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What's your lead?


Hanoi5

You lead...  

30 members have voted

  1. 1. You lead...

    • ...a spade
      9
    • ...a heart
      21
    • ...a diamond
      0
    • ...a club
      0


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Say you hold:

 

J8763

842

J5

Q84

 

You hear the following exchange between your opponents:

 

1NT 2

2 5NT(big hand)

7NT(I didn't open with 14)

 

Your lead sir/madam. Any comments will be appreciated.

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Say you hold J8763 842 J5 Q84

1NT 2

2 5NT(big hand)

7NT(I didn't open with 14)

Your lead sir/madam. Any comments will be appreciated.

IMO = 10, = 7, = 4, = 2.

Agree with Fluffy that may be safest. Dummy is more likely to hold 4 than 4

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I lead a Heart. Spade would be my 2nd choice.

1. A Heart may help declarer to guess the suit but will seldom offer the 13th trick.

2. A spade might also help him to guess the suit, *and* it may also offer the 13th trick (ATx//K9x, etc.).

 

Anyway, if declarer can count my Spades he may well guess the Hearts in pard's hand (and misguess the Clubs hopefuly :)), so I'm rather confident about this Heart lead. If I had the 9xx (or worse : Txx), it would be tougher.

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I sympathize with a heart if partner can be guaranteed to have 0, but do you change your mind if dummy is known to be a very aggressive bidder, and partner could have a queen or even a king?

 

I guess I feel like a spade is most passive, it loses when their side has AKQ and 10 of spades or AKQ and 9 AND 4 cards in dummy AND they pick up the suit. Heart loses sometimes when partner has Jxxx or Qxx too...

 

(no I have no idea who it was that had to make this lead :unsure:)

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I guess I feel like a spade is most passive, it loses when their side has AKQ and 10 of spades or AKQ and 9 AND 4 cards in dummy AND they pick up the suit. Heart loses sometimes when partner has Jxxx or Qxx too...

Now which would you say is more likely?

 

1. they have AKQ and T or 9 of spades

2. partner has specifically Jxxx or Qxx of hearts (they bid grand on 33 or 32 hcp and they're missing the worst holding for a heart lead)

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I guess I feel like a spade is most passive, it loses when their side has AKQ and 10 of spades or AKQ and 9 AND 4 cards in dummy AND they pick up the suit. Heart loses sometimes when

What about declarer having ATx in dummy facing K9x in Hand, or any equivalent ? (any 6 cards including AKT9xx spades with split AK are dangerous holdings).

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I thought it was close yesterday. Then I talked to cherdano last night. Now I feel dumb for not realizing how obvious a heart was.

 

How about, for LHO / RHO in spades:

HHxx / HT

HHxx / HTx and partner stiff 9

HH9x / H6 (or are you leading the 8?)

HHTx / Hx where he won't go right if you don't lead them, but may put in the ten if you do.

 

Whereas in hearts, partner probably just has nothing.

 

Edit: Ok we have the 6, scratch that third one! Unless it's H5 and someone leads the low one here...

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The heart seemed automatic to me when I looked at the hand, and nothing I later read changed my mind.

 

Put another way: the heart rarely, if ever, gives declarer something he can't get anyway...altho it will sometimes give him something he probably wouldn't play for: KQxx opposite A10, as an easy example. But any other lead may well give him something that he could never play for otherwise.

 

Which heart? The top one is the usual one and while it is somewhat revealing, it may be important for partner to have a count on this hand anyway so I am not going to try to cloud anyone's mind with a low one.

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Would either opponent try to steal a grand swing on 6+minor semi-solid/solid?

Does that change the passive attitude for opening lead?

 

I had a similar problem vs. 6NT blast with 7xD solid. We had CK + CA cashing and opening leader decided C-opening lead lessening the legitimate chances, but killing the steal.

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