Now the tough part.

[OleBerg]

You might recognize the hand. :)

 

[hv=d=s&v=e&s=sxhj109xxxdckjxxxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

4♥ - (4♠) - 5♥ - (X)

 P  - (6♦) -  P  - (6♠)

 ?

 

You are 100% certain that X is lightner. Do you?

[Fluffy]

oh my god, where is our second trick?, its either lightner or 7♥, but west's bidding looks so confident.

 

I'll get my cheap save thanks, will lightner the nest round.

[pooltuna]

Why wouldn't you? You don't need a high percentage of success to warrant it.

[rd6789]

Why wouldn't you?

 

teammates are rarely amused by a XX'ed vul slam in the out column :)

[gnasher]

Assuming that they're in 6♠ undoubled at the other table:

 

If we pass and they make when they would have gone down after a double, that costs 1430 + 200 = 1630 = 17 IMPs.

If we double, they redouble, and it makes, that costs 6 x 60 + 50 = 410 = 9 IMPs

If we double, they pass, and it makes, that costs 6 x 30 + 50 = 230 = 6 IMPs

 

If there were no other risks, and we thought they'd always redouble when it was making, double would need to work just over 1/3 of the time to show a profit. If we thought they'd never redouble, we'd need it to work just over 1/4 of the time.

Edited September 6, 2009 by gnasher

[ceeb]

... double would need to just over 1/3 of the time to show a profit.  If we thought they'd never redouble, we'd need it to work just over 1/4 of the time.

That's good enough to persuade me to double.

 

Does the lead even matter? Probably (notwithstanding Fluffy's reasonable idea) it does, if we take the mere fact that the problem has been posed as a clue. But that aside I would expect 6♠ probably down with or without a double. The bidding suggests that LHO has two non-solid suits and RHO hasn't much in spades (double of 5♥), so partner may have ♠Qxx and a ♦ holding sufficient to make the suit unestablishable.

[Codo]

Someone really fears a XX after this auction?

 

I may fear 6 NT, but not a XX and I will double.

[Phil]

Assuming that they're in 6♠ undoubled at the other table:

 

If we pass and they make when they would have gone down after a double, that costs 1430 + 200 = 1630 = 17 IMPs.

If we double, they redouble, and it makes, that costs 6 x 60 + 50 = 410 = 9 IMPs

If we double, they pass, and it makes, that costs 6 x 30 + 50 = 230 = 6 IMPs

 

If there were no other risks, and we thought they'd always redouble when it was making, double would need to just over 1/3 of the time to show a profit. If we thought they'd never redouble, we'd need it to work just over 1/4 of the time.

I agree, although I've never crunched the numbers like this.

 

I had a hand like this in Las Vegas with Gnome. I doubled and have up 1210. Strangely enough we had a very cheap sac.

 

I polled a few top players and the response was go ahead and double, even if you can't see the 2nd trick.

[billw55]

Well if they redouble, I can always change my mind and bid 7♥. So yes, I double for the ♦ lead.

[benlessard]

I would double especially since i have a hard time with slow pass "lightner".