kgr Posted July 29, 2009 Report Share Posted July 29, 2009 Play for 5 tricks with enough entries:AJTxxxvsxxx I East has:KQxKQxx..then never 5 tricks, so not included in comparison 1)finesse twice looses 2 tricks if E has:KQ 2)A followed by J looses if W has:KQxKQxx KQ with E versus KQx or KQxx with W => 1 is better 3)1 finesse followed by A looses if E has:KQ KQ with E versus K or Q single with E. => 1 is better => With suitplay (I would be surprised if I calcuated this correctly):1) 76% for 5 tricks2) 66% for 5 tricks3) 72% for 5 tricks ...And now the question:Is 72% coorect for 3? I think it is a priori correct, but is it still correct after first finesse looses to West? Or is this lower then 72% because of restricted choice? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pooltuna Posted July 29, 2009 Report Share Posted July 29, 2009 West East 2FIN 1FIN 0FINKQ32 - 5 5 4KQ3 2 5 5 4KQ2 3 5 5 4K32 Q 5 4 5Q32 K 5 4 5KQ 32 5 5 5K3 Q2 5 5 5K2 Q3 5 5 5Q3 K2 5 5 5Q2 K3 5 5 532 KQ 4 5 52 KQ3 4 4 43 KQ2 4 4 4Q K32 5 5 5K Q32 5 5 5- KQ32 4 4 4 As the chart shows taking 2 finesses is the normal and %age play for 5 tricks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wclass___ Posted July 29, 2009 Report Share Posted July 29, 2009 No restricted choise here, but i got 70,4% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skjaeran Posted July 29, 2009 Report Share Posted July 29, 2009 No restricted choise here, but i got 70,4% 76% is correct Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Tu Posted July 29, 2009 Report Share Posted July 29, 2009 76% is correct for 2 hooks.70.35% for hook followed by ace catering to KQ doubleton off.65.57% for ace first.a priori and only one 'o' in "loses"! :) Restricted choice is already factored into the equation when you calculate in this fashion, counting KQ at full value, stiff K off & stiff Q off at full value. The other way, you say RHO won the Q, you can count only stiff Qs, then half of the KQs. Either method gives the correct answer mathematically. *After* you lose one trick to east, and lead again and west follows low, a whole bunch of cases have been eliminated. Then it's only ~64.7% for the second hook to win. Higher than that if you want to calculate before leading toward dummy again (adding in cases where LHO follows with honor, or shows out). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted July 29, 2009 Report Share Posted July 29, 2009 Sorry, I am a bit lost, do these percentages mean that if you have only one entry, it is better to finese then play Ace than cash Ace first? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted July 29, 2009 Report Share Posted July 29, 2009 Sorry, I am a bit lost, do these percentages mean that if you have only one entry, it is better to finese then play Ace than cash Ace first? No. While there are 3 winning cases for the 1 finesse variation (HHx, HHxx) vs. 2 for the 0 finesse variation (Hxx), HHxx can't be picked up with only 1 finesse. And because a specific 2-2 is more likely than a specific 3-1, cashing Ace first is superior if you have only 1 entry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgr Posted July 29, 2009 Author Report Share Posted July 29, 2009 Sorry, I am a bit lost, do these percentages mean that if you have only one entry, it is better to finese then play Ace than cash Ace first? No. While there are 3 winning cases for the 1 finesse variation (HHx, HHxx) vs. 2 for the 0 finesse variation (Hxx), HHxx can't be picked up with only 1 finesse. And because a specific 2-2 is more likely than a specific 3-1, cashing Ace first is superior if you have only 1 entry. Is cashing Ace first not the same then finessing once, with only one entry.cashing Ace wins if East has singleton H, finessing once wins if East has singleton x. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted July 29, 2009 Report Share Posted July 29, 2009 oh lol sorry about it. well at least it was not in the a/e section. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wclass___ Posted July 29, 2009 Report Share Posted July 29, 2009 No restricted choise here, but i got 70,4% 76% is correct Did you read the question?! ...And now the question:Is 72% coorect for 3? I think it is a priori correct, but is it still correct after first finesse looses to West? Or is this lower then 72% because of restricted choice? Suitplay gives East KQxx 4.78 KQx 12.43 K 6.21 Q 6.21 =29.63 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skjaeran Posted July 30, 2009 Report Share Posted July 30, 2009 No restricted choise here, but i got 70,4% 76% is correct Did you read the question?! ...And now the question:Is 72% coorect for 3? I think it is a priori correct, but is it still correct after first finesse looses to West? Or is this lower then 72% because of restricted choice? Ahh, I overlooked that question indeed.:angry: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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