Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 the stronger hand is on my right.The strong hand is on your other right actually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 I love double dummy things, but our diamond holding is too much prone to deep finesing for it to be accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 the stronger hand is on my right.The strong hand is on your other right actually. That's quite true. Almost to the point I now want to change my answer. I'll revert to spade. I note that is the third time today I either misread a post or accidentally ignored what it said. I would like my place in forums record books duly noted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlall Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 I don't understand how any bridge player could say: 1) I like leading aggressively vs slams but2) This is not the hand for it. Trumps are breaking. If there is a finesse in trumps it's likely on. If there is a finesse/double finesse in diamonds it's likely on. They had a complete power auction, rather than a tentative auction. LHO is very strong. If this isn't the time for it, what is? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 when they have a running suit instead of balaned hands and I have a reasonable chance to hit partner with a spade lead? I'd hate to see partner with ♠Q98 and giving away the contract on the lead, also horrible that someone has doubleton spade and we have a diamond trick coming. For a spade to be vital, we need a side trick to cash on their running suit, where is it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlall Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 Siegmund, 12 points with 5 hearts is a very bad metric for a guy who simply forces to slam opposite 18-19 with 3 hearts when they had a ton of room to investigate if they chose to do so. If they are simply bidding on power/HCP, we are very unlikely to set this because partner won't have anything (RHO will surely have more than 12!), and if we can it's not like a spade lead will blow it that often. If RHO has some shape which is very likely, especially in instances where we can set them, a spade lead just stands out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 Run the sim with 13-16 HCP please. Agree with the spade leaders except initially like Josh I thought the strong hand was on my right. Don't love the spade traveling around to the holding on my right but what can I do? If the strong hand were on my right (say a t-walsh or precision sequence) I doubt I'd be leading a spade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 yes, if RHO is unbalanced a spade lead will improve, but my read form the bidding was that RHO had all the 4 level to investigate and failed to, would he bury a grand slam if partner had the perfect hand? well I think not, but I won't calim to be right there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted January 11, 2010 Report Share Posted January 11, 2010 I don't understand how any bridge player could say: 1) I like leading aggressively vs slams but2) This is not the hand for it. Trumps are breaking. If there is a finesse in trumps it's likely on. If there is a finesse/double finesse in diamonds it's likely on. They had a complete power auction, rather than a tentative auction. LHO is very strong. If this isn't the time for it, what is? If that was referring to my comment, please note I had the opponents' hands reversed (so the finesses were off instead of on), then realized it and changed my lead. If it was not in response to me, never mind. But it seems like it was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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