What is the best line in 7NT?

[thebiker]

There has been some animated discussion/argument in my circle of players regarding the optimum line on the hand below:-

 

Contract; 7NT by South

South opened 1NT and N/S rejected a spade fit and went for the match points.

Lead; 5C

 

S AK53

H KQ93

D A5

C AQ9

 

S QJ72

H A108

D QJ

C KJ86

 

When you play on spades you will discover that West has a singleton.

Both opponents turn up with 3 clubs.

 

What is the "best line" to make 7NT

 

Thank you in advance for your comments/answers

 

regards

Brian Keable

"thebiker"

[lamford]

Contract; 7NT by South

South opened 1NT and N/S rejected a spade fit and went for the match points.

Lead; 5C

 

                      S AK53

                      H KQ93

                      D A5

                      C AQ9

 

                      S QJ72

                      H A108

                      D QJ

                      C KJ86

 

When you play on spades you will discover that West has a singleton.

Both opponents turn up with 3 clubs.

 

What is the "best line" to make 7NT?

I can't see anything better than cashing three hearts and seeing whether the jack falls, and then taking the diamond finesse when it does not. You are never going to play a red-suit squeeze on East, as that will be hugely anti-percentage, and there is no point playing a red-suit squeeze on West, as the simple line then works.

 

You will pick up five hearts with West anyway. But others are likely to spot something I have missed.

[phil_20686]

My first thought was to vienna coup the ace of diamonds, then cash two hearts, (unblocking the ten) and then cash black suit winners ending in the south hand. If the K of diamonds, or a heart, has not appeared then you need to read the position. west could be 1363 or 1453.

 

If you cash 4 spades and 2 clubs quickly you can often get a good read vs weaker players, as they will often come down to 4 diamonds before they think as that is the maximum number south can have.

 

However, i wonder if it might be better to simply cash 3 rounds of hearts. If the hearts are 3-3 happy days with no ambiguity. If the hearts are 4-2 with west having longer, you can always show up squeeze him if he has teh k of diamonds. If east has the longer hearts then the finesse in diamonds is going to be hugely favoured as the diamonds must be 7-2.

 

So line B will win with hearts 3-3, or with k d onside, essentially.

Line A will win with 3-3 hearts or 4-2 with the k of diamodns in the same hand as the hearts, or when there are 4h onside and not the k of diamonds but you guess to take the finesse.

 

It feels to me like line B will win, as the finesse in is always >50%, and when rho has 4h is close to 80%, when lho has 4h the finesse is still about 55%. and you make all the time. The extra squeeze options feel less than this.

[hatchett]

On a quick look I agree with Lamford. The chance of LHO having four ♥s has gone up but not by nearly enough to take the finesse in the suit when we still have the ♦ finesse in reserve. Also I would think as an aside the chance of LHO holding the ♦ K has gone up since we have discovered he has led from 3 low clubs when 4 or 5 low diamonds would probably have been a more attractive lead....certainly at the very least there is a restricted choice argument here....but maybe the auction suggested a ♣ lead as very passive

[pooltuna]

There has been some animated discussion/argument in my circle of players regarding the optimum line on the hand below:-

 

Contract; 7NT by South

South opened 1NT and N/S rejected a spade fit and went for the match points.

Lead; 5C

 

S AK53

H KQ93

D A5

C AQ9

 

S QJ72

H A108

D QJ

C KJ86

 

When you play on spades you will discover that West has a singleton.

Both opponents turn up with 3 clubs.

 

What is the "best line" to make 7NT

 

Thank you in advance for your comments/answers

 

regards

Brian Keable

"thebiker"

I don't know about the best but should be pretty close. Win the first trick in dummy play 4 rounds of ♠ 3 rounds of ♥ finish with 4 rounds of ♣ pitching the losing ♥ if the J has not shown up and lead the q♦

[Jlall]

Just think of it like this...

 

Compared to each other

 

Finessing hearts wins when LHO has:

 

x Jxxx xxxxx xxx

 

Cashing hearts planning to finesse diamonds later diamonds wins when LHO has:

 

x xxx Kxxxxx xxx

x xxx xxxxxx xxx

 

considering the club lead which is more likely? Obviously the latter since a diamond is a very normal lead with the first hand.

Edited October 26, 2009 by Jlall

[jdonn]

Contract; 7NT by South

South opened 1NT and N/S rejected a spade fit and went for the match points.

Lead; 5C

 

                       S AK53

                       H KQ93

                       D A5

                       C AQ9

 

                       S QJ72

                       H A108

                       D QJ

                       C KJ86

 

When you play on spades you will discover that West has a singleton.

Both opponents turn up with 3 clubs.

 

What is the "best line" to make 7NT?

I can't see anything better than cashing three hearts and seeing whether the jack falls, and then taking the diamond finesse when it does not. You are never going to play a red-suit squeeze on East, as that will be hugely anti-percentage, and there is no point playing a red-suit squeeze on West, as the simple line then works.

 

You will pick up five hearts with West anyway. But others are likely to spot something I have missed.

But by playing the squeeze you get all the times the 'simple line' work, plus if the squeeze on east works (he could be 4423 with the king of diamonds). Unless I'm the one missing something?

 

Yes west would lead from 7 small diamonds, but that's irrelevant I think as long as he would not lead from it once in his life.

[phil_20686]

no, you go off now when lho has K 7th in diamonds and two hearts, when the finesse in diamodns would have won, since the finesse is now 7-2 to be working this is a big loss.

 

lho shape would be 1273.

[jdonn]

Yes that's true. I was missing something!

[Fluffy]

LHO is more likelly to hold both cards, so cash 3 rounds of hearts before comitting to diamond finese

 

in retrospect I'd like to have cashed the hearts before the clubs, now I am giving up hearts 5-1 for the blockage.

[gnasher]

deleted

[benlessard]

Any1 for a quick Q of D at trick 2 against weaker opposition ?

 

Many average players will cover this (or think about it for too long) + the squeeze is a priori just a couple of % behind the H+finesse approach. After that it the black suit dont break well for the squeeze you might finesse RHO for the J of H.

[Jlall]

Any1 for a quick Q of D at trick 2 against weaker opposition ?

 

Many average players will cover this (or think about it for too long) + the squeeze is a priori just a couple of % behind the H+finesse approach. After that it the black suit dont break well for the squeeze you might finesse RHO for the J of H.

I like this play better if dummy is like Axxx. Most people would duck the DQ with Ax in dummy fearing declarer has QJT or whatever.

 

Against very bad players who you know to cover everything then yeah this is fine.

[phil_20686]

Any1 for a quick Q of D at trick 2 against weaker opposition ?

 

Many average players will cover this (or think about it for too long) + the squeeze is a priori just a couple of % behind the H+finesse approach. After that it the black suit dont break well for the squeeze you might finesse RHO for the J of H.

I always feel like such a bully if i do this kind of thing in a non-competitive atmosphere like normal club duplicate.

[lamford]

Any1 for a quick Q of D at trick 2 against weaker opposition ?

 

Many average players will cover this (or think about it for too long) + the squeeze is a priori just a couple of % behind the H+finesse approach. After that it the black suit dont break well for the squeeze you might finesse RHO for the J of H.

I like this play better if dummy is like Axxx. Most people would duck the DQ with Ax in dummy fearing declarer has QJT or whatever.

 

Against very bad players who you know to cover everything then yeah this is fine.

If they are bad enough (what David Burn would call a Planck's constant of above 10) then I would run the QD at trick two, and rise with the ace if it is not covered. Now I can squeeze East if he has four hearts and the king of diamonds.

[Jlall]

Any1 for a quick Q of D at trick 2 against weaker opposition ?

 

Many average players will cover this (or think about it for too long) + the squeeze is a priori just a couple of % behind the H+finesse approach. After that it the black suit dont break well for the squeeze you might finesse RHO for the J of H.

I always feel like such a bully if i do this kind of thing in a non-competitive atmosphere like normal club duplicate.

Huh? Do you also not like to falsecard?

[cherdanno]

Any1 for a quick Q of D at trick 2 against weaker opposition ?

 

Many average players will cover this (or think about it for too long) + the squeeze is a priori just a couple of % behind the H+finesse approach. After that it the black suit dont break well for the squeeze you might finesse RHO for the J of H.

I always feel like such a bully if i do this kind of thing in a non-competitive atmosphere like normal club duplicate.

Yeah, just like when I bid a slam against them, or 6NT when everyone else is in 6H, or beating their game with a forcing defense, or doubling them when I have QJT9 of trumps.

[ONEferBRID]

Assuming West did not cover the ♦ Q ( you taking the Ace ), play all of your winners coming down to :

 

North

♥ K Q 9 3

 

South

♥ A 10 8

♦ J

 

If the ♦ K "shows up" ( when the squeezed opp decided to keep J-4th of ♥ ), then you can cash the ♦ J .

 

If the ♦ K hasn't appeared, run your ♥ .

Either opp may have been squeezed and chose to keep the ♦ K .

Perhaps you got some discard info that may give you the fallback alternative of finessing the ♥'s . [ 10 to K, back to A.... 8 to 9 .... ] .

[Fluffy]

yeah well, a most common scenario would be to play ♦Q, LHO hesitating, and playing low hehe. I would duck and then cry when RHO produces the king :lol:

[Free]

yeah well, a most common scenario would be to play ♦Q, LHO hesitating, and playing low hehe. I would duck and then cry when RHO produces the king :lol:

You can also start with ♥T to see if it's covered and if LHO hesitates, and later look at the reaction on ♦Q :P And you can still execute the Vienna coup afterwards.

[catatonic]

very sherlock holmes ...it's the dog who barked in the night , or rather , why didn't he bark in the night ?

 

lots of diamonds about , not so many clubs , west on balance will hold at least 4 ♦, but he didn't lead one , wonder why ?

 

so cash the ♥'s . ♦ finesse for me

 

pity he lead a club though , otherwise could try advancing the JTR method , advance the J♣ for a 'finesse' to test the reaction to begin with

 

T♥ is much less tempting to cover

[bid_em_up]

I'm surprised noone has asked what four pitches West has made on the play of the black suits.

 

Anyway, I don't think one can be far off the mark by coming down to this three card ending, and then trying to read the position.

 

[hv=n=shq93dc&s=sha8djc]133|200|[/hv]

 

and then cashing the Ace of hearts.

 

Unless I am missing something (and I frequently do), this wins automatically whenever:

 

Hearts were 3-3 (and you can read the end position) or,

 

The diamond K is in the same hand as the heart J regardless of how many diamonds and hearts the person originally started with (he will have to be down to the Diamond K and Jx of hearts at trick 10, or will have had to pitch the diamond King to retain Jxx in hearts) or,

 

the heart J was originally singleton or doubleton in either hand or,

 

the diamond King was stiff in either hand (however unlikely it is) or,

 

East started with a singleton heart as the heart finesse becomes marked against West now (and it's quite possible that East was originally 4-1-5-3).

 

If nothing else, at this point, you can no longer play RHO for Jxxx of hearts, but you may have a better idea whether or not you need to play LHO for the same holding than you do about taking the diamond finesse at any point in time.

 

At trick 11, if the heart J has not shown up and neither has the diamond King, I will play a heart to the Queen, which loses to Jxxx(xx) in either hand (unless I have some reason to believe LHO started with Jxxx). Otherwise, I never had any intentions of finessing the heart J on either side.

 

If LHO started with the diamond K, and RHO originally had four or more hearts to the Jack, then the diamond finesse would have won and I go down one. Oh well. But I think thats the only case where this line loses and the finesse actually gains.

 

Now I'm terrible at calculating percentages, but surely this is better than taking the diamond finesse at any point in time.

[bid_em_up]

My first thought was to vienna coup the ace of diamonds, then cash two hearts, (unblocking the ten) and then cash black suit winners ending in the south hand. If the K of diamonds, or a heart, has not appeared then you need to read the position. west could be 1363 or 1453.

This is essentially the same as my given line, however, you do not cash the 2nd heart early in the hand, but instead at trick 11.

 

The fact that the diamond finesse is 50% in your line B is an illusion.

 

K - J

KJ - -

J - K

- - KJ

 

In your given line B (with the finesse), you win whenever West started with the K (50%). In (our) line A, you win if West started with KJ (25%) or East started with KJ (25%) which is the same combined 50% of the cases, just in a different manner. In Line A, it doesn't matter how many hearts or diamonds the hand started with, as long as both honors are in the same hand, but I think you stated that it does matter in your line B.

[jdonn]

Actually the odds one player started with KJ is (exactly) 24%. So relying on a finesse is slightly better than relying on one or the other player to have KJ.

 

Think of it another way. If west has KJ both succeed, if west has J and east has K they both fail. So you are weighing K with west and J with east vs KJ with east. In either case east has the jack. If east has the jack it's 12/25 east has the king but 13/25 west has the king. Therefore a finesse is better.

[bid_em_up]

Actually the odds one player started with KJ is (exactly) 24%. So relying on a finesse is slightly better than relying on one or the other player to have KJ.

 

Think of it another way. If west has KJ both succeed, if west has J and east has K they both fail. So you are weighing K with west and J with east vs KJ with east. In either case east has the jack. If east has the jack it's 12/25 east has the king but 13/25 west has the king. Therefore a finesse is better.

If you say so.

 

As far as I can tell, there are only 4 relevant holdings, and the last time I checked, each is equally likely.

 

K♦ - J♥

K♦J♥ - neither

J♥ - K♦

Neither - K♦J♥

 

With the finesse you win in 2/4 cases, diamond King with West (50%) and the other way, you still win in 2/4 cases (KJ with East or West), same 50%.

 

Excuse my math, but I am too dumb to understand anything else.