Airplane safety

[jdonn]

Britain's system worked, anyway - he was prohibited from returning to the UK by its Border Agency.  That he obtained and retained a Visa is a sign that our "system" didn't work.

I saw someone state on CNN yesterday that his British Visa was revoked for some reason totally unrelated to the threat of terrorism and that it was just a coincidence. I can't remember what the reason was or who said it.

 

Also I remember hearing he tried to detonate the bomb in his seat because it was directly over the wing and the bathroom wasn't. Again I can't really verify that, or in the case of that claim maybe no one can.

[Winstonm]

Sometimes you get lucky, though. But when you drop a singleton king for no apparent reason in an 8-card fit, you shouldn't take too much credit when it works

 

For your king-dropping analogy to be correct, a drunk passenger would have had to have been jostled by turbulence just at the right moment and drop his Jim Beam onto the just lit fuse of the bomb, putting it out.

 

It may not be much, but there was a reason this plot failed. It wasn't simply blind luck.

 

I don't know if you got a chance to read the link I posted from Cato, but I thought the author made several excellent points concerning our "system" of security.

 

First, he made it clear that there is no single "system" - the system itself is made of layer upon layer. The last layer is public awareness and participation, and it appears this final layer worked well enough for other passengers to subdue al-Skivvies Haut "N Crotch.

 

So in this sense the system did work - al-Skivvies burned off his dick, and the plane landed safely - but it did not work particularly well or even as well as we should expect.

 

Maybe it was table feel.

[Lobowolf]

Sometimes you get lucky, though. But when you drop a singleton king for no apparent reason in an 8-card fit, you shouldn't take too much credit when it works

 

For your king-dropping analogy to be correct, a drunk passenger would have had to have been jostled by turbulence just at the right moment and drop his Jim Beam onto the just lit fuse of the bomb, putting it out.

 

It may not be much, but there was a reason this plot failed. It wasn't simply blind luck.

 

I don't know if you got a chance to read the link I posted from Cato, but I thought the author made several excellent points concerning our "system" of security.

 

First, he made it clear that there is no single "system" - the system itself is made of layer upon layer. The last layer is public awareness and participation, and it appears this final layer worked well enough for other passengers to subdue al-Skivvies Haut "N Crotch.

 

So in this sense the system did work - al-Skivvies burned off his dick, and the plane landed safely - but it did not work particularly well or even as well as we should expect.

 

Maybe it was table feel.

Yeah, the bridge analogy was a bad one. Maybe it's more like bidding a slam that worked because a finesse was on and a side-suit split 3-3. Great that worked, but it's hardly a system victory.

[mike777]

He was denied a UK visa because he said he was going to attend a nonexistant university. In the UK this is very common and they have alot of practice in denying this type of application.

 

 

More interesting is the fact that so many want to deny him Miranda rights. Many seem to argue that the USA had the option too deny but many others say the USA did not.

[Lobowolf]

Britain's system worked, anyway - he was prohibited from returning to the UK by its Border Agency.  That he obtained and retained a Visa is a sign that our "system" didn't work.

I saw someone state on CNN yesterday that his British Visa was revoked for some reason totally unrelated to the threat of terrorism and that it was just a coincidence. I can't remember what the reason was or who said it.

 

Also I remember hearing he tried to detonate the bomb in his seat because it was directly over the wing and the bathroom wasn't. Again I can't really verify that, or in the case of that claim maybe no one can.

“He was refused entry on grounds that he was applying to study at an educational establishment that we didn’t consider to be genuine,” a Whitehall official said.

[Winstonm]

Sometimes you get lucky, though. But when you drop a singleton king for no apparent reason in an 8-card fit, you shouldn't take too much credit when it works

 

For your king-dropping analogy to be correct, a drunk passenger would have had to have been jostled by turbulence just at the right moment and drop his Jim Beam onto the just lit fuse of the bomb, putting it out.

 

It may not be much, but there was a reason this plot failed. It wasn't simply blind luck.

 

I don't know if you got a chance to read the link I posted from Cato, but I thought the author made several excellent points concerning our "system" of security.

 

First, he made it clear that there is no single "system" - the system itself is made of layer upon layer. The last layer is public awareness and participation, and it appears this final layer worked well enough for other passengers to subdue al-Skivvies Haut "N Crotch.

 

So in this sense the system did work - al-Skivvies burned off his dick, and the plane landed safely - but it did not work particularly well or even as well as we should expect.

 

Maybe it was table feel.

Yeah, the bridge analogy was a bad one. Maybe it's more like bidding a slam that worked because a finesse was on and a side-suit split 3-3. Great that worked, but it's hardly a system victory.

Much better analogy. I wouldn't put too much stock in Napolitano backing away from her claim the system worked - too difficult politically to explain what you mean, even if right.

 

However, I agree the system only worked partially - fortunately, the important part: the plane landed safely. Still, there is much room for improvement in the future - hopefully we can at least reach 8-card trump fits.

[Lobowolf]

Much better analogy. I wouldn't put too much stock in Napolitano backing away from her claim the system worked

I don't put much stock in political soundbites in general, either the claim that it worked, or the backing off of the original claim. I think that most people would view the fortunate outcome more as being in spite of the system than because of it (and I think they'd be right). Regardless, it was a good outcome and hopefully a good learning experience.

[blackshoe]

STRATFOR pointed out that there are still a lot of holes in the system, one of them being the time it takes for intel to get from those who have it to those who need to act on it. STRATFOR also suggests that the way forward is to plug these holes rather than engage in showy but futile moves designed, really, to show John Q. Public that we are Doing Something. (My characterization, but I think it makes their point).

[Winstonm]

The one thing we must all realize is that there is no perfect safety system. It is possible that some time another terrorist will succeed. If that happens, I think it important for the U.S. to respond in a manner that best protects against future attacks.

 

As I said earlier, IMO, the best ways to address terrorist attempts is to trivialize and ridicule the terrorist, make him and his act seem little and small and insignificant - painting a picture to prospective terrorists that there is no mystical hero status to be gained by attacking a country that refuses to be terrorized.

 

In the event of success, I think it is better to emphasize the sadness of human loss rather than galvanize on threats and armed reaction. By making the victims human and innocent the entire episode is shown to be an act of brutal thugs creating sadness and loss - and not a picture of freedom fighter heroes engaging in acts of war.

 

Again, one of the layers of fighting terrorism is to thwart the recruitment of potential future actors - and I believe our response to any attempt or successful attack should have an organized and planned method of response.

[mike777]

Our response so far

 

1) Make air travel insane and difficult

2) shut down embassy

[Fluffy]

mm I though this meassures were overreacting, but then I did some math:

 

300 passengers, 50 years of average life expectancy (probably should be lower), 365 days 24 hours.... 131.400.000 hours of life wasted on a bomb.

 

1 hour, for 100.000.000 passengers/year is worth it if it gets rid of a single attack.

[jdonn]

mm I though this meassures were overreacting, but then I did some math:

 

300 passengers, 50 years of average life expectancy (probably should be lower), 365 days 24 hours.... 131.400.000 hours of life wasted on a bomb.

 

1 hour, for 100.000.000 passengers/year is worth it if it gets rid of a single attack.

An economist would agree, but 99,999,900 people might disagree. Also there are other considerations, such as the money spent to prevent an attack. Or that there might be a better way to prevent one. Or that some of those people you cost an hour of time miss their flight and lose much more. Or that all the people rushing to make their flights cause more traffic on the highway and cost a lot more people time. You can't reach a conclusion about something this complicated by just comparing overall efficiency in the way you are trying to do.

[hotShot]

mm I though this meassures were overreacting, but then I did some math:

 

300 passengers, 50 years of average life expectancy (probably should be lower), 365 days 24 hours.... 131.400.000 hours of life wasted on a bomb.

 

1 hour, for 100.000.000 passengers/year is worth it if it gets rid of a single attack.

From the year 2007 the number of passengers handled by American airports:

Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport______ 89,38 Mio. 2007
Chicago O'Hare International Airport__________________ 76,18 Mio. 2007
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport_______________ 59,79 Mio. 2007
Los Angeles International Airport_____________________ 59,50 Mio. 2008
Denver International Airport__________________________ 49,87 Mio. 2007
Las Vegas McCarran International Airport______________ 47,73 Mio. 2007
New York John F. Kennedy International Airport________ 47,53 Mio. 2007
Houston George Bush Intercontinental Airport__________ 42,98 Mio. 2007
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport______________ 42,20 Mio. 2007
Flughafen Orlando_____________________________________ 36,48 Mio. 2007
Newark Liberty International Airport__________________ 36,41 Mio. 2007
Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport_____________ 35,97 Mio. 2007
San Francisco International Airport____________________35,79 Mio. 2007
Minneapolis-Saint Paul International____________________35,16 Mio. 2007
Miami International Airport_____________________________ 33,74 Mio. 2007
Flughafen Charlotte_____________________________________ 33,17 Mio. 2007
Flughafen Philadelphia__________________________________ 32,21 Mio. 2007
Seattle-Tacoma International Airport____________________ 31,30 Mio. 2007
Boston Edward Lawrence Logan International Airport______ 28,10 Mio. 2007
Flughafen New York-LaGuardia____________________________ 25,30 Mio. 2007

 

The 3 airports of New York (JFK, Newark, LaGuardia) alone reach the 100.000.000 passengers you assumed.

[Fluffy]

I could sense my numbers were wrong :/. well then lets get them get ripped :D

[PassedOut]

Thinking outside the box, the Obama administration has figured out a way to improve airport safety and cut health care costs at the same time: Utilizing full body scans

 

In what some in the White House are calling a "win/win" solution to the nation's airport security and health care reform problems, starting next month U.S. airports will begin conducting full body scans that will double as annual physical checkups.

This will help the airlines, too, as everyone will be required to fly at least once per year.

:)

[cherdanno]

Uhm, I think even the most optimistic TSA freaks won't expect the additional security to reduce the number of successful airplane bombs by one per year.

[neilkaz]

Here's today's good news ...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100107/ap_on_...port_evacuation

 

A little incompetance and a huge delay and wasted resources result. I do think that many airports need to hire a better level of employee and pay them better.

 

.. neilkaz ..

[neilkaz]

And here we see another example of government run amok.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/14/nyregion...no_interstitial

[hotShot]

Sorry for this off-topic post, but does anybody know when medicine will allow brain transplants?