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Pick a lead - J9 KJ952 K85 Q86


WesleyC

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Interesting to see such a balanced response set.

 

On the board:

 

Diamond lead sets up our partner's diamonds for +100.

Spade lead doesn't give anything away for +50.

Heart lead hits Qx in dummy for a quick -420.

 

I led a heart but in hindsight, I prefer either a diamond (or even a spade). I think its the extra length that makes a heart so dangerous. Even if a heart lead DOES hit partner's honour, we might not be cashing any winners there. And if declarer/dummy have the AQh and a doubleton between them, then leading a heart blows our trick there.

 

A diamond has more to gain (an increased chance to set up multiple tricks) and less to lose (even if declarer has all the diamonds we will often still score our K).

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I couldn't decide between club and heart, what does club blow up?.

 

 

I though club was less likelly to blow a trick than a diamond. Because declarer is 5332 or 6322, chances of doubleton diamond are around 40-45%.

Because the Queen is a slower trick than the King. It may not matter in NT where the trick will often come back to you, but in a suit contract the slower trick has more chances to be ruffed before you take it.

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