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Too much of a gamble?


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[hv=d=s&v=n&s=saxxhaxxxdajxc10xx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

Opps silent, you deal:

1-2

2-3

?

 

1 = 2+ suit, limited to 15

2 = forcing 1rd, natural

2 = balanced (but 3D would be bal min w/ 4-5 diamonds)

3 = inv, both minors, typically 54, almost always 1 major suit unstopped[/hv]

 

We play 10-12 NT range in this seat, but most hands with 2 aces and 11 pts get opened 1D (if that info is relevant). Are you bidding on, or no? 3D is a signoff, bidding 3H or 3S would ASK for a stopper.

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Punt 3NT. Hope hold-up works.

 

Did partner's 3C suggest 3NT is still a live possibility? Or 'my turn to bid'?

 

If I trust partner he IS inviting 3NT, so I try it with M-stops. If he is to trust me, this is just the hand he tried 3C to invite 3NT on.

 

I imagine something near S-xx H-Kx D-K10xxx C-AQxx Or D-KQxxx C-AKxx.

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It seems like your balanced range for 1 is usually 13-15. While this hand has aces, it is quite minimum in terms of high cards for that range.

 

It's also almost sure that we will be weak in at least one major given partner's shape and our holdings. We probably have five diamond tricks (perhaps on a finesse), two aces, and some possible tricks in clubs to develop. It seems game is unlikely to be better than 50% (either a finesse in diamonds, or needing the long spades to be in the opposite hand from a club loser), and there are plenty of constructions where game's a lot worse. There are some interesting hands where 5m is quite good (especially if partner is 5-5) but this seems tough to find.

 

I'd correct to 3. Aces are not as undervalued in notrump contracts as they are in suits.

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