Expert Opinion?

[hrothgar]

However, in this case, you don't seem to be interested in asking questions.  Rather, you're begging people to say "You were right and your partner was an idiot". 

I certainly was interested in asking questions. I thought my view

of the hand and the bidding was completely right, but I wanted

to know if that would be corroborated by experts. So far I have

some expert agreement with my view, and nothing that really

makes me question the accuracy of my view.

Other than the fact that some people are openly laughing at you, while several others question your assumptions about an undiscussed 5NT bid?

[USViking]

Let's start with the following:

 

Assume that the auction had started

 

1♥ - 4N

5♥ - 5N

6♦ - ???

 

Do you recommend passing or bidding 7♥?

You mean to ask if I would recommend bidding 6H or 7H,

don't you?

 

I would recommend bidding 6H, in view of apparent prevailing

expert opinion here that 7 is only a 50-50 prospect.

 

I understand the answer might not be the same under a different

scoring system, or toward the end of a tourament.

[USViking]

Other than the fact that some people are openly laughing at you,

I accept that I may be laughed at if I err.

 

 

Perhaps you will accept it if I now insert an LOL

in response to your suggestion that someone might

recommend passing 6D.

 

 

 

 

while several others question your assumptions about an undiscussed 5NT bid?

I do not accept this because, as I suggested before,

if old-fashioned Blackwood for Aces may be employed

without discussion, then it is reasonable to assume

that old-fashioned Blackwood for Kings may also be.

[the hog]

USViking, look at Tyler E's post. When a player jumps to 4NT over an opening bid, it implies a huge fit with opener, particularly if you are playing Key Card Blackwood - ok I know you were not here. Tyler suggests that after the 4NT response a 6D bid should ask for the D king, and this makes perfect sense. If you had a big D suit in a slam going hand, would you not start with 2D first.

 

Of course this is a treatment in an established partnership. Personally, I think you reached a reasonable contract.

[Cascade]

Let's start with the following:

 

Assume that the auction had started

 

1♥ - 4N

5♥ - 5N

6♦ - ???

 

Do you recommend passing or bidding 7♥?

You mean to ask if I would recommend bidding 6H or 7H,

don't you?

 

I would recommend bidding 6H, in view of apparent prevailing

expert opinion here that 7 is only a 50-50 prospect.

 

I understand the answer might not be the same under a different

scoring system, or toward the end of a tourament.

Assuming the north hand above the grand is better than 50-50. If south has the ♦K it is near 100% and if south has the ♣K it is probably about 50%.

 

Overall this is much more like 75% at the moment you make the bid.

[USViking]

USViking, look at Tyler E's post. 

I did. But see below.

 

 

 

When a player jumps to 4NT over an opening bid, it implies a huge fit with opener... 

I know.

 

 

 

 

...Tyler suggests that after the 4NT response a 6D bid should ask for the D king, and this makes perfect sense.

I do not have a bid in my limited arsenal to cover this.

 

I do appreciate that you and others have drawn my attention

to the fact that the CK is marginally important.

 

 

 

 

If you had a big D suit in a slam going hand, would you not start with 2D first.

I nowhere said or implied that partner should have bid 2D.

 

I agree that 4NT is appropriate. I thought that was clear enough

from what I said earleir.

 

 

 

 

Of course this is a treatment in an established partnership. Personally, I think you reached a reasonable contract. 

I am still baffled as to how 7H might be worthy of consideration

in most circumstances.

[USViking]

Assuming the north hand above the grand is better than 50-50.  If south has the ♦K it is near 100% and if south has the ♣K it is probably about 50%.

 

Overall this is much more like 75% at the moment you make the bid.

If 7H is a scientific 75% favorite to make after I show two Aces

then I will go along.

[peachy]

posting here is not a problem! just ignor the scumbags that tell you otherwise.

Lets be reasonable. Posting here is not a problem if wanting expert advice. Offering responses that are not adv or exp level is, however, not proper. OP did nothing to irritate even a scumbag although I'm not sure who you mean by that.

[cherdanno]

I think you should post in the A/E forum if you think the thread will be interesting for A/E posters. If you post in the B/I forum you are still asking for the input of A/E posters, and you will often get it.

[Jlall]

Let's start with the following:

 

Assume that the auction had started

 

1♥ - 4N

5♥ - 5N

6♦ - ???

 

Do you recommend passing or bidding 7♥?

You mean to ask if I would recommend bidding 6H or 7H,

don't you?

 

I would recommend bidding 6H, in view of apparent prevailing

expert opinion here that 7 is only a 50-50 prospect.

 

I understand the answer might not be the same under a different

scoring system, or toward the end of a tourament.

If your partner shows 1 king you think you are 50/50 to make slam?

 

LOL

 

edit: Ok cascade beat me to that one.

[the hog]

I nowhere said or implied that partner should have bid 2D.

 

I agree that 4NT is appropriate. I thought that was clear enough

from what I said earleir.

 

 

 

 

Of course this is a treatment in an established partnership. Personally, I think you reached a reasonable contract. 

I am still baffled as to how 7H might be worthy of consideration

in most circumstances.

Well actually in MY regular partnership, we WOULD have started with 2D; however that is a story for another day.

[Trinidad]

In the BBO main room, on the first board to bid with my partner, I would have bid the hand exactly the same. Anything else is for unlucky experts.

 

Rik

[USViking]

If your partner shows 1 king you think you are 50/50 to make slam?

 

LOL

 

edit: Ok cascade beat me to that one. 

 

Here is my reply to cascade.

 

If 7H is a scientific 75% favorite to make after I show two Aces

then I will go along. 

 

That does not mean I will ever bid 7 myself under such cimrcumstances,

because I won't. And I won't like it if a partner does so. However, 75%

is I think too good to reasonably voice objection to unless the odds can

be improved by further investigation.

[hrothgar]

Let's start with the following:

 

Assume that the auction had started

 

1♥ - 4N

5♥ - 5N

6♦ - ???

 

Do you recommend passing or bidding 7♥?

You mean to ask if I would recommend bidding 6H or 7H,

don't you?

 

I would recommend bidding 6H, in view of apparent prevailing

expert opinion here that 7 is only a 50-50 prospect.

Sorry

 

I did, indeed, mean to ask whether you would bid 6♥ or 7♥

[billw55]

I am still baffled as to how 7H might be worthy of consideration

in most circumstances.

I will try to explain.

 

From north's point of view, he has no agreement with a first time partner and therefore no certain way to find out about the ♦K. There are three places it could be: partner, east, or west. If it is with partner or west, 7♥ is cold. That's a 2/3 chance right there. Also consider that the ♦K is more likely to be with partner than just 1/3, due to the opening bid. In total, 75% chance to make the grand seems reasonable.

 

At nonvul, down one versus making 6 loses 14 IMPs. Making 7 versus making 6 gains 11 IMPs. So you only need 14:11 odds for the risk to be worth it. But here you have about 3:1 in your favor, so clearly it's a good risk.

 

I hope I got those numbers right. If not someone will surely correct me.

[USViking]

 

...From north's point of view, he has no agreement with a first time partner and therefore no certain way to find out about the ♦K.  There are three places it could be: partner, east, or west.  If it is with partner or west, 7♥ is cold.  That's a 2/3 chance right there.  Also consider that the ♦K is more likely to be with partner than just 1/3, due to the opening bid.  In total, 75% chance to make the grand seems reasonable.

 

At nonvul, down one versus making 6 loses 14 IMPs.  Making 7 versus making 6 gains 11 IMPs.  So you only need 14:11 odds for the risk to be worth it.  But here you have about 3:1 in your favor, so clearly it's a good risk.

 

I hope I got those numbers right.  If not someone will surely correct me.

Thank you for providing calculations for both DK location and scoring.

[ArtK78]

The IMP calculation provided above does not take into account the possibility that the other table (or, in a multiple score comparison situation, some other tables) the players holding these hands will not even get to a small slam. While this may seem hard to believe, the fact remains that players have accidents in the bidding, stopping short of slam or playing in a cue bid.

 

For that reason, the IMP odds of bidding a grand slam should be higher than the comparison of the IMPs gained or lost by bidding 7 as opposed to 6 would seem to indicate.

 

Also, one must take into account whether the small slam is cold. Interestingly enough, if the small slam is not 100% the odds needed to bid the grand slam may be less than if the small slam is 100%. This is because the amount of IMPs lost when you bid the grand slam is smaller if the small slam does not make.

 

It is my understanding that, taking all of these factors into account, the proper IMP odds for bidding a grand as opposed to a small is about 70%.

[billw55]

Thanks for the clarification ArtK. Particularly at IMP pairs as in this example, there will usually be one or two pairs that foul it up.

 

Assuming your 70% is correct, this decision is almost a tossup.

[jdonn]

I've lurked quietly for months but I can't take it any more. Why hasn't anyone noticed partner doesn't need the king of diamonds for 7 to be cold? AQx Axxxxx x xxx one time?! Axxx ATxxx x KQx? Need I go on? Once north has decided to bid blackwood it's CLEAR to bid 7 opposite both missing aces if he doesn't know what 5NT would mean/ask for.

[billw55]

Yes there are a few extra chances, I figured that in guessing at 75% chance overall. Perhaps the total chance is higher than that? Not sure, stiff ♦ is pretty specific. What do you think?

[Phil]

I've lurked quietly for months but I can't take it any more.

And you choose to reappear for this?

 

MikeH can't be far behind.