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3NT


kenrexford

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Win the lead in dummy and DUCK a club?

 

If clubs are 3-0 offside, you're probably not making this, if its 3-0 onside you must duck to retain communication. If you overtake the spade and win in hand, the defence might switch to a diamond and take 1 club, 1 diamond and 3 spades.

 

Cashing the ace first would probably work too, but things can get messy with 3-0.

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Ducking gives up potential tricks for no reason that I can see. If clubs split 3-0 onside you still have an entry in hearts.

Just to clarify, are you just going to give up 2 club tricks? If not, you need to get back into hand somehow. Overtaking the hearts opens the suit up completely, while if LHO has the Axx, he can prevent the diamond entry and attack hearts when he gets in.

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<!-- NORTHSOUTH begin --><table border=1> <tr> <td> <table> <tr> <td>Dealer:</td> <td> ????? </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vul:</td> <td> ???? </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Scoring:</td> <td> Unknown </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td> <table border='1'> <tr> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td> K </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td> K </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> KJx </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td> AQ9xxxxx </td> </tr> </table> </th> </tr> <tr> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td> AJxxx </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td> Axx </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> Qxx </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td> xx </td> </tr> </table> </th> </tr> </table> </td> <td>  </td> </tr> </table><!-- NORTHSOUTH end -->

 

South ends up in 3NT.  Spade lead.

 

This just seemed like a fun technique hand.

looks like more technique is needed at MP. At IMPS I would play

any

but the

A or Q

 

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I think the DUCK first Cl is best... rather than Ace first : 87.5% to 75%.

 

If you play the Ace first, you may go down if 3-0 split ( 25% of the time ) since you will need 2 entries to dummy. You have them, but in the meantime a Ht switch after opps take the 2nd Cl lead removes the Ht K in dummy.

You lead the 3rd Rnd of Cl and another Ht lead sets up opps' Hts.

You lead to your Diam honors, but they grab the Ace and take at least 2 more Hts.

 

K J T     ---

K J       T

K T       J

K         J T

 

Play Ace first

25%    12 tricks    no entries needed to dummy

50%    10-11        1 entry needed

25%    down on switch

 

Duck first Cl

75%     cold 11       1 entry

12.5% cold 10 or 11   no entry needed if West ( LHO ) has K J T ( A Q over the K J )

12.5%   down on switch ( edit )

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If the KJ10 is behind dummy, you

will lose a club, heart switch, lose second club, clear hearts, and then the opponents end up in with diamonds to possibly cash out hearts. In other words, this situation is a disaster and can be ignored as probably hopeless.

 

If you win the spade and duck a club immediately, with LHO having KJ10 in clubs, they table you with a heart. That's bad.

 

So, get rid of the heart.

 

Win spade King. Cash heart King. Duck a club. Now, the cannot hurt you. If clubs split 2-1, win whatever they do and then run clubs. If LHO started with KJ10, you will eventually lead a club toward the AQ and hook.

 

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If you win the spade and duck a club immediately, with LHO having KJ10 in clubs, they table you with a heart.  That's bad.

You might be on table. Personally, I'll be in hand, having overtaken the heart.

Exactly.... winning 10 tricks.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

ps. I did make an error in my previous post... on the duck-a-club.

You lose 12.5% of the time when RHO has the K J T because of the switch.

 

But, that said, it is still better to duck rather than Ace first: 87.5% vs 75%.

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