3 decisions from last night

[jdonn]

In your world, you never lose a trick from AKQ10xxx?

You are totally misrepresenting me.

As long as diamonds come in we essentially need one of the following:

There are also the possibilities of a diamond lead from LHO when they are xx - Jxxx or x x Jxxx around the table btw.

 

And you expect that LHO will lead from the club Queen after you overcall 7♦? Wow.

You are again totally misrepresenting me!

- JT (or maybe J9) of clubs and a club lead

Not only did I never mention a club lead from the queen, the holdings I mentioned were specifically chosen to make it clear we would gain against a club lead NOT from the queen.

 

As for them saving... no-one is saving when they hold a diamond trick...

Well that is definitely true. But how about when their partner holds a diamond trick? How about when they have no idea whether or not they hold a club trick?

 

As for misdefense, I want to be nice but you are exagerating so far it's not even funny. Experts misdefend all the time, advanced players even moreso. What if it's a player with Jxx(x)(x) of clubs who guards the suit? What if they already gave up the contract with a bad lead?

 

Of course the actual hand proves nothing but partner has a working 0 count and the grand was cold. 40%?!? Come on...

[gwnn]

why hasn't anyone made the simulation? :(

[nigel_k]

I ran a simulation for 10,000 hands:

 

13 tricks: 5772 times

12 tricks: 3670 times

11 or less: 558 times

 

For the 2S opening I made the conditions 5+ HCP and exactly six cards or 3-4 HCP and exactly seven cards. Maybe other assumptions are more accurate but this was easy to program and seemed about right.

 

So assuming the other table always bids 6♦ and there are no sacrifices, your expectation from bidding the grand is:

 

11 * 5772/10000 - 14 * 3670/10000 - 2 * 558/10000 = +1.1 IMPs per board.

 

Of course they may misdefend as others have noted, but you could also misplay - eg by crossing with a diamond to finesse clubs and losing to Qx on your left. Or maybe partner has eg Jxxx of hearts and Jx of diamonds and you have to guess whether to try for a discard or drop QC. It's obviously also not possible to work out how much you might improve your chances of success by bidding the hand more slowly.

 

I think I still prefer my original choice which was to double and play 6♦ if nothing interesting happens, but I am much less confident about it.

[gwnn]

Fair enough. I will be punting more often from now on.

[Codo]

even more? OMG ^^

[P_Marlowe]

Hi

 

#1 X, 3S would be Michaels for us, not really needed in the context,

but ...

#2 3D, I am forcing to game, I show 5-4

#3 3D

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[jdonn]

Fair enough. I will be punting more often from now on.

5772/(5772+3670) = 61.13%. You are a man of your word. It was 1% too good!

[ArtK78]

I note that several posters suggested doubling on the first hand.

 

The thought of defending 2♠x on these cards makes me violently ill.

 

I suggest that the next time you reach for the red card after an opponent's preempt, you consider how you will feel if it goes all pass? If you are about to throw up, then reconsider.

[gwnn]

haha I thought it was only 57% but I thought 60% was a bit too high

[jdonn]

haha I thought it was only 57% but I thought 60% was a bit too high

I ignorred when the small slam goes down. Had to get it to 60% somehow.

[Codo]

I note that several posters suggested doubling on the first hand.

 

The thought of defending 2♠x on these cards makes me violently ill.

 

I suggest that the next time you reach for the red card after an opponent's preempt, you consider how you will feel if it goes all pass? If you are about to throw up, then reconsider.

Hmm if your partener passes, your partner promises about 2 spade tricks, you have a zillion tricks in the minors, so it should be at least -4.

And if the hearts run, it well may be -6.

 

But normally this won't happen anyhow, the chance that partner has a penalty pass are remote.

[Fluffy]

I must laugh at anyone who suggested 2♦ on 2 over 3♦ or the conservative 2NT, last time I checked the majors scored better than the minors, and game scored also better than partscore.