Simple Suit Combination?

[Little Kid]

How will you play this combo for 3 tricks:

 

A754

Q863

 

T1: 3-2-A-9

T2: 4-T-?

[Finch]

Playing the queen is correct if RHO has precisely K109

Playing low is correct if RHO has precisely J109.

 

No other holding is relevant. With no HCP information, each holding was, originally, equally likely to have been dealt.

 

If your RHO always plays his cards religiously upwards, it is a 50/50 guess.

 

If your RHO would select among obvious equals at random, then with J109 he might sometimes have played the jack on the first or second round while with K109 he would have had no choice, which makes it a strong favourite to play the queen.

 

If your RHO is the type of player who would always play an honour on the first round if he could (and there are some of those around) then he doesn't have the jack, and you must play the queen.

[Jlall]

Few people if any are exploitable enough that you can play for JT9 here.

[Little Kid]

For the sake of argument then: your opponents are world class and know you have a 4-4 in that suit. Would this change your play? Or if RHO played the J then the 9? What would they have to play on the first two tricks to make you duck?

[Jlall]

For the sake of argument then: your opponents are world class and know you have a 4-4 in that suit. Would this change your play? Or if RHO played the J then the 9? What would they have to play on the first two tricks to make you duck?

If they play the J and the 9 you can duck vs most opps, but be aware that it is a very standard falsecard for good expert players to play J then 9 from KJ9.

[Little Kid]

I actually made this poll because it said in a book that it is a 50/50 guess to play the Q or duck from:

 

Axxx

Qxxx

 

I thought that Queen was better because the only relevant distribution is 2 with LHO, 3 with RHO. Therefore RHO has a better chance of having the K. I didn't think of the fact that everything changes once you actually put in the spot cards and look what each opponent plays, which is probably far more relevant. It does kind of make the poll silly <_<