assign blame

[subvert]

[hv=v=b&n=sakxxxxhkxxxdxxcx&s=sxxxhajxxdqtcqxxx]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

N S

1♠ 2♠

3♥ 4♥

4♠

 

2S:8-10p

assign blame,thanks!

[manudude03]

removed after seeing auction

[rhm]

North 100%

 

He needs ideal cards. Partner never has them.

Opponents silence makes it likely that partner has minor suit values.

It is not the end of the world if you miss a vulnerable game on a combined 18-20 HCP.

Make North slightly stronger, a major suit queen or a void in ♣ and 3 little ♦ and the bidding would be alright.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[jdonn]

South 100%. North can clearly have game opposite a constructive raise, in fact you play them largely so hands like his can make a game try. Obviously south has the heart fit which is good, but his holding in each of the other three suits sucks big time and his strength is very average. I'm having a lot of trouble thinking of a north hand that makes game opposite south but won't GF after a constructive raise.

[rhm]

South 100%. North can clearly have game opposite a constructive raise, in fact you play them largely so hands like his can make a game try. Obviously south has the heart fit which is good, but his holding in each of the other three suits sucks big time and his strength is very average. I'm having a lot of trouble thinking of a north hand that makes game opposite south but won't GF after a constructive raise.

The question is: Is 3♥ forcing and if yes, how is South supposed to show that he prefers to play in ♥.

It is true that you would like to sign off, but in ♥.

Unfortunately this is not possible if 3♥ is forcing.

As it turns out it does not matter whether you play in ♥ or ♠, but if anybody can anticipate this it is North not South.

From South perspective North is more likely to have a much stronger hand with 5-4 or 5-5 in the majors than the actual one.

From South perspective with a likely trick more in ♥, I would rather overbid and be in game in ♥ than playing 3♠.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[aguahombre]

South 100%. North can clearly have game opposite a constructive raise, in fact you play them largely so hands like his can make a game try. Obviously south has the heart fit which is good, but his holding in each of the other three suits sucks big time and his strength is very average. I'm having a lot of trouble thinking of a north hand that makes game opposite south but won't GF after a constructive raise.

So, what you are saying is North would just bid 4S with AKXXXX KQXX XX X, but not with AKQJXX KXXX XX X? Just asking --not an argument. I make the first one as a little over 40 percent (good) and the second as a little under 20 percent (bad). Trying to learn more in my old age about the art of blasting

[jdonn]

If you admit south is overbidding (to help his chances of finding the right suit) then how can you give him 0%?

[rhm]

If you admit south is overbidding (to help his chances of finding the right suit) then how can you give him 0%?

If I would do the same, How can I blame him :)

I'd rather overbid than play in the wrong strain.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[jdonn]

If you admit south is overbidding (to help his chances of finding the right suit) then how can you give him 0%?

If I would do the same, How can I blame him :)

I'd rather overbid than play in the wrong strain.

 

Rainer Herrmann

Haha isn't that the same as saying every problem is either 100-0, 0-100, or 50-50?

[fromageGB]

North 80%, south 20%.

 

North is a good minimum for an opening, and 3♥ has to be a forcing game try, but why? The hand is not strong enough to envisage game to be likely opposite a random good 9 count. Why should partner (the lead coming through him) have quick tricks in the minors AND heart honours AND the ♠Q (or most of these)? I think Qxx Qxx Kxx Kxxx is almost the BEST you could hope for, and 10 tricks looks very unlikely.

 

South does not have a maximum, and the minor holdings look a little wasted on the bidding. 3♠ is better.

[gwnn]

why is Kxx Kxxx opposite my xx x almost BEST? Just curious.

[fromageGB]

No, I am not saying the best fitting cards, but a typical good holding that would bid the spade game opposite a game try. Opener for the trial bid would more normally have something like AKxxx AJxx Ax xx, and responder is entitled to think his minor holdings of Kxx Kxxx are good.

[matmat]

why is Kxx Kxxx opposite my xx x almost BEST? Just curious.

because it's almost Axx Axxx

[gnasher]

From South perspective North is more likely to have a much stronger hand with 5-4 or 5-5 in the majors than the actual one.

From South perspective with a likely trick more in ♥, I would rather overbid and be in game in ♥ than playing 3♠.

Why are hearts likely to play a trick better than spades opposite a game-try?

[gwnn]

I think AKxxx AJxx Ax xx is a clear 4♠ bid over 8-10. Also I don't think Qxx Qxx Kxxx Kxx is a maximum 8-10 raise. It has no touching honors, the worst possible shape, no aces. In the context of 'what can opener hope for' it's an extremely terrible hand. I guess this might be a case of 'gustibus non disputandum est' but I think you're very pessimistic if you make game tries with a hand that good and only get to hope for random 4333 hands when you try for game.

[aguahombre]

Not being that familiar with constructive raises, but rather choosing to evaluate my raises later depending on the nature of pard's game try, I am just asking this out of ignorance:

 

Is South's 8-loser nine count with 3 bad trumps etc, a constructive raise?

[nigel_k]

South 90%.

 

South overbid as he should know the minor suit cards are close to worthless and he doesn't have much to cover partner's major suit losers. I don't know if North is worth a game try but it is not unreasonable.

 

However if spades are not 2-2 it looks like opponents are close to making 4♦ or even 3NT. If spades are 2-2 you have some play for 4♠.

[dellache]

I blame in order :

1. North for overbidding with more than 5 loosers.

2. The system for not allowing north to show 6S, 6 loosers, and short Clubs.

If you change the 2 minor queens into K♦ it becomes OK. If you change it into K♣ it remains terrible.

 

Usual trial bids are too often useless : you rarely know when to accept with borderline hands (Rosenberg wrote something clever about this in his book "Bridge Zia and me"). Here it's not the 4th heart which is important : it's the short club, and the fact that pard need a max plus no wasted values in clubs (ironically, 3♥ in the system I play shows... 6 loosers and short clubs... and pard has an easy signoff)

[pooltuna]

[hv=v=b&n=sakxxxxhkxxxdxxcx&s=sxxxhajxxdqtcqxxx]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

N S

1♠ 2♠

3♥ 4♥

4♠

 

2S:8-10p

assign blame,thanks!

if you mean 2♠ is supposed to be a constructive raise then it is an upgrade for me. That being said I have ♥ help so I don't find S at fault. Actually think it is just bad luck.

[Jlall]

looks ok to me, unlucky

[mike777]

10% NOrth

20% South

70% Rub of the green.

[rhm]

From South perspective North is more likely to have a much stronger hand with 5-4 or 5-5 in the majors than the actual one.

From South perspective with a likely trick more in ♥,  I would rather overbid and be in game in ♥ than playing 3♠.

Why are hearts likely to play a trick better than spades opposite a game-try?

I admit that "likely" may be an overbid.

 

I did a simulation (1000 deals) with the South hand specifying 2 and 3 for the small cards

 

I specified for North

 

5 or 6 cards in ♠

At least 4 cards in ♥, but ♥ never longer than ♠

13-15 HCP

 

Result:

 

3♠ made on 721 deals

4♥ made on 442 deals

4♠ made on 375 deals

 

So when game makes double dummy, game in ♥ was almost 18% more likely to make than in ♠

Also if you accept my restraints for the simulation, 4♥ can hardly be criticized vulnerable at IMPs

 

As you can see from these statistics playing in ♥ had on average an advantage over ♠, but this advantage was reduced because surprisingly often it was better to play in ♠, when for example trumps broke 4-1 in ♥

 

One more consideration:

 

North may have bid 3♥ to find out which game to play rather than whether to play game.

If you bid now 3♠ over 3♥ you can say good bye to your 4-4 fit in ♥.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[rhm]

I did another simulation (1000) deals based on the North hand

 

My specification for South

 

3 or 4 card support in ♠

 

8-10p including distributional points for short side suits as follows

 

If South had 3 card support in ♠ 123p (doubleton, singleton, void, but voids were very rare and South was usually short in ♥)

If South had 4 card support in ♠ 135p for short suits

 

Result

 

game in ♠ was on in 222 deals

3♠ made in 588 deals

 

This confirms my suspicion that a game try is against the odds.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[gnasher]

5 or 6 cards in ♠

At least 4 cards in ♥, but ♥ never longer than ♠

13-15 HCP

I think these constraints might be distorting the results somewhat. When opener is 5-5 in the 13-15 range, he will often insist on game himself.

[billw55]

I guess "assign blame" means we assume something is wrong? Here 4♠ can make with trumps 2-2 and catching the ♥Q. I suppose that is pretty low odds though.

 

If anyone is to blame I think it must be north. I put myself in south's seat: partner's 3♥ is a game try. It says, bid game with help in hearts. He is not asking about the quality of my minor suit holdings! I have what he asked for so that is the answer I give. I don't really see an alternative here. 3♠ over 3♥? That says "sorry p no help in hearts". How will north keep confidence in me on future deals, if I deny what I have for no reason?

 

North, on the other hand, has decided to make a game try with a near bottom-scraping minimum opener. Only he can know that minor suit values could be wasted. So I say 100% north (of what blame there is).