Lead problem

[dicklont]

♠ 1098

♥ AQ1054

♦ J64

♣ 92

 

(1♦) 1♥ (Dbl) 2♥

(2NT) pass (3NT) a.p.

 

Do I lead into declarers heart stop(s) or is a passive lead preferable?

 

Edit: It's MP's.

[Jlall]

Is this MP or imps?

 

At imps, I like a heart. If they have the king and the jack of hearts between them I need to lead a heart even if partner has the entry because they have a solid stopper even if partner is in. Hopefully we can knock that out, get in, and take 4 hearts and whatever we got in with via partner leading a heart through after our lead, or us just being able to cash out.

 

Even if they don't have the heart jack it could be right to lead a heart if WE have our sides entry (Jxx of diamonds could easily be our entry if partner has Qx or Kx). If our Jxx is a possible entry we definitely need to get hearts going.

 

If partner has our sides entry and the HJ then leading something else could be right, but remember we aren't dead just because we gave them a trick. It has to specifically be their NINTH trick. So leading a spade is a parlay that partner has an entry and the HJ, but they have nine tricks if I lead a heart into them.

 

Oh sorry meant to also write, there is the question of WHICH heart to lead, low or the queen. I like low even though the queen is a winner if if declarer has Kxx, and dummy has Jx, and we have our entry. If we for sure had our entry I'd play for that, but since partner is likely to have our entry then low might be ok even on Kxx Jx, but the queen will ALWAYS be a disaster on Kx Jxx regardless of who has our entry. So even though Kxx is more likely than Kx, low seems superior.

 

Also in favor of a heart at imps, don't completely discount declarer having J9xx of hearts and partner having Kxx! It's unlikely but there's a non zero chance of that.

[Jlall]

Edit: It's MP's.

In this case I like the ST. Where the goal of imps is to lead and maximize our chances of beating the hand, often our goal at MP is to lead and minimize the chance of blowing a trick (within reason).

 

Our spade holding is so attractive for the sake of passivity while also being reasonably likely to set up some spade tricks or set up an entry for partner to shoot the HJ through that I like it.

 

Basically the thought of often blowing a trick KNOWINGLY when we have a three card sequence to lead from is too much for me.