eyhung Posted December 20, 2009 Report Share Posted December 20, 2009 I looked at some of the simulated hands and realized that there were some hands where East (partner of opening leader) would overcall 1S, improving the results of the spade lead. After adding a primitive pass_over_1H filter for East (so no hands with 8 HCP and 5 spades, few hands with 6 spades, no takeout doubles of 1H, no 2C overcalls, etc.), and allowing North (dummy) to have 4 spades or 5 hearts in a balanced hand when the combined count is known to be 28 HCP, I get the following results for 1000 hands: Spade lead = 10.461SD = 1.430568252662393Diamond lead = 10.663SD = 1.2381292194128852Club lead = 10.632SD = 1.2783623157032638 Spade better than Club = 228Club better than Spade = 270 Spade better than Diamond = 234Diamond better than Spade = 252 Diamond better than Club = 36Club better than Diamond = 61 However, if we go back to the simple dummy constraints, where dummy always tries to investigate for a 8-card major-suit fit if one is possible (1000 hands): Spade lead = 10.215SD = 1.4376515022222305Diamond lead = 10.488SD = 1.2959689562391281Club lead = 10.459SD = 1.3296943585226983 Spade better than Club = 262Club better than Spade = 238 Spade better than Diamond = 265Diamond better than Spade = 219 Diamond better than Club = 44Club better than Diamond = 69 So it looks like a spade is actually the worst at BAM dbl dummy vs. Justin-type players, despite having the best trick average (you are more likely to gain multiple tricks on a spade lead, but the lead loses the board more frequently). Vs. typical Norths who always look for an 8-card major-suit fit, the spade is best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyhung Posted December 20, 2009 Report Share Posted December 20, 2009 I had two similar opening lead problems over the last week, except the suit was Axxx instead of AJxx. I'd be curious to know how much the presence of the J makes (my guess is a LOT). Same hand with the S6 instead of the SJ and non-Justin dummy : Spade lead = 10.434SD = 1.251883066109296Diamond lead = 10.727SD = 1.0842724042631777Club lead = 10.652SD = 1.1993057718256541Spade better than Club = 232Club better than Spade = 150Spade better than Diamond = 242Diamond better than Spade = 116Diamond better than Club = 49Club better than Diamond = 104 Looks like a spade is a huge winner now at BAM -- which confirms Evan's findings that AJxx is a really poor suit to lead from a trick-blowing perspective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted December 21, 2009 Report Share Posted December 21, 2009 However, if we go back to the simple dummy constraints, where dummy always tries to investigate for a 8-card major-suit fit if one is possible (1000 hands): If responder investigates with 3♣, that gives partner a chance to make a lead directing double some of the time that a club lead is best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sathyab Posted December 21, 2009 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2009 I looked at some of the simulated hands and realized that there were some hands where East (partner of opening leader) would overcall 1S, improving the results of the spade lead. After adding a primitive pass_over_1H filter for East (so no hands with 8 HCP and 5 spades, few hands with 6 spades, no takeout doubles of 1H, no 2C overcalls, etc.), and allowing North (dummy) to have 4 spades or 5 hearts in a balanced hand when the combined count is known to be 28 HCP, I get the following results for 1000 hands: Spade lead = 10.461SD = 1.430568252662393Diamond lead = 10.663SD = 1.2381292194128852Club lead = 10.632SD = 1.2783623157032638 Spade better than Club = 228Club better than Spade = 270 Spade better than Diamond = 234Diamond better than Spade = 252 Diamond better than Club = 36Club better than Diamond = 61 However, if we go back to the simple dummy constraints, where dummy always tries to investigate for a 8-card major-suit fit if one is possible (1000 hands): Spade lead = 10.215SD = 1.4376515022222305Diamond lead = 10.488SD = 1.2959689562391281Club lead = 10.459SD = 1.3296943585226983 Spade better than Club = 262Club better than Spade = 238 Spade better than Diamond = 265Diamond better than Spade = 219 Diamond better than Club = 44Club better than Diamond = 69 So it looks like a spade is actually the worst at BAM dbl dummy vs. Justin-type players, despite having the best trick average (you are more likely to gain multiple tricks on a spade lead, but the lead loses the board more frequently). Vs. typical Norths who always look for an 8-card major-suit fit, the spade is best.If you have a combined HCP in the range of 28-30 with two balanced/semi-balanced hands I think a 5-3 major fit produces almost as many or more tricks or at NT as it does in a major suit. There were several examples from LM pairs and Blue Ribbon pairs. But it's probably rarer for a 4-4 major fit not to outperform 3nt with normal breaks. So my feeling is that LHO is a lot more likely to have five hearts and still bid 3nt rather than 4-4 in majors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sathyab Posted December 21, 2009 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2009 Thanks for all the input and the Sim results. Here's the full hand: [hv=d=s&v=e&n=st9hkt75djt62ca75&w=saj54hj864d974c86&e=sq732h93dq3ckt942&s=sk86haq2dak85cqj3]399|300|Scoring: BAM1d-1h2n-3n[/hv] ♠ lead works a trick better than either ♣ or ♦. After a ♠ lead, double dummy declarer can still finesse the ♥J, then ♦s and make 10 tricks. But in practice he's likley to make only 9 and that's what happened at teammates' table. Tired of leading fourth best from balanced hands and always wondering at dinner break why I did, I decided to go passive and lead a ♣. Partner took the King and saw no reason to attack ♠s. Had he had the ♠8, this would have cost us big. In any case he continued ♣s, taken in dummy, ♦ finesse. Soon declarer discovered that I had 3-2 in the minors and therefore not more than 4 ♠s and finessed ♥s confidently after partner followed to rounds of the suit, making 4 :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkDean Posted December 21, 2009 Report Share Posted December 21, 2009 I guess this might be a really bad lead from nobody else even mentioning it, but I would lead a heart. I really hate leading from any four card holding which includes the ace, particularly on this auction, and I think there is a decent chance I will cut down on declarer's communication. Obviously, this may cost a trick in hearts, and yes it is the only suit where we know partner has fewer than 4 cards, but for some reason it appeals to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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