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Evil Matchpoints


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1nt and i dont think it is close.

 

passing is betting we can make 2s at these colors

I would bet heavily on that, who wouldn't? I thought the point of bidding 1N is because you might have a game and probably won't get 800.

 

edit: Also as far as I know 100 beats 90!

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1nt and i dont think it is close.

 

passing is betting we can make 2s at these colors

I would bet heavily on that, who wouldn't? I thought the point of bidding 1N is because you might have a game and probably won't get 800.

 

edit: Also as far as I know 100 beats 90!

Well yes, I was on my iphone and didn't want to tap out that there is some vigorish if we can make exactly 1NT and beat 1S exactly 1. I'm not sure how likely that is.

 

I think there is almost no chance of 800, that's us making 4. RHO purports to have an opening hand with at least 4-5 HCP outside of spades, depending on opening style. We're looking at AKx and the one offsuit partner is most likely to hold is hearts. If the minor suit honors are scattered then they will be making some tricks with them. In this scenario, the only way for me to get rid of my minor suit losers (at spades) is to throw them on partner's hearts, but if partner has a good heart suit, then we definitely need +300 because we will have at least 110 in hearts on.

 

Edit -- as for their prospects of avoiding 300 in 1x, again, for the analysis we should be assuming partner doesn't have QTxxx or so. If partner has the stiff spade, then they make 3 or 4 spade tricks (most likely 4 spade tricks) on power so need 2-3 tricks from the offsuits. If partner can cover 4 of my 5 minor suit spot cards then we are pretty close to 3NT (x, QTxx, AKxx, AQJx) with all the defensive strength in one hand, which isn't good for their chances.

 

So while I can see constructions where the tricks divide up such that passing 1x is optimal, I think we are aiming at a 1-total-trick wide window (and possibly specific divisions of the tricks within that window) if we do so. Since I like to think I bid them and play them better than the average field bear, I don't want to risk the entire board on passing right now.

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Edit -- as for their prospects of avoiding 300 in 1♠x, again, for the analysis we should be assuming partner doesn't have ♥QTxxx or so.

I dont see why you would assume partner has QTxxx of hearts. Partner having long hearts is far worse for the defense than anything else, giving him 5 hearts as the basis of your analysis for our offensive and defensive potential will bias your results a lot, and I don't see any real reason for that.

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Edit -- as for their prospects of avoiding 300 in 1♠x, again, for the analysis we should be assuming partner doesn't have ♥QTxxx or so.

I dont see why you would assume partner has QTxxx of hearts. Partner having long hearts is far worse for the defense than anything else, giving him 5 hearts as the basis of your analysis for our offensive and defensive potential will bias your results a lot, and I don't see any real reason for that.

I was assuming he does not have 5 hearts. We need him to not have 5 hearts (for obvious reasons), which means we need cover cards for the xxx, xx (or RHO has 6 tricks in spades), which means 3NT is often making.

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Edit -- as for their prospects of avoiding 300 in 1♠x, again, for the analysis we should be assuming partner doesn't have ♥QTxxx or so.

I dont see why you would assume partner has QTxxx of hearts. Partner having long hearts is far worse for the defense than anything else, giving him 5 hearts as the basis of your analysis for our offensive and defensive potential will bias your results a lot, and I don't see any real reason for that.

I was assuming he does not have 5 hearts. We need him to not have 5 hearts (for obvious reasons), which means we need cover cards for the xxx, xx (or RHO has 6 tricks in spades), which means 3NT is often making.

I misread, my bad. Stupid contractions!

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1nt and i dont think it is close.

 

passing is betting we can make 2s at these colors

I would bet heavily on that, who wouldn't? I thought the point of bidding 1N is because you might have a game and probably won't get 800.

 

edit: Also as far as I know 100 beats 90!

according the same metric it loses to 120

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I think everyone has the Vul. wrong...

 

We are V and They are NV

I don't think so

V vs NV.

Is that related to opener? or to 'us'? (I always thought to 'us', so here we are V and they are NV).

What is the concensus on BBF, seems like pretty basic.

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I think everyone has the Vul. wrong...

 

We are V and They are NV

I don't think so

V vs NV.

Is that related to opener? or to 'us'? (I always thought to 'us', so here we are V and they are NV).

What is the concensus on BBF, seems like pretty basic.

Yes V vs NV means we are vul.

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