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5D or 3NT?


cnszsun

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i'm not bidding 3 no, they're leading through partner's hoped for spade stopper. If he has a good spade stop then his diamonds must be terrible! QJx with Axxxxx I guess could be described as a minimum but even with that hand 5 will be OK. As opposed to that we have Kx of spades or xx or diamonds with no ace (admittedly unlikely).
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[hv=d=n&v=n&s=sxxxhakqxdkqxcakx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

2-ps-2N-ps

3-ps-??

 

2=weak 2

3=min,no short suit[/hv]

5; You have 11 tricks in 6, 3, & 2. Partner is a favorite to have only 2 as 2362 and 2263 combined should be more probable than 3262. Perhaps my view is colored by my expectation after 2NT that he has no outside K or A so I do not expect Jxx Qx JT9xxx Qx or similar.

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Partner denied a singleton so I am bidding 3NT and expecting spades 4-4. They can cash four spades and we get the rest. If we don't get the rest when spades are 4-4, then we were not going to make 5D either. Also, they might not lead spades.

Why do we expect spades to be 4-4?

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If he has a good spade stop then his diamonds must be terrible! QJx with Axxxxx ....
I think we could tell that simply by looking at our own diamond holding!! :)

 

5; You have 11 tricks in 6, 3, & 2.
Maybe, but then again, they may be able to cash 3 spades first.

 

Partner denied a singleton so I am bidding 3NT and expecting spades 4-4.  They can cash four spades and we get the rest.  If we don't get the rest when spades are 4-4, then we were not going to make 5D either. Also, they might not lead spades.

Why do we expect spades to be 4-4?

Wishful thinking?

 

I think this is the wrong way to approach the problem. If spades are 4-4, 5D will make whenever 3N does, for the same score at IMP's, so our concern really should be what happens when spades are not 4-4. Ok, if diamonds are 4-0, and partner has the club Q and the diamond Ace, we would have 9 tricks in NT and 5D will go down, however, this is too specific to worry about, imo.

 

If a spade is not led (against either contract), both 3N and 5D will again likely make, regardless of how spades break, so this isn't a consideration either.

 

However, 5D gains when partner holds two small spades, spades are not 4-4 and a spade IS led.

 

This leads me to choose 5D over 3N.

 

jmoo.

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Obviously if partner has a doubleton spade we would all bid 5D (I hope!). The reason to think about playing 3N is the times that partner has three spades and you can lose the first 3 whereas you will make 3N usually.

Yeah, but a doubleton spade seems just so much more likely than three of them.

Agreed, not saying I would bid 3N, I just thought it was LOL that the discussion about bidding 3N vs 5D all assumed partner had a doubleton spade.

 

I think bidding 3S would be kind of sexy to deflect the spade lead against 5D though.

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I think bidding 3S would be kind of sexy to deflect the spade lead against 5D though.

3 is natural here, isn't it? If partner raises and you go back to 5, everyone will know 3 was a psyche. And if he doesn't raise you don't mind a spade lead anyway.

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