gnasher Posted November 19, 2009 Report Share Posted November 19, 2009 Interesting, RHO having ♣JT under Justin's assumptions is 1.8 times as likely as LHO having ♣JT or ♦QJ. I wouldn't have thought it is so dramatic. Suppose that I wanted to confirm Cherdano's calculation, or even to do an estimate at the table. Is this method correct: With spades 5=4, hearts 2=0 and ♣K offside, West has 5 vacant spaces to East's 9. The chance of a given pair of cards appearing in the East hand is 9/14 * 8/13 ~= 40%. The chance of a given pair of cards appearing in the West hand is 5/14 * 4/13 ~= 11%. Hence the chance of West's having ♣J10 or ♦QJ is 11 + 0.89 * 11 ~= 21% That seems to accord with Cherdano's figures, given that I haven't considered the possibility of ♣KJ on the left. Is that just a coincidence, or have I actually done the calculation correctly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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