4333 Hands

[Apollo81]

Even a one point downgrade is too much.

Agree, I think half a point is about right.

[TimG]

- North is 11-19

- South is semi-balanced with enough points to give the partnership a total between 20 and 30.

- 10,000 simulations each for North being 4333, 4432 and 5332.

 

Double dummy analysis suggested the average number of tricks when North's shape is 4333 is actually slightly HIGHER than when he holds 4432 or 5332.

A while back, I did something similar (without 5332 hands) and found that two factors where important when counting tricks at NT:

 

1) the more suits in which there is four-card length in at least one hand the more tricks; and

 

2) 3-2 and especially 2-2 holdings reduced the number of tricks.

 

If north is 4=4=3=2, it is better for south to be 3=3=4=3 than 4=3=3=3 because in the former case there are three suits with at least one four-card suit (♠, ♥, ♦) whereas in the latter case there are only two such suits (♠ and ♥).

 

It was also better to have 4=4=3=2 facing 3=3=3=4 than 3=3=4=3 -- a 3-3 and a 4-2 is better than a 4-3 and a 3-2. 2-2s are even worse than 3-2s.

 

So, it does not surprise me that 4333 might have a higher value than 4432 or 5332 when facing a semi-balanced hand -- no possible 2-2 suits.

 

I suspect strongly that if you give south a 4333 13 count and north 1) 4432 13 count or 2) 4333 13 count, on average the 4333+4432 combination will take more tricks at NT than the 4333+4333 combination.

[WesleyC]

I suspect strongly that if you give south a 4333 13 count and north 1) 4432 13 count or 2) 4333 13 count, on average the 4333+4432 combination will take more tricks at NT than the 4333+4333 combination.

I ran a quick simulation (10000 deals) of exactly the situation you suggest.

 

With 13 opposite 13 both 4-3-3-3 average (double dummy) tricks was 8.99.

With 13 (4333) opposite 13 (4432) the average total was 9.03.

 

So you're spot on.

[pooltuna]

What are the statistics for 4333 hands, and how much should I downgrade them over 1NT (13-15)?

 

Axxx AQx Qxx xxx

 

3NT

 

AJT Qxx Axx xxxx

 

2NT if invitational

 

xxx QJx ATx KTxx

 

pass

 

xxx Kxx AJxx Kxxx

 

Director!!! I have 14 cards [2NT invitational]

 

How would you treat these hands?

 

My partner thinks that even at IMPs, we should be downgrading these hands a good 2 points. I disagree, since I think we should be in any games that have a prayer. Something such as Kxx Jxx Kxxx AJx he suggests we should invite. What are your thoughts on this, and how much should we be downgrading here? Or has he just gone mad?

Don't downgrade! the game going point count total is better as a decision process than you are trying to figure out if you should be in game because you don't see your partner's half of the points or his distribution.