unlucky expert or palooka?

[mohitz]

(3♥) - 3♠ - (p) - 4♠

All Pass

 

[hv=d=e&v=b&n=skxxh9xxxdkxckxxx&s=saqjtxxhdqjtxxcax]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

[aguahombre]

(3♥) - 3♠ - (p) - 4♠

All Pass

 

Dealer: East Vul: Both Scoring: MP

♠ Kxx ♥ 9xxx ♦ Kx ♣ Kxxx ♠ AQJTxx ♥ [space] ♦ QJTxx ♣ Ax

Resulting --it is clear to bid six. Reality ---there I sit in four. Resulting --- clearly a 4H call/3H. Reality --- I think it is a tad too weak.

 

Oops, didn't answer your question. I am Palooka.

[helene_t]

Probably S should bid 4♠. Not sure if North would move over that.

 

Maybe diamonds are 5-1.

[jdonn]

How could south just bid 3♠? Opposite just any 1 of those kings there are only 3 losers (ok you might lose control but you get the idea). So south should definitely overcall 4♠.

 

Then north has a really great hand, but it's too hard for me to answer honestly knowing both hands. I don't know what I would do as him.

[mikeh]

I think S has a 3.83♠ bid....it's a reasonable 4♠ bid, but I'm not as adamant as Josh appears to be. I might bid 3♠ on a particularly timid day, but like to think I'd usually bid 4.

 

As for North.... I don't see moving even over a 4♠ bid. I'd be thinking about it, but can't see what move would convey the right message/get the right info...in other words, I don't see how N could hope to end up in the right place in an intelligent fashion opposite the myriad of hands that S could hold.

 

I was going to say that preempts work (and they do) but this isn't the easiest slam to reach even if the opps remain silent.

 

It's almost always tough to reach the optimum spot when it requires that every card we have be working.

[gnasher]

I'd bid 4♠ as South and pass as North. It's tempting to do more with the North hand, but the five level isn't that safe - partner could have AQJ10xxx x AQx xx - and it's not clear what slam try to make.

[hanp]

Definitely 4S, 3S is palooka.

[ggwhiz]

I agree with an initial (but slightly light) 4s bid.

 

The only way to slam after that is North raising to 5 and South raising to 6. That auction should cause a failed drug test.

[kenrexford]

I think S has a 3.83♠ bid....it's a reasonable 4♠ bid, but I'm not as adamant as Josh appears to be. I might bid 3♠ on a particularly timid day, but like to think I'd usually bid 4.

I was thinking of a solution for this, but I cannot work it out.

 

I mean, you get 10 seconds to pause. So, a 10-second 3♠ call could be a clear 3.0♠. For each second past 10, it drops to 2.9, 2.8, etc. Same for fast, up to a one-second 3.9♠ call.

 

But, telling the difference that finely would be tough.

 

Maybe you'd need another cue. You could count out the rough estimate and then, after grabbing the card, wait another few seconds to confirm the fine decimal.

 

Yeah, that works.

 

Wait two seconds and then grab the card. Hold it for 7 seconds (if using the count backwards approach) and then place the card on the table. 3.83 announced.

 

However, I wildly disagree. According to ZRABUNDI POINTS and K-M-T Analysis, this hand is worth 3.72♠, unless you adopt the Xango point addition for the implied heart.

[ArtK78]

Given that the North hand is unlikely to act over a full immediate 4♠ bid by South, if we use Ken's information passing methods and bid 3.72♠ (or even 3.83♠ as suggested by Mike) North will definitely pass.

 

It would probably take at least a 4.17♠ bid to get North to move. If I understand Ken's bidding methods correctly, that means that South would have to bid 4♠ about 2 seconds BEFORE East's 3♥ call.

[mikeh]

this hand is worth 3.72♠, unless you adopt the Xango point addition for the implied heart.

 

You mean: you don't????????

 

I think that means revocation of your status as a bridge theorist. I mean, c'mon...ignoring Xango??!!???

 

No wonder you get these situations wrong.

[skjaeran]

Agree that south has a 4♠ overcall.

 

After that, it's very close. 5♠ is tempting with the north hand, double dummy. B)

Not at all certain what I'd ATT.

[Jlall]

I'd bid 4♠ as South and pass as North. It's tempting to do more with the North hand, but the five level isn't that safe - partner could have AQJ10xxx x AQx xx - and it's not clear what slam try to make.

Yep except I'm not tempted at all with the north hand really. South is under pressure and has to bid 4S somewhat aggressively.

[olegru]

I would bid 4♥ as a South on the first round. Overbiding a little, but would like to include minor in a picture too.

[EricK]

South underbid on the first round. But North can't really move over an immediate 4♠ by South.

 

But...

 

...can South now move over the 4♠ raise by North?

 

Clearly, even if South didn't like his hand as much as he should on the previous round, now he knows about ♠ support plus a few points from partner, it is absolutely huge.

 

So to me, South has 100% of the blame twice! First when he underbid, and then when his underbid allowed him to re-evaluate his hand even higher.

[mikeh]

South underbid on the first round. But North can't really move over an immediate 4♠ by South.

 

But...

 

...can South now move over the 4♠ raise by North?

 

Clearly, even if South didn't like his hand as much as he should on the previous round, now he knows about ♠ support plus a few points from partner, it is absolutely huge.

 

So to me, South has 100% of the blame twice! First when he underbid, and then when his underbid allowed him to re-evaluate his hand even higher.

No! Once S underbid the first time, and attracted only a 4♠ raise, it is a huge error to try to make up for his underbid. For all he knows, North has stretched to raise. More to the point, there is no meaningful call that S can make that will intelligently involve N. He could bid 5♥, I suppose.... on the actual hand that would probably work...if anything would...or he could try 5minor, but surely North would think he was being asked a different question and, with short trumps and no Aces, couldn't possibly co-operate.

 

Why couldn't North hold Kxxx Qxx xxx KQxx as on example on which there is very often going to be a high diamond lead?

 

Bear in mind that North had a 4♥ call available to him with a strong raise.

 

Underbidding then overbidding the same hand with no information suggesting re-evaluation is a bad mistake, and a partnership killer in the long run. It's worse, imo, than being consistently conservative or consistently aggressive, because the inconsistency deprives partner of any idea of what is likely to be going on.

[mohitz]

How could south just bid 3♠?

I was South. Actually, i didn't sort my hand properly and what i saw was this

AQJTxx xx QJx Ax. :P

 

When the bidding came back to me, i had sorted my hand and it suddenly reevaluated to a very good hand, but it didn't feel right to move now for the reasons mikeh mentioned. Also, was playing a club game where I was sure nobody would bid 6.

 

Even if i had the hand sorted out, I am not sure if i would have bid 4♠. Hence this post. I looks like a stretch to me but what do i know!

 

Thanks for responses. Next time i will bid 4♠

[jdeegan]

:P Good discussion. 4♠ is best. imo. Any raise is problematic. This is why we preempt in the first place.