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What are you aiming for?

 

If you need one trick quickly then play the king.

 

If you need the maximum play the jack as there is no way to get two tricks after the king successfully won the first round (except the very unlikely stiff queen offside).

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Ignoring singleton or doubleton honors in the opponents' hands, there are 4 possibilities:

 

1. AQx offside. It doesn't matter what you do, you're not getting any tricks in the suit.

 

2. AQx onside. You'll take two tricks if you play the J the first time and the K the second time, but only one trick if you play the K the first time.

 

3. A offside, Q onside. You'll take one trick either way.

 

4. A onside, Q offside. You'll take one trick either way.

 

So in the only case where it makes a difference, you need to play the J to maximize your tricks.

 

As Cascade said, the only other issue is whether you can afford to lose the lead. If you're in a close contract, and you just need to steal one trick, play the K.

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