Do you open?

[sathyab]

Now your argument goes 

 

"When it comes down to it, you aren't going to win by downgrading often"

 

Why?

 

 

I know there are many smart people like you who do not understand why one would upgrade more than they downgrade, but there is a reason why this is universal among good players.

IMO, it depends to a very large extent on when you learnt this game. Anyone who learnt this game twenty or thirty years ago is not easily persuaded by arguments in favor of frequent upgrading, undisciplined preempts etc, even though they would have realized that those methods are harder to deal with. Learning is hard, unlearning is harder.

[eyhung]

The right reason to open (ignoring considerations like "state of the match") is that, by doing so, you guesstimate you IMP expectation to be positive.

I just ran a 1000-hand sim on this hand, computing the par score for the deal on each deal that fit the criteria (none of the other players has an opening bid or preempt, East does not have an aggressive preempt) :

 

Average North HCP = 9.349 (theoretical average = 9.33)

Average NS par score = 4.2

 

I imagine a great player would find opening this to be positive IMP-expectation.

[cherdanno]

Despite the problem of possibly being in the wrong spot or letting in opponents when we pass 1♥, I think we are still ahead of the double dummy contract. If opponents compete, partner will have a fairly good guess about what my hand looks like. Opponents guesses about each other's hand will be worse.

 

With regards to the simulation, most East's also won't have a subminimum opening with a 5-card major, or a subminimum opening with a good 4-card major. That really increases our IMPs expectation I think. (West is also more likely to open light or an aggressive preempt in 1st seat than partner in 2nd seat.)

[jdonn]

The right reason to open (ignoring considerations like "state of the match") is that, by doing so, you guesstimate you IMP expectation to be positive.

I just ran a 1000-hand sim on this hand, computing the par score for the deal on each deal that fit the criteria (none of the other players has an opening bid or preempt, East does not have an aggressive preempt) :

 

Average North HCP = 9.349 (theoretical average = 9.33)

Average NS par score = 4.2

 

I imagine a great player would find opening this to be positive IMP-expectation.

Two factors:

 

You don't seem to have adjusted for east opening light in 3rd seat at the 1 level. Although that would be quite hard to do. That not only reduces his expected strength, but to a slight extent also reduces his expected major suit length.

 

We are opening a good suit, which should give us an advantage over double dummy simply in case partner is on lead.

[eyhung]

Two factors:

 

You don't seem to have adjusted for east opening light in 3rd seat at the 1 level. Although that would be quite hard to do. That not only reduces his expected strength, but to a slight extent also reduces his expected major suit length.

 

We are opening a good suit, which should give us an advantage over double dummy simply in case partner is on lead.

You are right that my sim ignores light 3rd openings, so the true expectation is higher than +4.2. But how does opening a good suit give us an advantage over double-dummy par? It would give us an advantage over real-life outcomes, but I'm not modeling a real-life outcome. In fact, if the sim came out slightly negative par for N/S I would still conclude that it's right to open given the factors Justin mentioned, and the 4-5% declarer's advantage that part-score single-dummy contracts have.

[jdonn]

Two factors:

 

You don't seem to have adjusted for east opening light in 3rd seat at the 1 level. Although that would be quite hard to do. That not only reduces his expected strength, but to a slight extent also reduces his expected major suit length.

 

We are opening a good suit, which should give us an advantage over double dummy simply in case partner is on lead.

You are right that my sim ignores light 3rd openings, so the true expectation is higher than +4.2. But how does opening a good suit give us an advantage over double-dummy par? It would give us an advantage over real-life outcomes, but I'm not modeling a real-life outcome. In fact, if the sim came out slightly negative par for N/S I would still conclude that it's right to open given the factors Justin mentioned, and the 4-5% declarer's advantage that part-score single-dummy contracts have.

It means we will do better, relative to the double dummy par, than if we had opened a bad suit since partner would be more likely to make a bad lead in that case.

[kenrexford]

Open 1♣ and then rebid 1NT. That's one reason why I now play 14-16 1NT openings in 3rd/4th seat. Partner doesn't get excited when I rebid 1NT.

[fred]

Average NS par score = 4.2

Sorry if I am being dumb, but what units are you using?

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

[jdonn]

Average NS par score = 4.2

Sorry if I am being dumb, but what units are you using?

I'm fairly sure he is using total bridge-points, as in +50 for setting them one trick, so 4.2 would be extremely tiny and suggest passing was about as good as opening. However I still feel the missing factors suggest opening as well.

[fred]

Average NS par score = 4.2

Sorry if I am being dumb, but what units are you using?

I'm fairly sure he is using total bridge-points, as in +50 for setting them one trick, so 4.2 would be extremely tiny and suggest passing was about as good as opening. However I still feel the missing factors suggest opening as well.

That's what I thought too, but wanted to make sure. If so then the KR hand evaluator is looking better and better B)

 

I assume that +50 and -100 are impossible scores in this analysis because, since we are talking about par, all contracts that are going down will be doubled. That probably skews the results because in real life +50 and -100 will be very common scores on a deal life this one.

 

If not too difficult, Eugene, I would be interested in knowing the frequency of various bridge scores (and also the total number of plus scores and minus scores but I can work that out myself from the frequencies) in your sample.

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

[nige1]

Red vs White, after three passes you're looking at: ♠QJx ♥Jxx ♦Kx ♣KQxxx

What's your call? It's a butler tournament if you need to know...

[hv=d=e&v=n&n=sqj3hj75dk2ckq754&w=sat54hak9dt83c932&e=s976h632da9764cj8&s=sk82hqt84dqj5cat6]399|300|Scoring: IMP

This is the complete hand. My partner didn't want to open his 12-count either so we got 0 instead of the 600 that everyone got in 3NT. How would you divide the fault here?[/hv]

• IMO _P = 10, 1♣ = 9. Although you hold 3♠, your hand is a bit quacky. The answer depends on partner's opening habits. Opposite Roth or Stone, there's a better case for opening.
  
• Since I open partner's hand and pass on Hanoi5's, I blame partner for missing game B)
  
• If I opened 1♣ and partner replied 1♥ or 1♠, then I would pass.
  

[aguahombre]

edit. delete

[eyhung]

I'm fairly sure he is using total bridge-points, as in +50 for setting them one trick, so 4.2 would be extremely tiny and suggest passing was about as good as opening. However I still feel the missing factors suggest opening as well.

Yes, to confirm, I am using total bridge points, so the original sim says passing is about as good as bidding if both sides play par bridge.

 

I have tweaked the simulation to disallow some of East's 10-11 counts so North's Average HCP is going to be somewhat higher than his expected 9.33.

I also used the true spots -- the original post only specified x's, while a followup post mentioned the actual spots (QJ3 J75 K2 KQ754)

 

Hands = 1000

Average North HCP = 9.734

Average NS score = 35.75 points

N/S plus = 606

N/S minus = 394

 

160 [score "NS -110"]

26 [score "NS -120"]

15 [score "NS -130"]

85 [score "NS -140"]

3 [score "NS -200"]

8 [score "NS -400"]

20 [score "NS -420"]

1 [score "NS -450"]

10 [score "NS -80"]

65 [score "NS -90"]

1 [score "NS -920"]

 

154 [score "NS 100"]

99 [score "NS 110"]

91 [score "NS 120"]

11 [score "NS 130"]

98 [score "NS 140"]

11 [score "NS 300"]

16 [score "NS 500"]

17 [score "NS 600"]

9 [score "NS 620"]

1 [score "NS 630"]

3 [score "NS 650"]

12 [score "NS 80"]

84 [score "NS 90"]

 

All the +100s and -200s are from doubled contracts, so it's easy to adjust. The total score on the 1000 hands was 35750. Double gains 50 points 154 times, or 7700 points, and loses 100 points 3 times for 300 points. So assuming no matchpoint-style doubles, the adjusted total score would be 35750 - 7400 = 28350, giving N/S a more realistic par average of 28.35 points from opening. So with the East adjustment, it's clear to open in 4th chair.

 

Also, the -920 involved A7 T6 AT87654 J6 opposite KT842 A984 Q93 8, but it only influences the par average by 1 point. I admit my preempt / weak two function is not robust -- I'd be happy to solicit suggestions to make my future sims better.

[gnasher]

Also, the -920 involved A7 T6 AT87654 J6 opposite KT842 A984 Q93 8, but it only influences the par average by 1 point.  I admit my preempt / weak two function is not robust

I'd say that the problem is with your 1♦ function.

[OleBerg]

1NT... weak.

One of the downsides of weak NT in 4th seat seems to be that you can't play 1M anymore. You also are opening 1N less frequently.

 

Of course on the plus side sometimes you will get to play 1N when they could have found a making 2 level partscore otherwise.

And they have to make the blind lead, often an unenviable position.

[OleBerg]

[hv=d=e&v=n&n=sqj3hj75dk2ckq754&w=sat54hak9dt83c932&e=s976h632da9764cj8&s=sk82hqt84dqj5cat6]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

This is the complete hand. My partner didn't want to open his 12-count either so we got 0 instead of the 600 that everyone got in 3NT. How would you divide the fault here?

50/50

 

Opening hand + opening hand = Game.

[OleBerg]

K&R hand evaluator gives 10.3 for the N hand.

 

(http://www.jeffgoldsmith.org/cgi-bin/knr.cgi?hand=QJx+Jxx+Kx+KQxxx)

 

Personally, I'm still on the fence about whether it's a good idea to open the hand, and have enjoyed reading the comments.

 

The S hand is a clear 1NT (12-14) opener for me though.

Typed all for hands into the evaluator (with all spots.)

 

Results:

 

North: 10,30

South: 11,70

East: 10,40

West: 5,20

 

In all: 37,60.

 

It seems to me, that the calculater, or at least the way it is used, is not perfect.

 

On the NS hands, 3NT is completely laydown, while any of those hands will not make a laydown facing the East hand.

 

Edit: Ok, not laydown, but will often make.

 

It seems to me, that as the calculator is geared to handle bot balanced and unbalanced hands, Aces and Kings might be overrated for balanced deals, while intermidiates are underrated. Looking at the North hand, it seems quite likely, that this could be such a deal.

 

Edit: Thanks to rhm, see below.

[rhm]

K&R hand evaluator gives 10.3 for the N hand.

 

(http://www.jeffgoldsmith.org/cgi-bin/knr.cgi?hand=QJx+Jxx+Kx+KQxxx)

 

Personally, I'm still on the fence about whether it's a good idea to open the hand, and have enjoyed reading the comments.

 

The S hand is a clear 1NT (12-14) opener for me though.

Typed all for hands into the evaluator (with all spots.)

 

Results:

 

North: 10,30

South: 11,70

East: 10,40

West: 5,20

 

In all: 37,60.

 

It seems to me, that the calculater, or at least the way it is used, is not perfect.

 

On the NS hands, 3NT is completely laydown, while any of those hands will not make a laydown facing the East hand.

 

Edit: Ok, not laydown, but will often make.

 

It seems to me, that as the calculator is geared to handle bot balanced and unbalanced hands, Aces and Kings might be overrated for balanced deals, while intermidiates are underrated. Looking at the North hand, it seems quite likely, that this could be such a deal.

You got the directions wrong

 

East: 5.20

South: 10.40

West: 11.70

North: 10.30

 

K & R is a poor evaluator when it comes to notrump contracts below the slam level.

The 5th evaluator is far better in that respect. The South hand is clearly worth more than the North hand and what difference K & R assigns.

K & R is not bad for high level trump contracts. It counts a lot for distribution and honors in long suits.

 

Rainer Herrmann