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Play 3NT


robl

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[hv=d=s&v=n&n=sa5h643daq4caj963&s=sqj32hq87dkj2ck54]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

Greetings!

 

South became the declarer after 1-2; 2NT-3NT (opps silent). How would you play the contract after the lead of A and a discouraging T from east and then 9 (attitude). Opps leads 1-3-5 (no A/K = asks for count/unblock available).

 

/Robert

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I think you need to make sure our RHO doesn't get a trick. I suspect LHO has AKJxx from , so he won't have much else (no 2 overcall).

 

Take A and play J, let it run if RHO doesn't cover. Hope the 10 falls or 10 is on our left. Quite standard "danger hand problem" imo. Perhaps K and A (ending up in dummy) might be slightly better.

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3NT appears the normal contract, but would you have gotten there if you opened 1 and next hand overcalled 1. If the answer is no, you have to play all out to make. If the answer is yes, you may have a slight initial advantage because you are playing it from the "right-side". A lead through your hand if your partner was declearer would turn out badly (rather or not WEST overcalled.

 

It appears that WEST has AKJ(x), and didn't bid at non-vul at matchpoints, but your opening bid made it hard for him to bid if he had AKJxx for instance. I would also think he doesn't have the K. So I need to decide if playing to make, or playing to limit the number of negative tricks is in my best interest (since the field will be in 3NT, making is not the issue.. taking more tricks than them, even if it is down one versus down two, is). What can you lose? You can lose 4/5, 1 and 1 for down two+ when EAST has four to the QT.

 

At imps you would just hook in (ok, you might try the despiration Ace just in case there was stiff King with EAST, and eventually thow WEST with the fourth round of , but that is pie in the sky.... West would need T9xxxx AKJ xx xx or the like for that to work.)

 

At matchpoint you have additional options. You can try for just eight tricks a couple of ways. You can play low from dummy, when EAST jumps the K and leads a (and 4-3), you have 8 tricks (3, 2, 3 for down one). If east ducks the , then you can revert to playing on of course. But this line gives up on making.

 

You can alternatively make an avoidance play in clubs for possible down one if clubs are splitting 3-2. There are two ways you can try this. You can win the in dummy, and lead a low and if EASt "carelessly" plays low from QT2 you can duck. Or you can lead the J and if east ducks, let it run, and if he covers win it and lead another club, jump up with the ace. This line turns out badly if clubs are not behaving.

 

But here is the issue. If 4-3, everyone makes if hook is on and behaving nice. Everyone down if hook is off. If are 5-2, everyone from the other side is down two played from other side if hook is off, and down one if it is on assuming a lead.

 

So first, if you take the club hook and it wins and hearts are 4-3, you tie the field with 9 tricks. If you take club hook and it wins and clubs behave, and hearts are 5-2, you likely beat the field playing 3NT from the other side of the table. If hearts are 4-3 or 5-2 and you take the club hook, and it loses, and clubs behave you tie the field again. So club hook looks like field tie or better.

 

So, it seems to me that the normal hook is the right play. You gain against the field if the hook wins and WEST has five 's or you break even. I guess I will take those odds. U could try A, low (hoping for 4-1 and 5-2) for 8 tricks, but that is a stretch.

 

Ben

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Not sure on a percentage line which is best. Normal club play gives you about 40% chance of nine tricks. Running the jack is worse, just not sure how much worse. But if it gives you greater than a 20% chance of nine tricks and the spade finesse is 50% then it is the right percentage line. The downside is you are playing against the room and LHO with AKJxx and K might well have overcalled, so I the spade finesse is unlikely to be 50%, but that does depend on the oppo. Put me down for the normal play in clubs. At IMPS you might try the Q first you never know they might cover.
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It appears that WEST has AKJ(x), and didn't bid at non-vul at matchpoints, but your opening bid made it hard for him to bid if he had AKJxx for instance.

N-S played acol, I held the east hand...

 

/Robert

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[hv=n=sa5h643daq4caj963&w=st97hakj9d953cq72&e=sk864ht52dt876ct8&s=sqj32hq87dkj2ck54]399|300|[/hv]

 

This was the full hand. Declarer at our table ran the J in trick two and went one off for a score of 8% to NS. A result of playing too much IMPs perhaps...

 

/Robert

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