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Last guess?


Phil

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Agree with 4S, and think it is infinitely better than 4C. We are super unlikely to need to bid 5S w/w, I will consider it a victory just to get them to the 5 level. With a pretty low ODR opposite a mixed raise I am not looking to get partner to judge to bid 5 over 5.

 

Additionally the whole point of bidding is sticking it to LHO. If we bid 4C he can double to show some values so they will have an easier time Xing 4S, and he can also bid 4H to show his heart fit and suggest to his partner that they compete to the 5 level, or he can bid 4H then X 4S to show a good hand with a heart fit so his partner can judge what to do etc.

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Tough one.

Pard has 32+ if I understand 3 properly.

This looks like 17 total trumps, but as my spade holding is perfect for offense (and I have no Heart quacks), I think 17 trumps will often lead to 18 tricks. This suggests a 4 bid.

 

OTOH if east's minor is Clubs, or if pard has 3+, 4 will often be a phantom against their 4 because 17 T-tricks only are available. But in that case I expect the scoresheet might be half full with 140 in my column, and I need to whack 4 to save some MP. It looks as if I cannot let them play 4 undoubled.

 

At the table, I admit I would probably pass first. If it goes 3NT by west (4252), 4 by East, I hit the jackpot. Unlikely but possible. Otherwise, I guess I'll bid 4 very confidently at my next turn, unless pard whacks 4 himself. I don't really see why a very confident delayed 4 will see our line less favourably placed than a direct 4. But maybe I'm wrong, because many other posters bid a wtp 4.

 

The bid I don't consider is 4. I would need 5-5 to bid that.

 

EDIT: if mixed raise means limit 4+ (is that so ?) I bid a wtp 4 at light speed.

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Tough one.

Pard has 32+ if I understand 3 properly.

"Mixed" normally means four-card support and constructive (but not invitational) values.

 

At the table, I admit I would probably pass first. If it goes 3NT by west (4252), 4 by East, I hit the jackpot. Unlikely but possible. Otherwise, I guess I'll bid 4 very confidently at my next turn, unless pard whacks 4 himself. I don't really see why a very confident delayed 4 will see our line less favourably placed than a direct 4.

By passing, you allow LHO to find out what his partner's suit is, and/or RHO to find out whether he's facing heart support.

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Tough one.

Pard has 32+ if I understand 3 properly.

"Mixed" normally means four-card support and constructive (but not invitational) values.

Then I would not consider any other bid than 4 !

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It wouldn't occur to me to bid anything. Can my hand be worse than this? It's not like it improves on the auction.

Yes, you could have QJ10xx Qx Kxx Kxx.

 

If p can double 4 or 4 it's cool.

 

Is that even conceivable? It's possible that 4 is going down eg - opposite Axxx QJ10 xxx xxx with RHO having x AKxxx AQJ10x xx, but I can't see partner doubling.

 

The main worry is that 4 goes for 500. The main hope is that if that's the case they won't double. RHO has quite a wide range here, so LHO may not be sure whose hand it is.

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The main worry is that 4 goes for 500.

Well I was worried about going for 50 against nothing.

Why? You have nothing in spades, nothing in hearts, and slow tricks in clubs (very likely not RHO's second suit). You have something like 1.5 defensive tricks as an opening bidder opposite someone who just said he had a good preempt with 4 card support for your defensively useless major. I really doubt they aren't making something.

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I bid 4 too. I really liked the bid at the time. No way did I want to defend 4 or 4.

 

The entire hand was:

 

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=sa9xxhktxdtxxxcxx&w=skxxh5xxdxxcjtxxx&e=sxhaqjxxdaqjxxcax&s=sqjt8xh6xdkxckq9x]399|300|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

On some other days they can wrap 4. Not today. Damn red 10's!

 

Plus we got very little field protection on BBO (17%). I would expect IRL we'd be 30-40% even on this layout.

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It is obvious to defend on this auction.

 

LOL.

 

In real life, I would have bid 4 over 3. The actual layout is quite unlucky.

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Did RHO not double you?

 

BTW in general a great thing about auctions like this is nobody knows who has what, the ranges are extremely wide. The 3S bidder could have almost any 6-5, or some medium 5-5's, and the 4S bidder could have anything from this to a real hand.

 

Therefore, it is hard to guage when to double or not. People who are not experienced with this kind of highly competitive bridge do not double nearly enough on this auction. If RHO did not double with THAT hand that is very good evidence of this. Sure they might make, but you have such a great hand that you have to assume you were making and thus they were saving and protect yourself by doubling.

 

Likewise it will be very hard for LHO to know when to double. Make sure you bid 4S in tempo and don't look like it's painful!

 

When this is not a phantom save which I don't expect it to be that often then it's probably a really good bid.

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