Two big hands

[jdonn]

I agree the sims show me 4NT is clear. I bid it because I wasn't at all sure my feeling was right and because it would just be weird not to with a balanced 19. My feeling is confirmed as wrong. They do also confirm what I felt much more strongly and what everyone seems to agree, that 6NT is an overbid.

[Jlall]

How about trying to find partner's shape. If he has 5 clubs, our hand improves a lot. Also, if he has four hearts, our hand improves a lot (KQJ opp Axx is wastage, but opposite Axxx it's great).

 

Starting with 2D will help us find slam opposite Kx Axxx xx Axxxx/ Kx Txxx Kx AJxxx type hands that 4N will miss. We will be able to find out this shape via 1C-1S-1N-2D-2H-2N-3C.

 

Against that, bidding 2D may help pinpoint the lead against us when partner has something like Kxx Axx Jx AJxxx, and we make 6N when they don't lead a diamond and spades come up 3-3.

[chasetb]

1.) I am bidding 1♦ (partner can still bid 1♠ even when balanced, or could be 4-(4-1)-4). Your suit alone screams NO TRUMP, but I'd be worried about duplication in a slam contract, not to mention having enough HCP. When partner rebids, you will have a good idea on where to place the final contract (I'll still look over a 1NT rebid, but I would prefer any other bid). Besides, since you all your values are bunched together, it might be better to hide partner's hand if you can, so they can't potentially lead through a tenace.

 

2.) As 4NT then would mean RKC for ♥ for me, I am bidding that.

[Jlall]

Also, many people, especially on this forum, might rebid 1N with 1435. Getting to 6C opposite that shape could be a big winner, and we need very little for slam then (x Txxx KQx AJxxx). We could also need to be in 6C opposite 2425 hands where partner has KQ tight of one pointed suit, and we only have 1 stopper in the other pointed suit, and we have to knock something out (eg Jx Axxx KQ J9xxx).

[Jlall]

Also opposite 2245, it is easy to see how 6C could be better than 6N because partner can pitch his spade on the heart and then ruff a diamond, ie xx Ax Kxxx AJxxx. This hand probably passes 4N, but getting to 6C is possible after 2D. Also, if 1345 is possible for a 1N rebid for you, even more reason to check on partner's shape since 6C is going to be right veryyyy often opposite that shape.

 

Basically there is a lot of room between 1N and 4N, and I don't see any reason to be blasting. In general I think people bid 4N far too often rather than using their NMF system. I think by bidding 2D we will be able to get to some slams that would be missed because partner would pass 4N.

[TimG]

My constraints were: North is balanced (5332 or 4432 or 4333) without 4 spades, and with exactly 3=4=3=3 or 4+ clubs.

I forgot to include 3=4=3=3. I'll include that shape and rerun to see if my numbers come closer to yours.

 

Tim

[TimG]

We make 6N 38.605% out of 20000 times

With 12 hcp we make 6N 1949 out of 9541 times

With 13 hcp we make 6N 2941 out of 6394 times

With 14 hcp we make 6N 2831 out of 4065 times

(That's 20.4%, 46.0% and 69.6%.)

My constrainst were: North is balanced (5332 or 4432 or 4333) without 4 spades, and with exactly 3=4=3=3 or 4+ clubs.

I get 22% (9495), 48% (6362), 74% (4143) after adding in the 3=4=3=3s and increasing the sample size to 20,000. I imagine the difference is big enough to mean that we've done something slightly different in our samples, i.e. one of us has done something wrong. I already left one shape out of my original sample, so I'm willing to concede that it's probably me that made the error.

 

Edit:

 

I used:

 

shape(south, 2335 + 3235 + 3325 + 2434 + 3424 + 3334 + 2344 + 3244 + 3433)

 

to produce these numbers.

[whereagles]

late to this, but here it goes

 

Hand 1: KISS approach. 1♠, then 6NT over any min rebid.

 

Hand 2: 4♣, which should be a cue in supp or hearts, as it's past the obvious 3NT bid. If there's a chance pard misunderstands, 4NT and wish me luck.