What to lead?

[MattieShoe]

[hv=d=w&v=e&s=sk752ht4datcqj853]133|100|Scoring: IMP

(P) P (1♠) P

(2♥) P (3♠) P

(4♠) P (P) P[/hv]

What do you lead? Not some sort of tricksy hand resulting in a big point swing -- the contract should make cold no matter what is led, and in fact should score the exact same with 12 of the 13 leads. I'm just trying to figure out the thought process behind selecting a lead in suit contracts, not so much the lead itself on this particular hand. Or to put it another way... How would you rank your potential leads in this situation, and more importantly, why?

[TylerE]

A♦ seems rather stand out to be...those small trumps aren't gonna win naturally.

[RichMor]

Small Club looks best. We hope to develop a trick in that suit to go along with a Spade, a Diamond, and something else.

 

The Diamond Ace could work out if pard can give me a ruff. But if pard has the Diamond King then we might take a Club, a Spade and 2 Diamonds.

 

RichM

[gwnn]

why do i need to be a genius, why cant i just lead top of sequence? if pard has the ♦K he will more often than not be able to give me a ruff later too.

[Lobowolf]

[hv=d=w&v=e&s=sk752ht4datcqj853]133|100|Scoring: IMP

(P) P (1♠) P

(2♥) P (3♠) P

(4♠) P (P) P[/hv]

I'm just trying to figure out the thought process behind selecting a lead in suit contracts, not so much the lead itself on this particular hand. Or to put it another way... How would you rank your potential leads in this situation, and more importantly, why?

Thought process -

 

A lot of defense is dependent upon identifying and countering declarer's plan. Very often, declarer's plan is highly dependent on the assets that dummy provides. Here, dummy has a long side suit (at least 5 hearts). Declarer has extra strength, from the jump. Declarer also has extra length in spades, and thus fewer potential side suit losers. Generally, that means that declarer is likely to have enough tricks, if given time to get them. Declarer's plan might very likely be something like:

 

1) Draw trump

2) Set up and cash whatever heart tricks are available, pitching minor suit losers.

 

Therefore, I'd rule out hearts and spades right away.

 

That leaves the minors, and there's nothing in the auction to distinguish between clubs and diamonds; therefore, my choice between the two will depend entirely on my holding in those suits.

 

As a general rule, leading suits headed by ace-empty, against a suit contract, is not a good idea. That's an immediate strike against diamonds. The fact that it's a doubleton maybe means that effect is somewhat mitigated, as I can pick up a ruff, but there's no guarantee that's the case (notice - I have a pretty good hand, and the opponents bid straight to game; partner is likely to be short on entries). Leading aces sort of puts a lot of our eggs in one basket. The old cliche is that aces were made to capture kings. When you lead them, they capture 2's and 3's.

 

Next to clubs - Not a great holding, but not a bad one, either. I have a 2-card honor sequence, at least. The standard lead is the queen. If partner has the king, the queen sets up as many tricks as I can cash before declarer ruffs in. If partner has the ten, I at least won't blow a trick (and if he also has the king of diamonds, I have trump control, so I have time to get in and switch to Ace, then a small diamond, hopefully picking up the setting trick via a 3rd-round diamond ruff). If partner has the ace of clubs behind the king, that's great. If declarer has the king behind partner's ace, we were only ever entitled to 1 club trick, anyway.

 

So on the auction, minors are definitely preferable to majors; on my holdings, clubs are preferable to diamonds. There are various circumstances that might persuade me to lead a non-standard card, but none of those circumstances is present here, so I'll lead the queen of clubs. Generally, honor sequences are a pretty good blend of aggressiveness and safety.

 

Other possibilities would be the ace of diamonds or a non-standard club, but I don't think there's a close second choice. If Q♣ is a 10, I don't think there's anything as high as a 6.

[pooltuna]

[hv=d=w&v=e&s=sk752ht4datcqj853]133|100|Scoring: IMP

(P) P (1♠) P

(2♥) P (3♠) P

(4♠) P (P) P[/hv]

What do you lead? Not some sort of tricksy hand resulting in a big point swing -- the contract should make cold no matter what is led, and in fact should score the exact same with 12 of the 13 leads. I'm just trying to figure out the thought process behind selecting a lead in suit contracts, not so much the lead itself on this particular hand. Or to put it another way... How would you rank your potential leads in this situation, and more importantly, why?

Q♣

[quiddity]

IMO, the big strike against DA is that if partner has the DK we will often have another chance (after winning SK) to switch to diamonds and still get the ruff. If partner doesn't have DK, he will usually need a side ace to give us a ruff and that seems highly unlikely given the bidding and our hand.

 

edit: just realized gwnn already said this.. never mind.

[mike777]

[hv=d=w&v=e&s=sk752ht4datcqj853]133|100|Scoring: IMP

(P) P (1♠) P

(2♥) P (3♠) P

(4♠) P (P) P[/hv]

What do you lead? Not some sort of tricksy hand resulting in a big point swing -- the contract should make cold no matter what is led, and in fact should score the exact same with 12 of the 13 leads. I'm just trying to figure out the thought process behind selecting a lead in suit contracts, not so much the lead itself on this particular hand. Or to put it another way... How would you rank your potential leads in this situation, and more importantly, why?

3c

 

second choice QC

[MattieShoe]

Interesting... I ended up leading Q♣ and I figured it'd be the most popular lead, but I was tempted to lead T♥ or 2♠, both unpopular choices. A♦ would have been my 4th choice, and I didn't even consider a low ♣.

 

T♥ - Declarer is weak in hearts, so we may finesse dummy. If partner has AQ over KJ, could allow declarer to make a mistake by trumping small on 3rd heart trick, or force him to burn a higher trump.

 

2♠ would simply be to pull trump from the board to prevent ruffing a loser in the short hand... With long hearts on the board, he could have singleton ♣ or ♦. Plus partner is likely void in trump, or perhaps a singleton.

 

On this particular hand, board had AJ♥ and partner KQ♥, but declarer was void. They had AKT♣ and KQ♦ as well, a 7-2 fit in ♠ (partner was void) and didn't need trump on the board for ruffing, so it didn't matter. Low ♣ would have allowed them 3 ♣ tricks instead of 2, but wouldn't change final score (the ♣ could be sluffed on A♥, and he had too many diamonds to avoid losing A♦)

[andy_h]

I'd lead a low club although I wouldn't mind the Queen.

 

The lead that I absolutely hate the most is a trump. Giving away tempo is the worst thing you can do.

[Lobowolf]

T♥ - Declarer is weak in hearts, so we may finesse dummy. If partner has AQ over KJ, could allow declarer to make a mistake by trumping small on 3rd heart trick, or force him to burn a higher trump.

Declarer generally pitches his losers, ruffs them, or eventually loses them. We know dummy has at least 5 hearts, so if declarer did have heart losers, they wouldn't have gone anywhere. He can't ruff them in dummy, and it's unlikely that dummy has a second suit to pitch them on. Getting the hearts set up, though, by cashing whatever winners you do have in the suit, can provide a vehicle by which Declarer might get rid of losers in the minors.

[eyhung]

Lobowolf has it right. Heart Ten is one of the worst possible leads given the bidding. There are obviously hands where leading a heart is right, but they are far less common than hands where leading a (high) club is right.

[MattieShoe]

I wasn't saying I was right. The purpose for posting was to figure out where my logic is flawed :-) Your logic makes perfect sense -- I appreciate the feedback.

[Lobowolf]

Another good time for a plug for Mike Lawrence's "Opening Leads." Pretty comprehensive, and he goes into the rationales behind different leads in a clear and fairly comprehensive way.

 

To the extent that you can picture what declarer's going to do, your defense (including but not limited to opening leads) will improve. Obivously, that's easier to do after you see dummy, but even before - picture...you have a good hand with long trump, and dummy's got a good passed hand with a 5-card side suit (at least). There's a really good chance that the suits you're going to want played (as declarer) as soon as possible are spades and hearts - draw trump and set up the side suit. So most of the time, those won't be the right suits for defenders to play.

[skjaeran]

I don't like to lead an ace, especially not since the ten can come into play if I don't lead it. Besides, with a trump entry, I can very often attack diamonds later if that was the best lead.

 

Any major seems bad on the bidding and looking at my hand.

 

So it's gonna be a club, prefer the queen (or jack if I play Rusinov), it looks safer than a low.

[P_Marlowe]

Queen of clubs.

 

This is basically a book lead.

 

You have 4 trumps, and even some trump contol, and your aim

is to start shortening declarers long trumps, which may develop

a trump trick, the chances would be better, if you had a higher

trump than the 7 besides the king, but the 7 will be ok often enough.

This strategy is called forcing defence.

 

The Queen will also develop 1 or two tricks in clubs, if you hit partner

with a club honor, and it is a fairly safe lead.

 

In general, the unbid suits are the first suits to look at, if you consider

which suit to lead.

This means, hearts is out, this is declarers side suit, he will likely try

to develop, so leading the suit gives away a tempo.

With lots of trumps, you can either try to go for a ruff, which is not book

thinking, but a survey at a european championship showed (*), that leading

a single was often better than going for the forcing defence, the forcing

defence is a long term plan, which will work, if you hold trump control

and some intermediate trumps.

Leading singeltons is a short term plan.

Doubleton leads dont lead often to ruffs, because they require quite often,

that partner gets in twice, not necessary, if you lead the Ace, but in general.

 

Another point to consider: Given your strength, you cant expect much from

partner at most one trick, so you need to look out for the leads, which

requires the least from partner.

Clubs will be ok, if partner has a top honor, but the ten of clubs will also help.

 

The Ace will work brilliant, if p has the king, but will remove a guess for declarer,

if partner has the Queen.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

 

PS: (*) Nobody should ask me which championship and who did it, I have read

this a couple of years agao, and the following sentences are how I explained

the result of the survey to myself, so one either buys the logic or gives some

counter reasons, which I would appreciate to hear.

[the hog]

Low C.