I'll probbaly get LOLed just for posting this

[gnasher]

[hv=d=s&v=e&s=s108xhaq93djxxcjxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

pass 2♥ dbl 3♥

pass pass dbl pass[/hv]

What would you do?

[jdonn]

Must not say it.... must not say it...

[jonottawa]

Would you settle for a NEXT ?

[pooltuna]

[hv=d=s&v=e&s=s108xhaq93djxxcjxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

pass 2♥ dbl 3♥

pass pass dbl pass[/hv]

What would you do?

plausible calls appear to be pass, 3♠, and 3NT. My order of preference is pass>>3NT>>>3♠

 

GOG :rolleyes:

[neilkaz]

If I don't pass here, when will I ever pass ?

[kenrexford]

They are red, and we are white, right?

[Trinidad]

O [sdd/ Ey[/ : P :

 

Tol

[gwnn]

114-117-114.

[Old York]

I am neither advanced nor expert, so I would be forced to trust my partner and pass

However, I would be sorely tempted to trust my vulnerable opponents and bid 3♠, but this comment could be better saved for the post-mortem, when it transpires that partner overbid his hand because of the heart void

 

Tony

[neilkaz]

I am neither advanced nor expert, so I would be forced to trust my partner and pass

However, I would be sorely tempted to trust my vulnerable opponents and bid 3♠, but this comment could be better saved for the post-mortem, when it transpires that partner overbid his hand because of the heart void

 

Tony

I would bid 3NT with this hand which sure seems like at least a double stop, WAY before I'd dream of 3♠ with a weak 3 bagger and no ruffing values and noting that PD failed to OC ♠.

 

However, even vul opps can get carried away with the raise to 3♥ over the double. I'll still pass.

[billw55]

I buck the trend and bid 3NT. I figure ♥KJ or KT on my left is almost 100%, so I might end up with only one trump trick on defense, pending dummy's entry situation. Furthermore T8x, Jxx, Jxx rate to be worth zippo on defense, but much more on offense when partner has ostensibly shown at least something in all three suits.

 

This reminds me a lot of a hand I played a while back. Lefty opened 2♠, partner cracked it, and I was staring at ♠KJxxx. I left it in, and they made it. I wasn't alone by a long shot, but I still thought it had some learning value.

[mikeh]

Sometimes the hardest thing to do is the obvious. If S is remotely like me, his or her reaction will be to try to think of why pass might be wrong...and I am sure an imaginative S will soon come up with a number of low frequency holdings.

 

Any call other than pass rates one or more of several 3 letter acronyms that come to mind....only one of which begins with L....

 

This does NOT mean that I am 100% sure that this call will work best on any one particular hand consistent with the auction....maybe LHO is stepping out with some 3=5=5=0 including KJ108x in trump and RHO has a wonderful 4=4=0=5 or the like, and I can't stop them taking 8 trump tricks and a side winner. Such is life.

 

More often, rho is a law fanatic and just guessed wrong.

[Fluffy]

opponents are vulnerable, and opened in second position, and partner might be stretching with a void. I don't find it so hard to picture a hand where 3NT scores better than 3♥X, but its just not %.

[Jlall]

Gnasher... wtf?! You knew what we'd all say, would like to hear your reasoning on why passing is bad. Just because of the vul meaning that LHO probably has the good hearts, and RHO must have a good hand/shape to raise at this vul with 3 bad trumps?

 

Interesting I guess...but I'm just gonna pass.

[Jlall]

Oh and partner will def make a bad lead since he has no trumps and we have no honors anywhere else. I guess a case could be made here, but I don't think partner should reopen very light with a void because we are gonna pass a lot.

[jdonn]

Gnasher... wtf?! You knew what we'd all say, would like to hear your reasoning on why passing is bad. Just because of the vul meaning that LHO probably has the good hearts, and RHO must have a good hand/shape to raise at this vul with 3 bad trumps?

I assumed he posted it to settle a bet or something like that.

[MFA]

Yes, pass is quite obvious.

[gnasher]

OK, here's the case, part of which has been made by others:

- There's no harm in assuming that opponents are sane.

- If they're sane, the hearts are 6-0-3 around the table and LHO has ♥KJ10.

- It's quite likely that they each have a singleton.

- I probably have no entry for drawing trumps.

- Whatever high cards they have outside hearts will mostly be on the right, providing convenient entries for a trump coup.

- It's not impossible that they'll take two ruffs in dummy, four ruffs in hand, two side winners, and ♥K in the ending. How many tricks is that?

- It is quite hard to imagine a layout where they go for more than 500.

- 3NT by our side is probably cold. My secondary honours will both protect us against RHO's high cards and make it easy to set up partner's long cards.

 

This was the actual hand:

[hv=d=&v=&n=skj9hjdakxxckqxxx&w=sqhk108765dxxc10987&e=saxxxxxh42dq109xca&s=s108xhaq93djxxcjxx]399|300|[/hv]

As you see, both opponents were barking mad, so my first premise was incorrect. Partner had an unbelievably good heart holding given the bidding. The rest of my analysis was, however, reasonably accurate: we can't get more than 500 from 3♥ (eg heart to the king, spade, spade ruff, club, spade ruff, club ruff, spade), and 3NT is unbeatable, even the way that I played it.

 

Now let's move a couple of cards around to make the bidding more believable:

[hv=d=&v=&n=skj9hjdakxxckqxxx&w=sqhk108765dxxc10987&e=saxxxxxh42dq109xca&s=s108xhaq93djxxcjxx]399|300|[/hv]

Now everybody has their bid, more or less. I haven't asked Deep Finesse's opinion, but it seems quite hard to beat 3♥. 3NT is, of course, still cold.

[jonottawa]

After ♥ - ♥ you stop me from taking 3♣ 2♦ and 2♥ how now?

[jdonn]

After ♥ - ♥ you stop me from taking 3♣ 2♦ and 2♥ how now?

Winning the heart return cheaply, ruffing two spades in hand, and exiting anything. West takes your trump return, two spade ruffs, two aces, and eventually the KT of trumps since the opponents are stuck on lead. Strictly speaking you won't get your second trump trick.

[jdonn]

I usually don't do this (any more) but since you listed so many points I'll try to respond to them individually.

 

- There's no harm in assuming that opponents are sane.

Well there is some harm since they might not be, but sure let's go with it.

 

- If they're sane, the hearts are 6-0-3 around the table and LHO has ♥KJ10.

West couldn't open a weak 2 vul with 'just' the KJ of hearts if his hand was otherwise appropriate?

 

- It's quite likely that they each have a singleton.

I don't know what you mean by quite likely, but it's very far from certain. If there is a 70% chance in each case that the player has a singleton, that doesn't even quite reach 50% overall that both have one. Even if there is an 80% chance for each of them that is less than 2/3 for both of them.

 

- I probably have no entry for drawing trumps.

That's probably true, although I'm not sure I want to. He may end up having to lead them from his hand into me in the end game.

 

- Whatever high cards they have outside hearts will mostly be on the right, providing convenient entries for a trump coup.

The auction isn't over and we are already worried about a trump coup? What suit will they be running from dummy through us?

 

- It's not impossible that they'll take two ruffs in dummy, four ruffs in hand, two side winners, and ♥K in the ending.  How many tricks is that?

I do agree if we pass there is a chance of more than 0% that they will make.

 

- It is quite hard to imagine a layout where they go for more than 500.

I don't think it's that hard to imagine, but in any case I don't feel the need to reply since that is a conclusion not an argument.

 

- 3NT by our side is probably cold.  My secondary honours will both protect us against RHO's high cards and make it easy to set up partner's long cards.

That I agree with, 3NT will usually make. But there are plenty of times it won't and I have higher hopes for at least 500 anyway.

 

This was the actual hand:

*hand*

As you see, both opponents were barking mad, so my first premise was incorrect.

Totally disagree. Opener was aggressive but far from mad. And responder was not insane at all (although he was if this was their opening style, but not every partnership is experienced together).

 

Partner had an unbelievably good heart holding given the bidding.  The rest of my analysis was, however, reasonably accurate: we can't get more than 500 from 3♥ (eg heart to the king, spade, spade ruff, club, spade ruff, club ruff, spade), and 3NT is unbeatable, even the way that I played it.

Partner's heart holding was great, but his hand was relatively minimum for the second double, and the opponents had the aces of both their singletons. I would say the luck is about even, so win 3 for passing.

 

Now let's move a couple of cards around to make the bidding more believable:

*hand*

Now everybody has their bid, more or less.  I haven't asked Deep Finesse's opinion, but it seems quite hard to beat 3♥.  3NT is, of course, still cold.

Um, east has a clear 4♥ bid IMO. Way too good of a shot at game opposite a vul preempt.

[jonottawa]

Bah. Should have known better than to second guess gnasher on double dummy. (Worked it out myself in the meantime.)

[mikeh]

Seeing the hand doesn't persuade me.

 

1stly, I think we'd all expect partner to be the player most likely to hold 2 (if not 3) Aces on the auction...to find that east has both black Aces and a stiff club is more than mildly surprising. It makes no difference to argue that RHO wouldn't have bid without them... surely he'd have bid without them if he held 10xx or Jxx in trump....if only because it is so unlikely that we could or would catch them speeding. Why? Because who in their right mind opens a red v white weak two on K10xxxx.....I bet RHO wasn't expecting it! Given that just about everybody plays that an immediate double of 3♥ is takeout, and that RHO has enough values that he can expect it to often go all float....and when it doesn't, S will almost never have the trumps needed to pass.... RHO could easily hold a far less useful hand than he did...and he still went 500 with that hand!

 

And I am absolutely with Josh on the substitute possibility.....any RHO who knows how to play would surely bid game with the postulated hand.

[Jlall]

Gnasher,

 

As a general rule I only assume sanity if I know who the opps are. If they are unknown I always play them to make default bad mistakes, like not understanding vulnerability/position/spot cards/whatever when opening a preempt. Also blindly raising ANY time they have 3 trumps because of LOTT etc.

 

If you didn't know your opps I'd say it's a big mistake.

[wank]

Totally disagree. Opener was aggressive but far from mad. And responder was not insane at all (although he was if this was their opening style, but not every partnership is experienced together).

Lol. Thanks. The 3H bidder was me. I'm used to playing with people for whom a second in hand red [unfavourable in american, i believe] weak 2 is tantamount to an acol 2. this partner and i had only played about twice before.