Hanoi5 Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 [hv=n=sak7642hat4dajc75&s=sqj9hq965dkq7cak8]133|200|[/hv] You have this bidding sequence: 1NT Pa 2♥ Pa2♠ Pa 4♦ Pa5♣ Pa 6♠ PaPa Pa And receive a ♥8 lead, on which you play the ♥4 from dummy... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlall Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 What? Is this matchpoints or something? At imps it seems like we're asking which is more likely, LHO having a stiff heart RHO having a void, obviously LHO having a stiff heart is wayyyyyy more likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanoi5 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 ♥KJxxx doesn't call for a double of 2♥? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdanno Posted October 15, 2009 Report Share Posted October 15, 2009 ♥KJxxx doesn't call for a double of 2♥? Make that KJ732. No, I am pretty sure most people would not double. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlall Posted October 16, 2009 Report Share Posted October 16, 2009 I ATTEMPTED MATH AND FAILED! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlall Posted October 16, 2009 Report Share Posted October 16, 2009 OK cherdano said my math is off EPIC FAIL. Anyways main point is: 1) KJxxxx is much less likely than KJ7xx2) They don't always lead a heart from 6 to the KJ, they always lead one from a stiff3) They don't always lead the 8 from KJ87xx4) They sometimes lightner double with a heart void All of this means that you have to be massively convinced they would have doubled with KJ7xx to go that route. This brings me to 5) Your edge if your read is right about whether they would X with that or not is very small anyways. Your loss if you are wrong is very large. A long winded way of saying you are making a very very very anti percentage play in a vacuum, more than you think I think, so you better be damn sure you're right. Here I don't think there's any reason to think that. Most RHOs would not X with KJ7xx and out, it could easily get redoubled and make a million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted October 16, 2009 Report Share Posted October 16, 2009 I look at the opening leader and his convention card, does he lead 4th highest and is he the sort of person that's incapable of a false card. If so, ace, no brainer. IMPS ace, no brainer. Matchpoints if they lead 3rd and 5th it's more of a coin toss, I probably run it in a good field as I'll be losing to anybody in 6N with 12 tricks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted October 16, 2009 Report Share Posted October 16, 2009 A♥, unless I know something very specific about these opponents. Against unknown ops, stiff 8♥ is by far the biggest risk, and many will not lead low from a king against a slam anyway. Third best? West has lead from ♥KJ8? I'll pay off to that. Or from ♥KJ8732? Now that would be true clairvoyance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pooltuna Posted October 16, 2009 Report Share Posted October 16, 2009 A♥, unless I know something very specific about these opponents. Against unknown ops, stiff 8♥ is by far the biggest risk, and many will not lead low from a king against a slam anyway. Third best? West has lead from ♥KJ8? I'll pay off to that. Or from ♥KJ8732? Now that would be true clairvoyance. At IMPS the A is auto. at MP I would think that a holding of KJ8(x) is pretty standard and likely right behind a stiff 8 in probability of being led by good opponents. So at MPs this is less clear as many rate to be in 6NT where a passive lead is more probable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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