3NT with marginal stopper

[suokko]

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=sa87hxxdkqjxxcq6x&s=skqxhakqtxd8xc8xx]133|200|Scoring: BAM

1♥-2♦;

2NT-3NT[/hv]

 

♣J x x x

♣T x K x

♠J K x 7

♦x x K x

 

Take it from here. How do you play the rest of hand?

 

When you play 2nd round of ♦:

 

 

RHO wins A and shifts to small spade and LHO plays 9 to push dummys ace out.

 

 

 

and later on diamond holdings are revealed:

 

 

RHO discards a spade to 3rd diamond round.

 

 

 

Are you lucky or not? :)

[655321]

I know that I am not lucky enough to duck the second diamond, so I don't know if I am making.

 

Clubs are surely 5-2, so when the ♦K holds I will play another top diamond from dummy. On your layout, East wins and returns a spade. The contract is cold double dummy, but I can't see a way of guaranteeing it.

 

I can't see anything better than cashing one top heart, then crossing to dummy with the spade to try the diamonds, finally taking the heart finesse (and going down when West has Jx).

Edited December 9, 2009 by 655321

[Fluffy]

I would take the same line as above, but obviously if LHO has 2425 we strip squeeze him.

[kenrexford]

I think I follow what happens.

 

I get a club Jack lead, ducked all around. A second club (10) is ducked as well, won by RHO with the King, who clearly has Kx, giving LHO AJ10xx.

 

I then get a spade back (the Jack) and win the King, all following.

 

I then play a diamond toward the King and all duck. So, RHO clearly has the Ace and is ducking.

 

So, I just play another top diamond, which RHO wins, and apparently LHO follows.

 

I now get a spade back.

 

I think I win this in hand, play a top heart, and then cross to dummy with the last spade, before trying diamonds. I apparently find out that these split poorly, RHO having four diamonds.

 

So, LHO has five clubs and two diamonds. I presumably know his spade length to be specifically 2, specifically 5, or some 3-4, based on everyone following or not following.

 

So, at this point, it seems to be a question of whether to hook hearts or not.

 

At this point, though, I have missing info. How did spades split? What pitch did LHO make on the third diamond? If anyone could not follow in spades, what did they pitch?

[Phil]

Ken you misread who has the diamond length.

[suokko]

LHO has diamond length and discards a club on 3rd spade.

[pooltuna]

LHO has diamond length and discards a club on 3rd spade.

I presume the ♦ spots were such that you could not confidently duck the first round into RHO's hand? Clearly he has to hold the ♦A or you would already be down.

[gnasher]

I win the second spade in dummy. When RHO shows out on the third diamond, I cash two top hearts.

 

If LHO shows out on that, I know that RHO was 4522, and is down to a spade and ♥Jxx, so I cash my spade and exit with a heart to endplay him.

 

If LHO follows to two hearts, RHO was 5422 or 6322. I play hearts from the top. If RHO has Jxxx, I lose to his ♥J, but make the last two tricks with ♠A and ♥x.

[gnasher]

LHO has diamond length and discards a club on 3rd spade.

I presume the ♦ spots were such that you could not confidently duck the first round into RHO's hand? Clearly he has to hold the ♦A or you would already be down.

That would be a good idea at IMPs, but it does say that this was board-a-match. They're likely to be in 3NT at the other table, on the same auction, and there's a good chance of 10 tricks by getting one of the red-suits going.

 

Also, it might be rather embarrassing if RHO has done something clever with J10xx xxx A10x AKx

[suokko]

I presume the ♦ spots were such that you could not confidently duck the first round into RHO's hand? Clearly he has to hold the ♦A or you would already be down.

BAM: over tricks are counted too!

[pooltuna]

LHO has diamond length and discards a club on 3rd spade.

I presume the ♦ spots were such that you could not confidently duck the first round into RHO's hand? Clearly he has to hold the ♦A or you would already be down.

That would be a good idea at IMPs, but it does say that this was board-a-match. They're likely to be in 3NT at the other table, on the same auction, and there's a good chance of 10 tricks by getting one of the red-suits going.

 

Also, it might be rather embarrassing if RHO has done something clever with J10xx xxx A10x AKx

yep forgot conditions of contest and when I do that I drop into IMP mentality :)

[kenrexford]

Wow, confusing.

 

OK, so I have played a diamond to the King, winning, and then another diamond, RHO winning. A spade came back, won in hand, and I cashed a heart before crossing to dummy to try diamonds, finding out that LHO has the four diamonds?

 

So, LHO presumably started with ♦109xx ♣AJ10xx in the minors. He had to follow to my heart Ace or this would be easy. He also could not have followed to the third spade, or this would again be easy.

 

So, LHO presumably started with ♠xx ♥?x ♦109xx ♣AJ10xx for this to be an issue.

 

He has reduced down, however, to ♠-- ♥(?) ♦10 ♣Ax as his last four cards, for there to be an issue, having pitched a club to create a losing option for us.

 

This also means that RHO started with ♠J10xxx ♥?xxx ♦Ax ♣Kx. His remaining four cards will have to be ♠10 ♥(?)xx ♦-- ♣-- for there to be a problem, meaning that he pitches a spade on the third diamond.

 

So, I know that there is no problem unless the exact layout is as shown, and only if everyone saves properly. When that happens (damn opponents), I have but math and psychology upon which to rely.

 

The psychology seems very weak. Anyone with a brain should know to not touch a heart on this hand. So, if I have a problem, cards will have been played in this exact order every time. What else, then, other than percentages and a hook of hearts?

 

Or, am I missing something again? LOL

[suokko]

Or, am I missing something again?  LOL

 

You could play for ending like this if you play earlier heart. Of course now defense could make your day hard by leading heart after diamond ace but I didn't do it B) yes. I was RHO here if it gives you any psychological advantage.

 

[hv=n=s?h?dtca9x&w=sqhkqtxdc&e=s8hxdxxcq&s=s?xh?xxxdc]399|300|Scoring: BAM[/hv]

[gnasher]

Or, am I missing something again? LOL

Yes, you're missing that you should have won the second spade in dummy.

 

I don't understand the point of your line (win second spade in hand, cash heart, cross to dummy, cash diamond). If RHO has the short diamonds, my line is obviously better. If LHO has the short diamonds, are you ever going to do anything but play hearts from the top?

[kenrexford]

Or, am I missing something again?  LOL

Yes, you're missing that you should have won the second spade in dummy.

 

I don't understand the point of your line (win second spade in hand, cash heart, cross to dummy, cash diamond). If RHO has the short diamonds, my line is obviously better. If LHO has the short diamonds, are you ever going to do anything but play hearts from the top?

The reason why you cash one top heart before playing spades?

 

Look what actually happens.

 

1. If anyone shows out on the heart Ace, the situation is known.

 

2. If LHO follows to the hearts but also follows to all three spades, the situation is known -- he has precisely 3-1-4-5 pattern, making the heart finesse 100%.

 

3. If anyone makes a pitching error, the situation is known, possibly making a drop 100%.

 

If LHO has short diamonds, I may also end up knowing the layout in the end, such as when and if RHO cannot follow to spades. If LHO has 2-4-2-5 shape, this works equally well. By clearing spades, I get a direct count on LHO's spades. The diamond plays give me complete count all around, and I can play a club to LHO in the end.

[gnasher]

Sorry, I hadn't noticed that when LHO is 2425 you can endplay him.

 

There's a line that's 100% for the contract (assuming clubs are 5=2):

 

Win the second spade in dummy. Cash a diamond, and:

- If RHO shows out, throw a club and play two top hearts. If hearts were 2=4, set the hearts up; if they were 1=5, endplay RHO with a heart.

- If RHO follows to the 3rd diamond, throw a heart. If LHO shows out, play a third spade to hand. If LHO was 2425, endplay him with a club; if he was 3325, play hearts from the top.

 

This might be leaking overtricks too often, however. Given that it's BAM, Ken's approach is probably better, because you can cater for 2425 without risking the overtrick.