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Bid or Not?


phil_20686

  

44 members have voted

  1. 1. Bid or Not?

    • Pass
      25
    • 4S
      15
    • 4S only at favourable
      4


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4S is simply a beginner bid.

I'm pretty sure this basically isnt true.

 

Does it not feel to you guys that 4h is almost certainly cold? There are 25 HCP or so between teh two hands still to bid, given that most experts open at the one level with 12 HCP even in very aggressive hands. It feels to me that 4h is cold maybe 9/10 times? Is this too optimistic?

 

As for being raised. I felt that partner is quite unlikely to raise me without 3 trumps, in which case this hand has similar playing strength to say

 

AKxxxx

x

Qxxx

xx

 

I'm pretty sure most ppl would bid 4s with this hand? Besides, surely partner will be relatively conservative here when he has heart length? If i play in 5s-1 then this might still be cheap vs 4h, and at worst i lose 5 playing imps. Of course this is a disaster playing MP, and this was the principle worry, and going -1 vs -1 of course. It feels like whenever the HCP divide evenly between the two hands bidding wins. Whenever partner is weaker and has a few spades bidding probably wins. When partner is stronger hand has spades there is danger, but 15 HCP outside of hearts might well vive slam decent play?

 

Axx

xxxx

AJx

AQx

 

or

 

Axx

xxxx

KJx

AKx

 

7 spades 2d 1d ruff and just needs club finess. What are you expexting partner to raise to the 5 level on here? Surely no one is driving slam here on less than 15?

 

Am i being too conservative on what you should raise to slam on?

 

In short, it feels to me like a phantom is fairly unlikely, and that when partner raises to slam this hand actually has quite a lot of playing strength with its 7-4 distribution. Further, when partner raises it seems like this is a far bigger worry at MP than imps, when -1 vs-1 is unlikely to be a worry, since partner is fairly unlikely to be able to make a t/o double.

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Bidding 4S is one VERY HUGE position to take. This is simply not the hand partner is going to expect, nor is it even close to what you should hold. In the balancing position this is a different issue, directly this is placing the family jewels on the train tracks! And not only yours, partners' as well.

 

If you are looking for a newspaper hand bid 4S, the genius bid. I bet we see your name in the obits!

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4S is simply a beginner bid. Partner is rarely going to pass if we bid 4S. Hes favorite to have enough values to go on.

 

Usually when a bid show 5 to 20 pts and isnt forcing, its a bad bid.

Mark me down as a beginner.

Not as a Dean? :lol:

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Obvious pass. It is not that I don't want to bid 4S, I do, however I am concerned that partner will think I actually had my bid, when i have nothing like a 4S bid.

I totally agree with Ben Lessard.

 

Phil, I would drive to 7 opposite a 4S bid if I held -

Axx

xxxx

AJx

AQx

 

As I think most players would.

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Obvious pass. It is not that I don't want to bid 4S, I do, however I am concerned that partner will think I actually had my bid, when i have nothing like a 4S bid.

I totally agree with Ben Lessard.

 

Phil, I would drive to 7 opposite a 4S bid if I held -

Axx

xxxx

AJx

AQx

 

As I think most players would.

Sure.

 

If partner holds:

 

KQJ10xxx

x

Kxx

Kx

 

He is simply a silly overbidder.

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Apart from the risks already mentioned, if we bid 4 there's a fair chance of losing 850 in 5x.  Or are we going to bid 5 too?

There's also a fair chance of +200 when passing nets us -650.

 

TBH surprised anyone good would pass. (not surprised most bad players pass though, ZOMG 5 HCP!)

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Apart from the risks already mentioned, if we bid 4 there's a fair chance of losing 850 in 5x.  Or are we going to bid 5 too?

There's also a fair chance of +200 when passing nets us -650.

 

TBH surprised anyone good would pass. (not surprised most bad players pass though, ZOMG 5 HCP!)

I haven't actually said I'd pass - I was just pointing out a factor than no one had mentioned, and which I think is more important than the ones that had been mentioned.

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