Another simple hand?

[Old York]

[hv=d=n&v=e&n=sk932hk96dj32c976&w=st764hqt8dqt8ca84&e=s5hj754d974ckjt32&s=saqj8ha32dak65cq5]399|300|Scoring: MP

would you expect to reach 3N or 4S?[/hv]

 

Played at 242 tables, so comparisons are abundant

 

I played this hand in 3NT as South with an unknown partner but was disturbed to get only 54% after a spade lead. Are Matchpoints too random?

 

The hand is an interesting defensive problem for West. Both 3NT and 4♠ should fail

 

Tony

[pooltuna]

[hv=d=n&v=e&n=sk932hk96dj32c976&w=st764hqt8dqt8ca84&e=s5hj754d974ckjt32&s=saqj8ha32dak65cq5]399|300|Scoring: MP

would you expect to reach 3N or 4S?[/hv]

 

Played at 242 tables, so comparisons are abundant

 

I played this hand in 3NT as South with an unknown partner but was disturbed to get only 54% after a spade lead. Are Matchpoints too random?

 

The hand is an interesting defensive problem for West. Both 3NT and 4♠ should fail

 

Tony

assuming mostly 2/1 or sayc partnerships I would expect an auction that looks like

 

p (p) 2NT (p)

3NT all pass

[Phil]

You had the normal auction to the normal contract. With 4-1 spades, 4♠ is a problem.

 

Was the spade lead the 7 or the 4? If its the 4, I think there's an excellent chance LHO is 4=3=3=3 since there are better suits to lead from. This isn't a lock, because a major lead is attractive on this auction. But 3-3 diamonds are more likely than Qx somewhere.

 

I'll win the spade trick with the 9 at T1 and play a diamond up. If RHO plays either of the two smaller spots, I'll duck expecting LHO to win. I think its very unlikely LHO will find a club shift.

 

Its matchpoints, and I assume that this is a short BBO tourney, so I don't mind taking a chance to get a good score.

 

The other choice is a ♣ at T2. :) Seriously.

[Old York]

I'll win the spade trick with the 9 at T1 and play a diamond up

I won Spade lead with Ace (slightly deceptive)... maybe Queen better?

 

West continued Spades after he won ♦Queen at trick 2. It is dangerous for West to cash ♣Ace at trick 3 at matchpoint scoring, at Imps it would be much easier to defend correctly. Should West be rewarded with such a good score, after failing to defeat an unmakable contract?

 

I hate matchpoints :)

 

Tony

 

Edit: The bidding with a regular partnership might be...

2NT - 3♣ (asking for 5cM)

3♦ - 3♥ (shows 4 Spades)

3♠ - 3NT (Shows 4333)

4♠ - p (showing no slam ambitions)

 

4♠= scores 77%

[Jlall]

I like 2N-3N

[dellache]

I like a 2NT 3NT sequence, but seeing all 4 hands maybe I ask an undo and bid Stayman :rolleyes:

 

Why ?

 

A funny likely scenario leads to a making 4♠ : 2NT 3♣, then of course East doubles and you play 4♠ by South. West duly leads his Ace, plays another ♣ and East happily plays a 3rd one. Bravo. Now South can draw trumps and play Diamonds however he likes : the defense just managed to commit suicide at trick 3, by destroying the ♣ communication.

 

Just kidding...

[nigel_k]

I could be wrong but with that North hand I would expect spades to make an extra trick a bit more than half the time when partner has four of them. The holdings in the other suits suggest that a ruff will very often gain when there is a doubleton opposite. And I think 4♠ should make on those cards if played correctly. So 40-45% of the field bidding and making 4♠ and a few also making 3NT would not surprise me.

[Old York]

I like a 2NT 3NT sequence, but seeing all 4 hands maybe I ask an undo and bid Stayman  :rolleyes:

 

Why ?

 

A funny likely scenario leads to a making 4♠ : 2NT 3♣, then of course East doubles and you play 4♠ by South. West duly leads his Ace, plays another ♣....

A second Club should be fatal for the defense, West must switch to a high Heart to defeat 4♠

 

In the event, it was declarer who commited suicide at many tables

 

Tony

 

perfect bidding, normal defence, but still 1 down

http://online.bridgebase.com/myhands/fetch...ayed=1257023965

http://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer...7864-1257023965

[kenrexford]

I don't get it. 4♠ seems normal, and making 4♠ seems normal. So, 4♠ scores well because some abnormal/good defense leads to a set.

[Old York]

4♠ seems normal,.....

I agree totally, but should North use normal Stayman with 4333 shape?

 

My main point is that 3NT is the "practical" contract and I expected it to score more than 54%

 

4♠ scored exceptionally well simply because many declarers failed to handle the 4-1 split, so why did 3NT score so badly? Matchpoint scoring just seems so unpredictable, to me

 

Tony

83 players scored slightly more than me, 109 players scored considerably less

 

Traveller at http://online.bridgebase.com/myhands/hands...16&username=old york

[kenrexford]

4♠ seems normal,.....

I agree totally, but should North use normal Stayman with 4333 shape?

 

My main point is that 3NT is the "practical" contract and I expected it to score more than 54%

 

4♠ scored exceptionally well simply because many declarers failed to handle the 4-1 split, so why did 3NT score so badly? Matchpoint scoring just seems so unpredictable, to me

 

Tony

83 players scored slightly more than me, 109 players scored considerably less

 

Traveller at http://online.bridgebase.com/myhands/hands...16&username=old york

Matchpoints are not awarded by a committee that decides how great your call was in theory. Whether 4♠ is right or wrong, it handles better on this hand. hence, the higher score for bidding 4♠.

[jdonn]

Matchpoints are not awarded by a committee that decides how great your call was in theory.

How fortunate for all your opponents!

[Old York]

Eloquent and concise as usual, Ken

 

Well said :rolleyes:

[Fluffy]

Matchpoints are not awarded by a committee that decides how great your call was in theory.

laughing out loud literarilly :rolleyes:

[P_Marlowe]

We would reach 4S.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[Old York]

Many have still failed to give their reasons for prefering 4♠ or 3NT, North's 4333 shape should deter most from using any form of 3♣ bid, but congratulations to all who found the Spade game. The spotlight now switches to the defenders

 

How can West find a lead from his hand, either red suit could be fatal, and cashing an ace could present declarer with a trick, so lead a trump?

 

Declarer now has many problems, needing 3 diamond tricks and a club ruff, while keeping control of trumps and leaving communication in hearts. many failed to handle the hand, unless presented with easy tricks by defenders

 

The "correct" defence would be to find the safest opening lead, and attack Hearts at the first opportunity, this give no chance to Declarer, even if he is world class

 

http://cid-a2215bf240b1bba1.skydrive.live..../Old%20York.lin

 

Tony

 

My only regret is that I was not allowed to play this hand at Imp scoring, where I would not need the committee's approval to get a decent score

[pooltuna]

Many have still failed to give their reasons for prefering 4♠ or 3NT, North's 4333 shape should deter most from using any form of 3♣ bid, but congratulations to all who found the Spade game. The spotlight now switches to the defenders

 

How can West find a lead from his hand, either red suit could be fatal, and cashing an ace could present declarer with a trick, so lead a trump?

 

Declarer now has many problems, needing 3 diamond tricks and a club ruff, while keeping control of trumps and leaving communication in hearts. many failed to handle the hand, unless presented with easy tricks by defenders

 

The "correct" defence would be to find the safest opening lead, and attack Hearts at the first opportunity, this give no chance to Declarer, even if he is world class

 

http://cid-a2215bf240b1bba1.skydrive.live..../Old%20York.lin

 

Tony

 

My only regret is that I was not allowed to play this hand at Imp scoring, where I would not need the committee's approval to get a decent score

If you want to find out why 3NT is right or at least I think will show up as right run a simulation with the 2NT bidder holding 4♠ and for the other hand use the responder's hand. I think the number of tricks in NT and making contracts will exceed similar numbers for 4♠.

[cherdanno]

Matchpoints are not awarded by a committee that decides how great your call was in theory.

How fortunate for all your opponents!

He said "how great your call was in theory", not "how great your theory about this call was".

[nigel_k]

I ran a simulation on this assuming the 2NT bidder has four spades, but not five - so you use Puppet Stayman and bid 3NT over 3♦ thus missing a 4-4 spade fit but not a 5-4. Out of 10,000 hands:

 

5188 times 4♠ was a better matchpoint score than 3NT

4244 times 3NT was a better matchpoint score than 4♠

1611 times 3NT made and 4♠ failed

894 times 4♠ made and 3NT failed

 

So the 4-4 spade fit has the edge over 3NT double dummy at matchpoints. The defenders are more likely to err against 3NT, especially on the opening lead, plus looking for a 4-4 spade fit will reveal extra information about the declaring hand when it doesn't have spades. I don't know if these factors are enough to make 3NT better but I doubt it.

 

3NT fails less often so is better at IMPS.

[pooltuna]

I ran a simulation on this assuming the 2NT bidder has four spades, but not five - so you use Puppet Stayman and bid 3NT over 3♦ thus missing a 4-4 spade fit but not a 5-4. Out of 10,000 hands:

 

5188 times 4♠ was a better matchpoint score than 3NT

4244 times 3NT was a better matchpoint score than 4♠

1611 times 3NT made and 4♠ failed

894 times 4♠ made and 3NT failed

 

So the 4-4 spade fit has the edge over 3NT double dummy at matchpoints. The defenders are more likely to err against 3NT, especially on the opening lead, plus looking for a 4-4 spade fit will reveal extra information about the declaring hand when it doesn't have spades. I don't know if these factors are enough to make 3NT better but I doubt it.

 

3NT fails less often so is better at IMPS.

thank you for the sim run. Guess at MP I will have to search for the 44 fit

[Old York]

I ran a simulation on this assuming the 2NT bidder has four spades, but not five - so you use Puppet Stayman and bid 3NT over 3♦ thus missing a 4-4 spade fit but not a 5-4. Out of 10,000 hands:

 

5188 times 4♠ was a better matchpoint score than 3NT

4244 times 3NT was a better matchpoint score than 4♠

1611 times 3NT made and 4♠ failed

894  times 4♠ made and 3NT failed

 

So the 4-4 spade fit has the edge over 3NT double dummy at matchpoints. The defenders are more likely to err against 3NT, especially on the opening lead, plus looking for a 4-4 spade fit will reveal extra information about the declaring hand when it doesn't have spades. I don't know if these factors are enough to make 3NT better but I doubt it.

 

3NT fails less often so is better at IMPS.

Many, many thanks for taking the trouble to do this research, it is certainly thought provoking and I will look into this much deeper.

Again, this highlights a big difference between Imps and Matchpoints

 

Cheers, I owe you a drink

Tony

afterthought: If the make/fail is double dummy, maybe the 1611 is actually higher in reality :P

[gnasher]

The number of tricks available double-dummy isn't the only factor. It's harder to defend correctly after

  2NT-3NT

than after

  2NT-3♣

  3♦-3NT

or

  2NT-3♣

  3♥-3NT

or

  2NT-3♣

  3♥-3NT

  4♠

or

  2NT-3♣

  3♠-4♠

 

It's different if you can investigate the spade fit without having to reveal anything else about opener's hand.

 

Edit: Having reread nigel_k's post, I see that he'd already mentioned this factor. As you've probably gathered, I disagree with him about its significance.

Edited November 3, 2009 by gnasher