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Simple judgement question


hrothgar

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No law against having a maximum. It's still 1NT for me.

 

(Bear in mind that's in the context of someone who has upgraded 14 to open 1NT about twice in his whole life. )

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Agree with 1...2NT.

 

It's sort of interesting, I've noticed that KQ-tight is a really bad holding and seems not to be worth five points. And QJ-tight is obviously poor and not worth three points. But I haven't noticed that KJ-tight is nearly as bad for some reason, and AJ-tight seems like it's probably worth five points.

 

There must be some hard data on this somewhere.

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1 and it's not close despite the previous answers. AQT9x! And good controls on top of that. It's about halfway between 1NT and 2NT by my judgment.

agreed..and with Josh's later post as well. Not close.

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For what it's worth, I did a simple simulation. I gave responder fewer than 5 spades, fewer than 4 hearts, fewer than 6 diamonds, fewer than 5 clubs and not 4=4=1=4 -- meant to be a crude attempt to make NT the final contract.

 

HCP  9+ tricks at NT
6        24%
7        53%
8        71%
9        81%

 

Game should make a little more often than the double dummy result shows.

 

From this, it would seem that when responder has 7 (or more) HCP you really don't want the auction to go 1N-P.

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1C. It is definitely easier to find a club slam after 1C than after 1NT. Not everyone even has methods to find it no matter how cold or obvious that contract is dbl dummy, if NT was opened. If there is no slam, finding NT should not be difficult after a 1C opening. If it is MPs, I just MIGHT open 1NT. It is not that 1NT is a stupid bid, it is just that 1C is so much better.
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Hi,

 

1NT.

 

But I am not really in the upgrade business.

 

As it is, you have a nice 5 card suit, but KJ sec, i.e. one plus, one minus,

and this basically cancels each other out.

A positive feature is, that you are fairly control rich, ... 6 controls are the

expected value for a strong NT, so this actually says, that this is not so

special, so even this is not a big plus.

 

All in all I would say, that you will be pretty well placed, if you open 1NT,

sometimes you have a max, that is great.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

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I would upgrade. The KJ of diamonds is a minus but I'd consider it close to an upgrade if the diamonds were Kx and having the jack instead makes it clear.

 

People may disagree about the particular hand but I really don't understand these people saying they don't upgrade (or downgrade). Point count is only a rough approximation of value and you just have to look at other factors if you want to bid accurately. Choosing not to even try to exercise judgment and following rigid rules instead is not an option IMO.

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People may disagree about the particular hand but I really don't understand these people saying they don't upgrade (or downgrade). Point count is only a rough approximation of value and you just have to look at other factors if you want to bid accurately. Choosing not to even try to exercise judgment and following rigid rules instead is not an option IMO.

 

The problem is we don't know what features are good and what are bad. Some simuls suggests that 5 card suits are overrated when it comes to playing in NT.

For example I run simple simul. Given hand opposite 7-8hcp balanced without 8card major fit, then I run this hand:

KQ9 A83 KJ8 KQ84 with same constraints. The 2nd hand makes 3nt significantly more often btu no one would dream of calling it anything more than "normal" 18hcp.

HCP seems to be very accurate for NT contracts much less so for suit contracts.

Choosing the best opening bid seems to be very difficult task which I believe no human can solve at the table with any reasonable accuracy.

My intuition say: 1NT because :

a)interfering over 1NT is hard, finding any possible game very hard

b)leading to strong hand is difficult

c)I would rather say I have balanced hand with 15-17hcp than bid clubs saying nothing usefl to partner and quite a lot to opponents (lead D, don't lead C)

 

I see too many +'s of opening 1NT and I don't believe I can accurately upgrade anything but the most obvious cases.

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