Obvious choice?

[bridgeboy]

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=sxxhaqxdaqjcq10xxx&s=skxxhj1098xxd10xcak]133|200|Scoring: IMP

Uninterfered, South arrives in 4H. How do you play on a 2 of D lead?

Do your choice change if you think your LHO do not underlead Kings?[/hv]

[hrothgar]

I prefer line B

[luke warm]

i voted b also...

[Free]

Line B is quite nice, but you still need ♥K onside and ♣ 3-3.

 

I take my chances with line A!

[hrothgar]

Line B is quite nice, but you still need ♥K onside and ♣ 3-3.

 

I take my chances with line A!

Actually, I think that you are playing for:

 

Stiff King of Hearts OR

3-3 Clubs OR

4-4 clubs and the hand with short clubs holds Kx in Hearts

 

Not especially attractive, I admit, however, the Diamond lead has me concerned.

 

Please note: Its very possible that the bidding history might impact the choice of lead, and through this best line.

 

Also, the calibe of the opponents is also an important consider. If I can trust them to "Cover and honor with an honor", line B becomes much more attractive.

[luke warm]

the right play is probably not line b else it wouldn't be here lol... i honestly don't think i'd consider another line at the table.. take ♦A, unblock clubs, ♥ to the A, play ♣Q tossing a diamond or overruffing if possible... i only see 3 losers, but i might have blinders on

[bridgeboy]

Whole bidding was:

 

1H 2C

2H 3H

4H

 

As for Opponents, they are competent players, though not great experts but definately not your routine LOLs... :blink:

[1eyedjack]

Whole bidding was:

 

1H 2C

2H 3H

4H

 

As for Opponents, they are competent players, though not great experts but definately not your routine LOLs... :blink:

They must be worried about pointy suit losers going away on Clubs after this auction, increasing the attractiveness of a pointy suit lead. It certainly seems to be attractive to lead a ♦ away from the King (even if they would normally be reticent).

[mishovnbg]

A. When I can't squeese I finesse :unsure: . I never give up 2X50% for 36%...

Misho

[Fluffy]

Line A, you aren´t gonna explain how you wen´t 1 off when it is onside. (also you aren´t gonna explain when ♦ 1-7, but bidding makes it hard).

[inquiry]

Line A....

 

If West has never underlead a king in his life, and never will underlead one, and only with this very harsh requirement, I would then try line B.

 

Ben

[whereagles]

I finesse the diamond. West has the king.

[bridgeboy]

After a few days of poll, I guessed the general choice between the 2 lines are not that far off. Here's the full hand:[hv=n=sxxhaqxdaqjcq10xxx&w=saxxxhxd9xxxxcxxx&e=sqjxxhkxxdkxxcjxx&s=skxxhj1098xxd10xcak]399|300|[/hv]

 

Hence, line B will work... Needless to say, I took line A and failed. Most 'resulted' the hand and said they will opt for the other line. (At the table I thought choice was not even close: 2 finesses vs 3-3 break) No way to argue with success though :lol:

 

Anyway, I was hoping there is a more detailed calculation on the chances of line B (Apart from 3-3 break, still Kx or singleton K H offside or 4 or more clubs with single trump) Don't think it will improve choices much though..

 

P.S: At other table, club lead.. so no play. 13 imps away. (Not sure what bidding was, probably forcing 1nt instead of 2C )

[luke warm]

do you really need 3/3 clubs for line b to work? what about 4/2 with clubs to the left of the A/K? i don't know the odds, just asking

[Flame]

At the table I thought choice was not even close: 2 finesses vs 3-3 break)

Anyway, I was hoping there is a more detailed calculation on the chances of line B (Apart from 3-3 break, still Kx or singleton K H offside or 4 or more clubs with single trump) Don't think it will improve choices much though..

Line B isnt that bad, its far better then 3-3 club.

if clubs are 2-4 you are making it if one of the 2 suits (spade and heart) works, this mean either a spade finnese or a Kx or K sgl heart with the doublton club.

even when clubs are 5-1 you can still make if the both spade and heart finneses works or when the sgl club is with KX or sgl trump.

To compare those lines,both lines will make if one of the spade/heart works (heart breaks for line A is finnese working while for line B its K sgl or Kx with the short club), and each line add something else to this , line A adds a diamond finnese while line B adds a 3-3 .

I think when someone leads a small diamond a finnese is better then 50% (especially after this bidding which calls for aggresive lead) and better then line B.

But if like in your question i think the diamond finnese is not likely to work i will choose line B.

A problem not discussed is not being able to ruff a spade in dummy when you need to, because they take your trumps out.

Both lines are good, I estimate line A to work on more then 90% and line B on more then 70%

[Flame]

Also not mentioned before line B makes when LHO has

 

A????

Kxx

???

Jx

[1eyedjack]

Line B isnt that bad, its far better then 3-3 club.

if clubs are 2-4 you are making it if one of the 2 finneses (spade and heart) works, or ...

I thought you weren't planning to take the H finesse. Leading the J to tempt the cover when you are committed to rising with the Ace is not quite the same thing.

[1eyedjack]

Line B isnt that bad, its far better then 3-3 club.

if clubs are 2-4 you are making it if one of the 2 finneses (spade and heart) works, or ...

I thought you weren't planning to take the H finesse. Leading the J to tempt the cover when you are committed to rising with the Ace is not quite the same thing.

Cancel that. It is a practice finesse.

[Flame]

Yes i wrote a mistake and then i changed it but forgot to change in one place.

The one of 2 finneses is only when clubs are 5-1, if clubs arent 5-1 when u have a finnese (spade) + 3-3 club, + 4-2 clubs and Kx heart or K heart.

And you can add the example i gave on the next post. i estimated this to be around 70%.

[Trpltrbl]

B.

Even if ♣ don't break 3-3, maybe the short ♣had Kx of trump or maybe only 1 trump, Ace of ♠ can still be onside. Think line B offers more( better ) possibilities.

 

Mike :D

[EarlPurple]

Line A seems to require one of 3 finesses and is thus approximately 87.5%.

 

Line B appears to make whenever:

 

♠A onside (50%)

clubs are 3-3 (36% of remaining 50% making 18% - 68% so far)

 

♥K drops singleton (12.5% of the remaining 32%, which makes 4% total - 72% so far)

 

clubs are 4-2 but with shortage singleton heart or HK doubleton.

(Difficult to calculate this one)

 

clubs 4-2 with CJ falling, and you can overruff East and lead a diamond, with West holding both ♦K and ♠A and either no more trumps or just the king (so he can't reach partner). Thus something like:

 

♠Axx ♥Kx ♦Kxxx ♣9xxx [] ♠ QJxxx ♥xx ♦xxxx ♣Jx

 

So you won the ♦A, unblocked clubs and led ♥J to ♥A (West not covering), then led ♣Q, East ruffs, you overruff and lead a diamond. West might cash his ♥K but then must lead a diamond to put you back in dummy or a spade away from his ace.

[1eyedjack]

Line A seems to require one of 3 finesses and is thus approximately 87.5%.

I am not sure that the conclusion follows from the premise.

 

If the person on lead lacks the ♠A then he might be more inclined to lead ♠ than if he holds it. His failure to lead ♠ increases the likelihood of ♠A sitting over the ♠K.

 

If the person on lead lacks the ♦K then he might be more inclined to lead ♦ than if he holds it. His decision to lead ♦ increases the likelihood of the ♦K sitting over the ♦A.

 

Don't ask me to quantify this effect, but I doubt that the effect is trivial.

[EarlPurple]

West may well lead away from ♦K. If North has shown a decent club suit then bid to game, the defence may not have time to wait quietly for a diamond trick, and lead them can be essential. And in that situation, some players may also have led ♠A.