Deevan Posted December 31, 2009 Report Share Posted December 31, 2009 The following hand is from a 24 board team match; against top notch opponents.Both Sides VUL. Your RHO bids 1NT(15-17)-P-3NT-PPP, you are on lead from: S-T32H-K6D-9753C-Q652 I wonder what is the right lead on this hand? Appreciate if the responses are grouped as follows:1) What is the correct lead, and why?2) Would the lead be different if CQ was C8? Rest of the hand is same. What score (out of 100%) would you assign to each of the following leads from the given hand:3)small S?4)HK?5)C2?6)S10? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nige1 Posted December 31, 2009 Report Share Posted December 31, 2009 The following hand is from a 24 board team match; against top notch opponents. Both Sides VUL. ♠ T32 ♥ K6 ♦ 9753 ♣ Q652Your RHO bids 1NT(15-17)-P-3NT-PPPI wonder what is the right lead on this hand? Appreciate if the responses are grouped as follows:1) What is the correct lead, and why?2) Would the lead be different if CQ was C8? Rest of the hand is same.What score (out of 100%) would you assign to each of the following leads from the given hand:3)small S?4)HK?5)C2?6)S10? IMO ♠x = 100, ♠T = 90, ♣x = 80, ♦x = 70, ♥K = 40.If ♣Q were ♣ x, then ♣x = 70.A major is more likely to work than a minor, but ♥K is over-committal. Arguably ♠T is better than ♠x Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pooltuna Posted December 31, 2009 Report Share Posted December 31, 2009 The following hand is from a 24 board team match; against top notch opponents.Both Sides VUL. Your RHO bids 1NT(15-17)-P-3NT-PPP, you are on lead from: S-T32H-K6D-9753C-Q652 I wonder what is the right lead on this hand? Appreciate if the responses are grouped as follows:1) What is the correct lead, and why?2) Would the lead be different if CQ was C8? Rest of the hand is same. What score (out of 100%) would you assign to each of the following leads from the given hand:3)small S?4)HK?5)C2?6)S10?1) I would try the ♥K as drastic measures look called for and the opps have made no effort to find a major suit fit plus I need to hit partner's suit to have a shot. In order of preference K♥>2♠>2♣>3♦ 2) no change but more drastic situation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted December 31, 2009 Report Share Posted December 31, 2009 1. Usually there's no such thing as the "correct" lead - there are just aggressive leads, passive leads, leads with a particular objective in mind, and default leads. I'd lead a diamond. You don't have to go mad just because they've bid game without inviting, and you don't have to lead a major just because they didn't bid Stayman. 2. No 3/5. I can't give a numerical score, but I don't hate either. 4/6. What's the score for "ugh"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonottawa Posted December 31, 2009 Report Share Posted December 31, 2009 ♥K is highest variance lead, could work really well or be disastrous. I'm a 4th best from longest and strongest here. If ♣Q is small ♣, wow. If I can somehow randomly choose among the 4 suits without drawing suspicion to myself, I do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted December 31, 2009 Report Share Posted December 31, 2009 Awesome, the first lead problem I can remember where the first 4 answers were 1 for each suit. Mark me down for a spade. I think a major is called for with no stayman and a hand this weak, but king of hearts is beyond too risky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P_Marlowe Posted December 31, 2009 Report Share Posted December 31, 2009 Hi, Since you are weak, you should try to hid partners suit.And the auction 1NT - 3NT indicates a major suit lead, since responder didnot use Stayman, and a 5 card major suit with the NT opener is of coursepossible, but ..., some partnership say "NO", some say "YES", so withoutany knowledge, you have at least a 50% chance, that the answer is "NO",and otherwise, there is still the chance, that opener does not have one. This means it is either hearts or spades, but the King of hearts is way too speculative, and since you only have 2 hearts, spade it is. #1 Spades#2 No, the hand got weaker, the reason for trying to hit partner get stronger#3 10 out of 10 what is your systemic agreement? spades gets 10, which card is a matter of lead agreement, you want to give partner as much information as possible, so you should stick with your agreement, and not trying to get creative.#4 0 out of 10#5 make it 4 out of 10#6 see #3 With kind regardsMarlowe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted January 1, 2010 Report Share Posted January 1, 2010 The following hand is from a 24 board team match; against top notch opponents.Both Sides VUL. Your RHO bids 1NT(15-17)-P-3NT-PPP, you are on lead from: S-T32H-K6D-9753C-Q652 I wonder what is the right lead on this hand? Appreciate if the responses are grouped as follows:1) What is the correct lead, and why?2) Would the lead be different if CQ was C8? Rest of the hand is same. What score (out of 100%) would you assign to each of the following leads from the given hand:3)small S?4)HK?5)C2?6)S10? 2 of clubs second choice close=ten of spades. rest zero. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nigel_k Posted January 1, 2010 Report Share Posted January 1, 2010 Basically agree with Marlowe. A spade is a bit less attacking than a heart but much less dangerous. I'd score: ♠2 100, ♣ 70, ♥ 50, ♦ 20, ♠10 0. I don't see a reason to consider 10♠ instead of a small one. I'm scoring it zero based on its logical merit though obviously it has a nonzero chance of success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deevan Posted January 1, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2010 Thanks all for your feedback, it was great. I have no idea what is "the" right lead, or the highest percentage lead! On the table, our opponent, a BBO STAR, held this hand, and led the HK in a flash. The contract went down quickly since dummy showed up with H Qxx; and, his partner held H AJxxx, the NT opener had H xxx. Our partners, excellent players, at the other table, led a small spade. We lost a game swing. I was hoping though to hear some comments like the following:-Major lead becomes abundantly clear without the CQ!-Small Spade might cause a problem; because against NT, I believe lead of a low card promises an honour. So, if partner happens to have SA and H AJxxx; he/she may not switch to H, placing a Spade honour with the leader!-Might the HK lead be better when you find partner with QJTxx and a side A; or find partner with JT9xxx with two side entries? Are these ideas really far fetched! or ancient! Who knows, I guess! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nigel_k Posted January 1, 2010 Report Share Posted January 1, 2010 A ten is an honour, though that is a consequence of the way scoring works at rubber bridge rather than an analysis of which leads work best. But I think a low spade does offer better chances of establishing tricks, especially if partner gains the lead next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 1, 2010 Report Share Posted January 1, 2010 I think a heart would stand out if we had 3, but having doubleton it is very hard to hit partner AND NOT delcarer as well. Weakness asks for agresiveness, clubs and spades sound best, but clubs can hardly give us 5 tricks so I'd go with a spade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdanno Posted January 1, 2010 Report Share Posted January 1, 2010 ♠=100, ♦=90, ♣=90, ♥=-10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted January 1, 2010 Report Share Posted January 1, 2010 I agree with cherdano, I don't feel very strongly about spades, diamonds or clubs, but would lead a spade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dake50 Posted January 1, 2010 Report Share Posted January 1, 2010 Are we setting this? Low chances. Now HK gains in comparison. Spectacular when right verses lost overtrick when wrong. Gross guess: 12% Sx set; HK set 22%; HK lost set 8%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fred Posted January 1, 2010 Report Share Posted January 1, 2010 Warning: Professional driver on closed course Leading the 10 from 10xx sometimes works wonders when you play Rusinow leads (where the 10 "promises" the Jack). Fred GitelmanBridge Base Inc.www.bridgebase.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluecalm Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 ♠=100, ♦=90, ♣=90, ♥=-10. Very simple and for sure imperfect simulation : 1000 hands. S is 15-17 balanced (5majors possible, no 5-4, no 6-3-3-2) N is 9-15 without 4card major or singleton anywhere No. of deals where specified card is winning (setting) lead: T♠ - 893♠ - 95K♥ - 1406♥ - 667/5♦ - 69any low ♣ - 52 This strongly suggest that K♥ is at least reasonable lead.My intuition before running this simulation was that club is the worst lead and diamond probably the best. Now tend to believe that Kh is best in the absence of strong arguments against it and some very good for it. EDIT : I run it one more time. This time responder has either 9-15 balanced without 4+card major or 10-15 any 4-3-3-3 (including major). 10k hands. No of deals where specific card is winning lead : T♠ - 8173/2♠ - 823K♥ - 10307/5♦ - 629low ♣- 555 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 Hi, I'd like to know how much is the results influenced by our lack of strenght. ( I think ♥K is good only because we are desperate) Could you please add ♦K to our hand and see the difference it makes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdanno Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 Maybe I am underestimating how desperate we are, but let me also point out that the ♥K lead very often does not lose a trick double dummy, where it would almost certainly lose that trick single dummy. (Imagine the suit being Kx xx JT987 AQxx around the table, with declarer having AQxx.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 yeah arend, but also spade and diamond leads are giving tricks single dummy more often than they do double dummy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 I was quite surprised by Bluecalm's simulation results, so I did my own simulation of 30 hands and decided how each lead would work single-dummy. The results agree approximately with Bluecalm's: Heart lead beats it: 3Heart lead may beat it: 1Spade lead beats it: 1Spade lead probably beats it: 1Club, diamond or spade may beat it: 1Making on any lead: 21Inconsistent with the bidding: 2 I'm still surprised. I noticed that when the contract was making a heart lead usually cost an overtrick. However, this isn't enough to justify not leading a heart: Even if we beat 3NT only 3/28 times and concede an overtrick 25/28 times, the expectation from a heart lead is still3/28 x 12 - 25/28 x 1 = +0.4 The hands and my code are below. The hands: S: A86 H: 52 D: AQJ84 C: 843 S: T32 S: J97 H: K6 H: T8743 D: 9753 D: KT C: Q652 C: KT9 S: KQ54 H: AQJ9 D: 62 C: AJ7 Probably making on any lead. C, D or S gives some chance. -------------------------- S: Q7 H: J84 D: K4 C: AK9743 S: T32 S: K8654 H: K6 H: 9753 D: 9753 D: QT8 C: Q652 C: J S: AJ9 H: AQT2 D: AJ62 C: T8 Making on any lead. -------------------------- S: J9 H: Q4 D: K862 C: AKT87 S: T32 S: 8764 H: K6 H: JT853 D: 9753 D: AQ C: Q652 C: 94 S: AKQ5 H: A972 D: JT4 C: J3 Making on any lead. -------------------------- S: AK8 H: 83 D: AQ82 C: T987 S: T32 S: J9754 H: K6 H: JT95 D: 9753 D: K4 C: Q652 C: J4 S: Q6 H: AQ742 D: JT6 C: AK3 Making on any lead. -------------------------- S: KQ9 H: JT3 D: JT6 C: K843 S: T32 S: 74 H: K6 H: Q9842 D: 9753 D: AQ84 C: Q652 C: JT S: AJ865 H: A75 D: K2 C: A97 Making on any lead. -------------------------- S: 754 H: AJ9 D: J62 C: AT97 S: T32 S: Q96 H: K6 H: T873 D: 9753 D: QT8 C: Q652 C: KJ3 S: AKJ8 H: Q542 D: AK4 C: 84 Making on any lead. -------------------------- S: 864 H: QJ42 D: K62 C: A94 S: T32 S: AKJ5 H: K6 H: T85 D: 9753 D: JT84 C: Q652 C: T7 S: Q97 H: A973 D: AQ C: KJ83 Making on any lead. -------------------------- S: A84 H: Q8 D: KJ864 C: KT4 S: T32 S: J96 H: K6 H: JT9432 D: 9753 D: A2 C: Q652 C: 83 S: KQ75 H: A75 D: QT C: AJ97 Making on any lead. -------------------------- S: AQ9 H: 53 D: Q64 C: KT974 S: T32 S: 7654 H: K6 H: AQJ987 D: 9753 D: J C: Q652 C: J3 S: KJ8 H: T42 D: AKT82 C: A8 H beats it. -------------------------- S: KQ87 H: QJ7 D: KJ4 C: J98 S: T32 S: J64 H: K6 H: A98542 D: 9753 D: Q C: Q652 C: T74 S: A95 H: T3 D: AT862 C: AK3 Making on any lead. -------------------------- S: J54 H: A42 D: QJT8 C: K73 S: T32 S: 87 H: K6 H: QT753 D: 9753 D: AK2 C: Q652 C: JT9 S: AKQ96 H: J98 D: 64 C: A84 H beats it (declarer will duck opening lead). -------------------------- S: 85 H: QT D: AT64 C: AJT74 S: T32 S: QJ974 H: K6 H: AJ72 D: 9753 D: J2 C: Q652 C: 83 S: AK6 H: 98543 D: KQ8 C: K9 Making on any lead. -------------------------- S: 654 H: AJ7 D: QJT82 C: A8 S: T32 S: K9 H: K6 H: T5432 D: 9753 D: A6 C: Q652 C: JT97 S: AQJ87 H: Q98 D: K4 C: K43 Making on any lead. -------------------------- S: J95 H: 92 D: AKQJ6 C: K73 S: T32 S: AQ87 H: K6 H: T873 D: 9753 D: 8 C: Q652 C: J984 S: K64 H: AQJ54 D: T42 C: AT Making on any lead. -------------------------- S: K64 H: 72 D: AKJ642 C: 43 S: T32 S: A85 H: K6 H: J9843 D: 9753 D: Q C: Q652 C: T987 S: QJ97 H: AQT5 D: T8 C: AKJ Making on any lead. -------------------------- S: KJ7 H: A98 D: KQJ4 C: T43 S: T32 S: AQ65 H: K6 H: T74 D: 9753 D: T62 C: Q652 C: J87 S: 984 H: QJ532 D: A8 C: AK9 Making on any lead. -------------------------- S: K64 H: J42 D: JT2 C: AK93 S: T32 S: 87 H: K6 H: AT9853 D: 9753 D: A86 C: Q652 C: T8 S: AQJ95 H: Q7 D: KQ4 C: J74 H may beat it (defence ducks second heart, so declarer had no reason to get clubs right). -------------------------- S: Q87 H: QJ73 D: KJ6 C: J43 S: T32 S: KJ95 H: K6 H: 9854 D: 9753 D: QT82 C: Q652 C: A S: A64 H: AT2 D: A4 C: KT987 S probably beats it (S10 prevents declarer's ducking; S2 probably causes declarer to play for K onside). -------------------------- S: A7 H: Q52 D: K8642 C: AT7 S: T32 S: J9865 H: K6 H: T94 D: 9753 D: AJ C: Q652 C: J98 S: KQ4 H: AJ873 D: QT C: K43 Making on any lead. -------------------------- S: 964 H: T5 D: AKQ84 C: T83 S: T32 S: 87 H: K6 H: AQJ942 D: 9753 D: JT C: Q652 C: KJ7 S: AKQJ5 H: 873 D: 62 C: A94 H beats it. -------------------------- S: 95 H: QT7 D: AKJT2 C: K94 S: T32 S: KQJ87 H: K6 H: 8532 D: 9753 D: 4 C: Q652 C: T83 S: A64 H: AJ94 D: Q86 C: AJ7 Making on any lead. -------------------------- S: J4 H: T3 D: QT8 C: AJT873 S: T32 S: AQ9876 H: K6 H: 97542 D: 9753 D: A4 C: Q652 C: --- S: K5 H: AQJ8 D: KJ62 C: K94 S beats it. -------------------------- S: 874 H: A3 D: Q6 C: AKT973 S: T32 S: Q65 H: K6 H: T8542 D: 9753 D: AJ84 C: Q652 C: 4 S: AKJ9 H: QJ97 D: KT2 C: J8 North would make slam try. -------------------------- S: J874 H: JT4 D: AKJ C: 983 S: T32 S: 5 H: K6 H: Q9753 D: 9753 D: Q62 C: Q652 C: AJT4 S: AKQ96 H: A82 D: T84 C: K7 Making on any lead. -------------------------- S: A97 H: T3 D: AT864 C: KJ4 S: T32 S: QJ86 H: K6 H: Q9874 D: 9753 D: Q2 C: Q652 C: T9 S: K54 H: AJ52 D: KJ C: A873 Making on any lead. -------------------------- S: Q97 H: 754 D: A82 C: A974 S: T32 S: 864 H: K6 H: QJ98 D: 9753 D: KT64 C: Q652 C: K8 S: AKJ5 H: AT32 D: QJ C: JT3 Making on any lead. -------------------------- S: 94 H: A9 D: KQT C: KJT743 S: T32 S: A8765 H: K6 H: Q742 D: 9753 D: 8642 C: Q652 C: --- S: KQJ H: JT853 D: AJ C: A98 N would make slam try. -------------------------- S: KJ9 H: 83 D: KQJ842 C: K9 S: T32 S: 76 H: K6 H: QJT754 D: 9753 D: 6 C: Q652 C: A873 S: AQ854 H: A92 D: AT C: JT4 Making on any lead. -------------------------- S: KJ5 H: 83 D: QJ84 C: AJ73 S: T32 S: 976 H: K6 H: JT972 D: 9753 D: A6 C: Q652 C: K94 S: AQ84 H: AQ54 D: KT2 C: T8 Making on any lead. -------------------------- S: K84 H: 9832 D: AQ6 C: AT8 S: T32 S: A976 H: K6 H: QT74 D: 9753 D: J8 C: Q652 C: 973 S: QJ5 H: AJ5 D: KT42 C: KJ4 Making on any lead. -------------------------- And my code: west is {T32 K6 9753 Q652} main { if {[1nt south] && [1nt_3nt north]} { accept } reject } ####################################################################################################################################################### proc 1nt {hand} { set hcp [hcp $hand] set ptn [$hand pattern] set shp [$hand shape] # 4333 or 4432, 15-17 if {$ptn == "4 3 3 3" || $ptn == "4 4 3 2"} { if {$hcp > 14 && $hcp < 18} { accept } reject } # 5332 or 22(54), 14-16 if {$ptn == "5 3 3 2" || $shp == "2 2 4 5" || $shp == "2 2 5 4"} { if {$hcp > 13 && $hcp < 17} { accept } reject } # 6m332, 13-16 if { $ptn == "6 3 2 2" && ([diamonds $hand] == 6 || [clubs $hand] == 6) } { if {$hcp > 12 && $hcp < 17} { accept } reject } reject } ####################################################################################################################################################### proc 1nt_3nt {hand} { set hcp [hcp $hand] set ptn [$hand pattern] set spades [spades $hand] set hearts [hearts $hand] # major-suit hands that wouldn't raise directly if {$spades > 4 || $hearts > 4} { reject } if {($spades == 4 || $hearts == 4) && $ptn != "4 3 3 3"} { reject } # 4333 or 4432, 10-15 if {$ptn == "4 3 3 3" || $ptn == "4 4 3 2"} { if {$hcp > 9 && $hcp < 16} { accept } reject } # 5332 or 22(54), 9-14 if {$ptn == "5 3 3 2" || $ptn == "5 4 2 2"} { if {$hcp > 8 && $hcp < 15} { accept } reject } # 6332, 8-13 if {$ptn == "6 3 2 2"} { if {$hcp > 7 && $hcp < 14} { accept } reject } reject } Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluecalm Posted January 2, 2010 Report Share Posted January 2, 2010 It would be great if it was possible to generate the hands using some kind of simulation software and give them to strong computer program to play. That should be much more reliable than double dummy analysis.Your analysis is great but it would take some time to reach significant number of hands :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluecalm Posted January 3, 2010 Report Share Posted January 3, 2010 Could you please add ♦K to our hand and see the difference it makes? New simul. 1000 hands. Our hand :T32 K6 K975 Q652.Opponent opens 15-17NT (5card major possible) and responder jumps to 3NT (9-14 balaced without 4+card major or any 4-3-3-3 10-15). The winning (setting) lead: T♠ - 1033♠ - 104K♥ - 889♦- 665[♦ - 702♣ - 76 All makes sense in my opinion. Now we are not desperate so leading spades is good. I wonder how meaningful is that opener can have 5card major but it can only be bad fo rmajor suit leads. I am pretty sure that including any 4-3-3-3 is also bad for major suit leads which suggest that against opponents who always stayaman leading spade in this example and Kh in the previous one is clear (and big) winner. I am going to find out how good the minor suit need to be to lead it. Is it possible that 4 card minor like QT8x is good enough ? What about KQTx ? Do you lead any 5 card minor ? If how strong it needs to be ? Results soon :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted January 3, 2010 Report Share Posted January 3, 2010 what suprises me now is that we have much less chances of beating this by leading ♥K than previously. I expected the number of heart beats to drop a bit, but droping from 140 to 88 by having more strenght sounds a bit too much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluecalm Posted January 3, 2010 Report Share Posted January 3, 2010 but droping from 140 to 88 by having more strenght sounds a bit too much. We didn't drop from 140. The first simul didn't include 4-3-3-3 hands with 4 card major in 3nt (they would stayman). The second one did. In the second one the score was 1030 (for 10k hands) so it's a drop from 103 to 88 not from 140 to 88. Seems like you have very good intuition noticing that it's too big a difference :) By they way from my experience those simuls are statistically significant after 1k hands. I am yet to see the case with big difference for different sets of 1000 hands. At least if the hands are "not wild". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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