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Binsky'd II


Phil

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I have been thinking about ducking the first diamond but it seems to fail misserably.

 

Switching to ruff, A, AK, if LHO has Qxxx I think I will go down.

This line seems clear, maybe I'm missing something clever.

 

Where did my 5S bid come from lol

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This line seems clear, maybe I'm missing something clever.

Nothing clever needed, but if you thought about it some more, you might determine that you are getting some nasty splits when your opponents bid up to 5 on nine trump.

 

By the way, I took the 'clear' line.

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Assuming I ruff and cash the spade Ace, do both opponents follow?

 

(And I am thinking about whether or not I am ruffing trick 1 with the spade K, to possibly retain an extra entry to my hand, but haven't decided yet)

 

At first glance, it looks like the only losers should be the spade Q and the diamond Q as long as trumps are at least 3-1. It's just a matter of figuring out what order to establish this in.

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Assuming I ruff and cash the spade Ace, do both opponents follow?

 

(And I am thinking about whether or not I am ruffing trick 1 with the spade K, to possibly retain an extra entry to my hand, but haven't decided yet)

 

At first glance, it looks like the only losers should be the spade Q and the diamond Q as long as trumps are at least 3-1. It's just a matter of figuring out what order to establish this in.

If you cash the A, both follow with spots

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This line seems clear, maybe I'm missing something clever.

I've spent ages trying to think of something clever, and have mostly only come up with something stupid, except possibly this:

 

Ruff, cash the top spades. If trumps are 2-2, concede a diamond; if they're 3-1 either way, cross to A and take a diamond finesse.

 

If we assume that RHO has a singleton somewhere, that gains against:

  2443 - 2515

  1444 - 3514 with Q on the left

 

Fluffy's line gains against:

  3433 - 1525 with Q on the right

  3424 - 1534 with Q on the right

  1444 - 3514 with Q on the right

 

Neither line works against 3415 - 1543.

 

Does that sound right? And which line is better?

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This line seems clear, maybe I'm missing something clever.

I've spent ages trying to think of something clever, and have mostly only come up with something stupid, except possibly this:

 

Ruff, cash the top spades. If trumps are 2-2, concede a diamond; if they're 3-1 either way, cross to A and take a diamond finesse.

 

If we assume that RHO has a singleton somewhere, that gains against:

  2443 - 2515

  1444 - 3514 with Q on the left

 

Fluffy's line gains against:

  3433 - 1525 with Q on the right

  3424 - 1534 with Q on the right

  1444 - 3514 with Q on the right

 

Neither line works against 3415 - 1543.

 

Does that sound right? And which line is better?

Yeah that line looks quite reasonable, seems like the Fluffy line is still better.

 

If we are going to try to guess which shapes are more liekly, I think 3514 with Qxx spades is less likely than 1534 with Qxx of diamonds since the former has better defense.

 

Sometimes LHO won't bid 3H with 3433, but at white/red I think they almost always would.

 

With 1444 they might sometimes bid 4H at w/r (depends on opp, I think I do this more than most people?)

 

So my inferences would indicate the lines fluffy wins on are more likely on average, plus there are more of them (though obviously the stiff Q of diamonds combo is heavily discounted).

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I think that ruff; A; K would lose only if are 5-0.

If East has Q, I don't think you can cope with both 2515 and 3514. He ruffs the second diamond and plays a heart. If you play another diamond and he's 2515, he ruffs with Q and plays a third heart. If, instead, you draw a second trump, you lose when East is 3514.

 

But maybe i should ruff with high and lead small to hand in order to finesse ?

You would need something like Qxx xxxxxxxxxx with East

That loses when Q is singleton and Q is offside. Given the bidding, that's quite a likely spade layout.

When does it gain over my line? (Ruff low; cash the top spades. If trumps are 2-2, concede a diamond; if they're 3-1 either way, cross to ♣A and take a diamond finesse.)

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He ruffs the second diamond and plays a heart. If you play another diamond and he's 2515, he ruffs with Q and plays a third heart.

Discard and claim!?

 

That loses when ♠Q is singleton and ♦Q is offside. Given the bidding, that's quite a likely spade layout.

huh? 5 bid with 5; Q; Q/xxx ?!

 

2nd line was intended specifically versus Qxx;xxxxx;xxxxx as i doun't see other way how to make then...

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He ruffs the second diamond and plays a heart.  If you play another diamond and he's 2515, he ruffs with Q and plays a third heart.

Discard and claim!?

It's gone:

  Heart lead, ruffed

  A

  K, ruffed

  Second heart, ruffed

  Diamond, ruffed with Q, as third heart is pitched

  Another heart, to which South has to follow suit.

 

After ruffing this heart, dummy has a bare A, LHO has xx and Q, and declarer still has a club loser.

 

That loses when ♠Q is singleton and ♦Q is offside. Given the bidding, that's quite a likely spade layout.

huh? 5 bid with 5; Q; Q/xxx ?!

I meant that for RHO to bid 5 with only five of them (which we know he did), he's more likely to have xxx than Qxx.

 

2nd line was intended specifically versus Qxx;xxxxx;xxxxx as i doun't see other way how to make then...

OK, that makes sense.

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I think that ruff; A; K would lose only if are 5-0.

If East has Q, I don't think you can cope with both 2515 and 3514. He ruffs the second diamond and plays a heart. If you play another diamond and he's 2515, he ruffs with Q and plays a third heart. If, instead, you draw a second trump, you lose when East is 3514.

If he is 2515 and ruffs with Q He is ruffing 4 hearts in dummy making 9 trumps and 2 aces as his 11 tricks I think.

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I don't think you can cope with both 2515 and 3514. He ruffs the second diamond and plays a heart. If you play another diamond and he's 2515, he ruffs with Q and plays a third heart. If, instead, you draw a second trump, you lose when East is 3514.

I've held off on this intentionally.

 

I think its very likely RHO has shortness somewhere. I played as suggested here (A and AK) and went down when RHO was in fact 3=5=1=4. Lose 12? Lose 5? No, win 3 when the other declarer in the same contract went off 2 lol.

 

A winning play at the table is simply to draw trump and finesse the diamond. Curiously Fluffy's suggestion of ruffing with a high spade actually leads to an overtrick since you can establish a trump entry to hand without releasing the club A.

 

So I simply don't know if there is a sure tricks line when RHO has a singleton diamond or singleton spade <_<

 

Please feel free to pass this around the net. I'd like to get some more opinions.

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Dealer: North
Vul: GA
Scoring: IMP
AK9x
[space]
AKJ983
T63
JT852
7632
T5
AJ
1D - (1H) - 1S - (3H);

4H - (5H) - 5S - AP

Lead is the 5. PTP.

I like Fluffy's line but like wclass, I slightly prefer to tackle without first drawing a round of . I think this loses when an opponent has two singletons but caters for 4-1 splits when Q is singleton or doubleton:

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