vuroth Posted November 10, 2009 Report Share Posted November 10, 2009 Do you want to be in 6♣ here or not? (Opponents silent.) [hv=d=s&v=e&n=s97hat2dj76ckt943&s=sak4h3dak432ca652]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv] In the hidden part, I try to figure the odds: Slam makes if:Clubs are 2-2Clubs are 3-1, AND I can hold the minors to 1 loser. My foresight isn't all that good, but I might need hearts to be 6-3 or better as well, right? Ok clubs 2-2 is 41%3-1 clubs, losing a diamond only. I need LHO to hold Hxx in clubs. A singleton honour happens in half of all 3-1s, and half the time south has the singleton. So 25% of 50%, or 12.5%3-1 clubs, loing only a club. Now south has Hxx (12.5%), and the queen of diamonds is single or doubleQ single is 1/5th of all 4-1 splits (.2x.28 = 5.6%)Q double is 2/5s of all 3-2 splits (.4x.68 = 27.2%)So 3-1 clubs for 1 club loser is 12.5% x (5.6% + 27.2%) = 4.1% So my chances of making are: 41% + 12.5% + 4.1% = 57.6% more or less I want to be in this slam, don't I? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pooltuna Posted November 10, 2009 Report Share Posted November 10, 2009 Do you want to be in 6♣ here or not? (Opponents silent.) [hv=d=s&v=e&n=s97hat2dj76ckt943&s=sak4h3dak432ca652]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv] In the hidden part, I try to figure the odds: Slam makes if:Clubs are 2-2Clubs are 3-1, AND I can hold the minors to 1 loser. My foresight isn't all that good, but I might need hearts to be 6-3 or better as well, right? Ok clubs 2-2 is 41%3-1 clubs, losing a diamond only. I need LHO to hold Hxx in clubs. A singleton honour happens in half of all 3-1s, and half the time south has the singleton. So 25% of 50%, or 12.5%3-1 clubs, loing only a club. Now south has Hxx (12.5%), and the queen of diamonds is single or doubleQ single is 1/5th of all 4-1 splits (.2x.28 = 5.6%)Q double is 2/5s of all 3-2 splits (.4x.68 = 27.2%)So 3-1 clubs for 1 club loser is 12.5% x (5.6% + 27.2%) = 4.1% So my chances of making are: 41% + 12.5% + 4.1% = 57.6% more or less I want to be in this slam, don't I? Well not sure of the odds but the chance for a 2-2♣, restricted choice possibilities in ♣, and Q or Qx of ♦ should be enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted November 10, 2009 Report Share Posted November 10, 2009 All those calculations are mildly interesting, but how about the other reason for being in 6C? On a heart lead, you need the same either/or in the minors to make 3NT --and 6c scores better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted November 10, 2009 Report Share Posted November 10, 2009 I definitely want to be in slam. Picking up clubs is almost 50%, and not losing a diamond is something like 15%, and I only need either one if the other suit isn't awful. I wouldn't feel the need to get much more accurate to know I want to be in slam. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2009 Report Share Posted November 10, 2009 Picking up diamonds is a lot better than 15% Josh. Hx with 5 out is 27-28% plus you get 3% or so for the singleton Q's. I make this ~: ((47%) for clubs for no losers) + ((53% x (33% x 95%)) for clubs with one loser (you can't pick up QJxx in left) = 16%) = 63%. This assumes you attempt ♣A checking for an honor, and hooking (RC). You could endplay an opponent out of the ♦Q by eliminating the major suit cards and throwing him in. That would require an opponent to hold exactly 3=3=4=3 or ♦5/♣3 - which is not at all likely since it means an opponent stayed silent with 11 or 12 major suit cards. Adding more pedantry - you could also play for a remote squeeze in ♠+♦ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdanno Posted November 10, 2009 Report Share Posted November 10, 2009 I definitely want to be in slam. Picking up clubs is almost 50%, and not losing a diamond is something like 15%, and I only need either one if the other suit isn't awful. I wouldn't feel the need to get much more accurate to know I want to be in slam. I would, however, like to know about restricted choice when playing this slam! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted November 10, 2009 Report Share Posted November 10, 2009 Yes Phil my bad, I for some reason estimated Qx or Q with lho not with either player. But you should know I'm stupid and careless lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vuroth Posted November 10, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2009 ((47%) for clubs for no losers) +((53% x (33% x 95%)) for clubs with one loser (you can't pick up QJxx in left) = 16%) Shouldn't is be 90%, not 95%? Both 4-0s do you in. Also, 47% is 41% for 2-2, plus 6% for singleton queen? Doesn't singleton jack work out the same? So 41% + 12 = 53% for clubs with no losers? (That said, my original math didn't take into account that all 3-1s can be played for 1 loser.) So 53% + (47% x 33% * 90%) = 67%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2009 Report Share Posted November 10, 2009 ((47%) for clubs for no losers) +((53% x (33% x 95%)) for clubs with one loser (you can't pick up QJxx in left) = 16%) Shouldn't is be 90%, not 95%? Both 4-0s do you in. Also, 47% is 41% for 2-2, plus 6% for singleton queen? Doesn't singleton jack work out the same? So 41% + 12 = 53% for clubs with no losers? (That said, my original math didn't take into account that all 3-1s can be played for 1 loser.) So 53% + (47% x 33% * 90%) = 67%? No you can pick up QJxx on left. Remember you aren't trying to endplay him, only pick up the diamonds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2009 Report Share Posted November 10, 2009 Also, 47% is 41% for 2-2, plus 6% for singleton queen? Doesn't singleton jack work out the same? So 41% + 12 = 53% for clubs with no losers? No :) You lose to the QJ dub offside, so one of the 2-2's gets tossed out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vuroth Posted November 10, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2009 Also, 47% is 41% for 2-2, plus 6% for singleton queen? Doesn't singleton jack work out the same? So 41% + 12 = 53% for clubs with no losers? No :) You lose to the QJ dub offside, so one of the 2-2's gets tossed out. Right. /facepalm. I figured it would be something like that. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlall Posted November 10, 2009 Report Share Posted November 10, 2009 Looks like a great slam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vuroth Posted November 10, 2009 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2009 Part 2 I guess. How would you bid it, south dealer, opps silent? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlall Posted November 10, 2009 Report Share Posted November 10, 2009 Part 2 I guess. How would you bid it, south dealer, opps silent? 1D-1N3C-3H3N-4C4D-4H6C or something similar seems like a good auction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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