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Kick it in?


Jlall

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Pass seems clear.

 

:)

 

Seriously, where are 10 tricks coming from? Partner clearly has a lot of values in the black suits. That probably means there are a lot of losers in the red suits.

 

I am not saying that it won't make 10 tricks. But I think it is anti-percentage. And we are not vul.

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I'm bidding game. Give partner a mediocre hand like:

 

AQxx

AQx

xx

Kxxx

 

Not a maximum, wasted values in clubs, etc. But consider where the opponents cards are likely to be. Game is basically on two of three finesses through the opening bidder. This hand is also a quite minimum 1NT overcall, partner could easily have another point somewhere without calling it a maximum.

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Let's try an average, boring hand.

 

Everyone here apparently doubles a lot with 16-counts despite being balanced if the hand has 4432 shape with two clubs. So, partner likely has 4342 with a doubleton in one of the red suits. Maybe only three spades, but still a probable ruffing value on the short side.

 

So, maybe AQxx AQxx xx Kxx?

 

Opposite that hand, I expect to lose one club, one diamond. I'll probably have no problem ditching a low heart on the club King. So, I need to hold AQAQ in the majors to one loser, with our strength over theirs, meaning making finesses.

 

The entries pausity is illusory. I have the diamond Ace. That's enough to lead a club toward, with a probable return back by a club ruff (maybe the needed course), or to finesse a spade and then return in spades (when partner has four).

 

So, I'll go.

 

Not sure what partner's 3 or 3 options might have meant, though, and how this affects things.

 

The tricks, then, will be six spades, two hearts, one club, one diamond, one diamond ruff, for 11, minus one somewhere, for 10.

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everyone is too sure of partner having 4 spades for my taste. AQx or KQx is all that he needs for his bid at this vulnerability IMO.

 

lets give him a red doubleton, what are the 13 likelly tricks? our 6 spades, 3 in a red suit (ruffed), 2 in the other red suit, and 2 in clubs (Discarding the other red suit).

 

This means that unless partner covers the third round of spades with his lenght, he will need 5 tricks from his honnor power to make game.

 

I am sorry but I lol at those who give partner K and say that this is wastage when it is obvious that it is giving us a trick!

 

Give partner spade wastage and see how good game is:

 

KQJx AQxx xx Axx

 

Hopeless.

 

I just pass.

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I would bid 4. Partner is favourite to show up with a very useful red doubleton, and then there is not that far to 10 tricks.

 

Give partner spade wastage and see how good game is:

 

KQJx AQxx xx Axx

 

Hopeless.

 

I just pass.

 

'Hopeless' is a tad pessimistic, I think.

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game is hopeless, partscore you can still make  it :)

What are you talking about? You lose 1 diamond and 1 spade and if the heart hook is on you lose 1 heart. So you are on a finesse through the opening bidder.

 

Anyways I posted this because I read it in a match report of a flight B GNT match involving hrothgar and barmar. Barmar thought the author was harsh towards the players, so I read the whole writeup. He described bidding 4S on these cards irrationally exuberant lol. I thought it was a good bid.

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It seems really obvious to bid game to me, I would not have considered this a problem at all. Can't believe people are really passing. Partner may even well have a doubleton in a red suit. AKxx xx KQxx Axx is probably cold for 5, and why shouldn't his hand be this good, no one made him bid on the 3 level opposite maybe nothing. The 3 bid also suggests his club holding isn't defensive. Also remember this is a 1NT overcall, he can easily have 18.
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I'd have opened 2. Not having done so, I'd bid game now. Partner will have 4-card support nearly all the time; if he doesn't, he'll have an offensive hand like AQx KQJx xx Axxx.

 

Over 3, opener could have bid 3 or 3 instead of 3. At least one of these bids should be used to distinguish between a minimum and a maximum.

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I would bid 4 and bid it fast, as if I'm sure to make it (avoid a Double).

An Ace, an extra spade, our honors seem to be well placed, and pard may optimize dummy play because of the bidding inferences.

 

I would pass at MP maybe, on a very windy day.

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Let's try an average, boring hand.

 

Everyone here apparently doubles a lot with 16-counts despite being balanced if the hand has 4432 shape with two clubs. So, partner likely has 4342 with a doubleton in one of the red suits. Maybe only three spades, but still a probable ruffing value on the short side.

 

So, maybe AQxx AQxx xx Kxx?

 

Opposite that hand, I expect to lose one club, one diamond. I'll probably have no problem ditching a low heart on the club King. So, I need to hold AQAQ in the majors to one loser, with our strength over theirs, meaning making finesses.

 

The entries pausity is illusory. I have the diamond Ace. That's enough to lead a club toward, with a probable return back by a club ruff (maybe the needed course), or to finesse a spade and then return in spades (when partner has four).

 

So, I'll go.

 

Not sure what partner's 3 or 3 options might have meant, though, and how this affects things.

 

The tricks, then, will be six spades, two hearts, one club, one diamond, one diamond ruff, for 11, minus one somewhere, for 10.

A first for me:

 

I completely agree with Ken.

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Pass seems clear.

 

:)

 

Seriously, where are 10 tricks coming from? Partner clearly has a lot of values in the black suits. That probably means there are a lot of losers in the red suits.

 

I am not saying that it won't make 10 tricks. But I think it is anti-percentage. And we are not vul.

what would you bid if partner had opened 1 as for %age you would need a simul to convince me altho it is probably close.

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game is hopeless, partscore you can still make it :)

if it is hopeless then you will gladly giver me 3 to 1 odds for a $100/hand for say 100 hands? :)

 

KQJx

AQxx

xx

Axx

 

T9xxxx

xxx

Axx

J

 

Do you really think with the opener in front of the NT overcaller that the finesse is really 50%

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