The grand old question...

[Mbodell]

Regional fast pairs with the field strength fairly mediocre but high variance (deal rotated).

 

[hv=d=n&v=n&n=sakj4hkqj2da74ca3&s=sq8hat86dqtckt954]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

Through a wrong sided relay auction South will be declaring (opponents silent and nothing known about N except 16+ and where N places the final contract opposite S's hand) and if it matters opponents know S shape and, that S has one of the top 2 in ♣ and ♥ with 3 controls, and that S has the pointy Q but not the round Q and that S lacks the ♣J (so once the dummy hits they know the location of every HCP except the ♦J).

 

Q1: Do you want to be in 6♥ or 7♥?

 

Q2: What is the best line in 7♥ on the lead of the ♥3?

 

Q3: What is the best line in 6♥ on the lead of the ♥3?

 

Q4: Estimate the MP for -anything, +980, +1010, +1510.

[gnasher]

22 + 11 = 33, so I expect the field to be in slam.

 

If 13 tricks are makeable, 6♥ beats the pairs in 6NT, but loses to the pairs in 7♥. 7♥ beats everyone who's in 6♥ or 6NT. Since 13 tricks are likely, I'd like to be in 7♥.

 

In eitehr contract, I'd play two top clubs, three top spades throwing a diamond, ♦A, diamond ruff, club ruff, diamond ruff, high crossruff. If RHO has a doubleton spade and ruffs the third round, I overruff and try to ruff the clubs good. If RHO turns out to be 2-4 in the blacks, I bid only 6♥.

[Mbodell]

Not many takers here but I ended up choosing 7♥ and partner played it well to make. FWIW, gnasers line goes down on the actual hand layout (3rd round ♠ is ruffed behind). So, I think, the answers are:

 

A1: 7♥, I think, although A4 makes me think twice.

 

A2: Win the ♥ as cheaply as possible in hand (assuming both follow - which they do), cash 2 ♣, and ruff one high. If clubs are 3-3 pull trump and claim (overtaking). If clubs are 4-2 then cross back to hand with the ♠Q and then ruff another club high. Now pull trump (overtaking) and cash winners.

 

The full hand at the table was:

[hv=d=n&v=n&n=sakj4hkqj2da74ca3&w=s82h753dkj8632cq8&e=st9653h94d95cj762&s=sq7hat86dqtckt954]399|300|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

A3: I think it is the same.

 

A4: -something 0%, +980 43%, +1010 90%, 1510 100%.

[eagle_one]

7♥.

 

Lines as given.

[gnasher]

A2: Win the ♥ as cheaply as possible in hand (assuming both follow - which they do), cash 2 ♣, and ruff one high. If clubs are 3-3 pull trump and claim (overtaking). If clubs are 4-2 then cross back to hand with the ♠Q and then ruff another club high. Now pull trump (overtaking) and cash winners.

Yes, that it better. I lose most of the time that spades are 5-2 - say 25%; you lose only when trumps are 4-1 and clubs 4-2 - less than 15% a priori, and probably about half that given the trump lead.

[JavaBean]

A2:  Win the ♥ as cheaply as possible in hand (assuming both follow - which they do), cash 2 ♣, and ruff one high.  If clubs are 3-3 pull trump and claim (overtaking).  If clubs are 4-2 then cross back to hand with the ♠Q and then ruff another club high.  Now pull trump (overtaking) and cash winners.

Actually I don't think you want to overtake. At that point the trumps in your hand will be ♥A86 (assuming the 9 forced your ten at t1). If you overtake and find East with an original ♥9754, you cross back to dummy with ♦A for a trump coup with spades to pick up the ♥7 (abandoning the clubs you worked so hard to set up!), but if he ruffs the third spade (making him 2434 and West 5152) you'll find yourself with a diamond loser left.

 

If you don't overtake, then either trump are 3-2 and you can ruff a spade high to hand, draw trump, and use the long spade to pitch your diamond loser; OR you find East with the same four trumps. Now you play the same trump coup, but with ♦A still intact, you can get to the fourth spade winner if he ruffs the third one.

 

Both lines fail to West holding four trumps, of course.

[rhm]

A2:  Win the ♥ as cheaply as possible in hand (assuming both follow - which they do), cash 2 ♣, and ruff one high.  If clubs are 3-3 pull trump and claim (overtaking).  If clubs are 4-2 then cross back to hand with the ♠Q and then ruff another club high.  Now pull trump (overtaking) and cash winners.

Actually I don't think you want to overtake. At that point the trumps in your hand will be ♥A86 (assuming the 9 forced your ten at t1). If you overtake and find East with an original ♥9754, you cross back to dummy with ♦A for a trump coup with spades to pick up the ♥7 (abandoning the clubs you worked so hard to set up!), but if he ruffs the third spade (making him 2434 and West 5152) you'll find yourself with a diamond loser left.

 

If you don't overtake, then either trump are 3-2 and you can ruff a spade high to hand, draw trump, and use the long spade to pitch your diamond loser; OR you find East with the same four trumps. Now you play the same trump coup, but with ♦A still intact, you can get to the fourth spade winner if he ruffs the third one.

 

Both lines fail to West holding four trumps, of course.

Which only proves that it is fallacy to win the first ♥ cheaply.

Win the first ♥ with an honor in dummy.

Now you will always end up in the South hand after two ♣ ruffs and can still play for the trump coup if RHO has 4 ♥

 

Rainer Herrmann

[gnasher]

Rainer, I think your line is equivalent to playing low on the first heart and then overtaking.

 

Mbodell, JavaBean and rhm will all be in this position:

[hv=d=n&v=n&n=sakjhda74c&s=s8ht8dqtct]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

JavaBean will be in the North hand; the others will be in South. There's no benefit to being in North - if trumps break 1=4, we're all going to play a spade next.

 

However, if I'm going to play a trump coup I'd prefer to be in this position:

[hv=d=n&v=n&n=sakjhda74c&s=s8ht8dqtct]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

with the lead in North. That avoids suffering a spade ruff if RHO was 3442 and threw spades on the clubs

 

So, an alternative line is: win the heart in hand, ruff a club, if RHO throws a spade play two rounds of spades ending in hand, ruff another club, and cash a top trump. If trumps break I can cross with a spade ruff in compete safety; if they don't, I'm poised to play the trump coup.

 

I lose if the opponents are something like 5224=2362, but gain if they're 4144=3442. I'd guess that that's slightly better a priori, but not in real life, because people don't lead singleton trumps much.

[rhm]

Rainer, I think your line is equivalent to playing low on the first heart and then overtaking.

 

Mbodell, JavaBean and rhm will all be in this position:

<!-- NORTHSOUTH begin --><table border=1> <tr> <td> <table> <tr> <td>Dealer:</td> <td> North </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vul:</td> <td> None </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Scoring:</td> <td> MP </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td> <table border='1'> <tr> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td> AKJ </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td>  </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> A74 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td>  </td> </tr> </table> </th> </tr> <tr> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td> 8 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td> T8 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> QT </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td> T </td> </tr> </table> </th> </tr> </table> </td> <td>  </td> </tr> </table><!-- NORTHSOUTH end -->

JavaBean will be in the North hand; the others will be in South.  There's no benefit to being in North - if trumps break 1=4, we're all going to play a spade next.

 

However, if I'm going to play a trump coup I'd prefer to be in this position:

<!-- NORTHSOUTH begin --><table border=1> <tr> <td> <table> <tr> <td>Dealer:</td> <td> North </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vul:</td> <td> None </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Scoring:</td> <td> MP </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td> <table border='1'> <tr> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td> AK </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td>  </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> A74 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td>  </td> </tr> </table> </th> </tr> <tr> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td>  </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td> T8 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> QT </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td> T </td> </tr> </table> </th> </tr> </table> </td> <td>  </td> </tr> </table><!-- NORTHSOUTH end -->

with the lead in North.  That avoids suffering a spade ruff if RHO was 3442 and threw spades on the clubs

 

So, an alternative line is: win the heart in hand, ruff a club, if RHO throws a spade play two rounds of spades ending in hand, ruff another club, and cash a top trump.  If trumps break I can cross with a spade ruff in compete safety; if they don't, I'm poised to play the trump coup.

 

I lose if the opponents are something like 5224=2362, but gain if they're 4144=3442.  I'd guess that that's slightly better a priori, but not in real life, because people don't lead singleton trumps much.

I agree that it is better to play 2 ♠ immediately if clubs do not break and you will not overtake in trumps.

 

There are differences between the suggested lines of play, though not earth shattering ones.

For example if RHO has the singleton ♥ 9 winning the first trick in dummy wins.

If you intent to overtake a trump honor it can never be right to win the trump lead cheaply in hand.

It must be better to win with an honor in dummy.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[ArtK78]

While it seems right to be in 7♥ based on the liklihood of making, the actual matchpoint results show that it is right to be in 6♥. The chances of 7♥ failing do not justify the small matchpoint gain in bidding the grand.

 

This is often the case when the combined HCPs of the two hands are in the "small slam" range and both hands are relatively balanced. Very few pairs bid grand slams under those conditions.