mtvesuvius Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 AKQTxxxxxxxxx (1♦) - P - (1♥) - 4♠(5♥) - P - (6♥) - All Pass NV vs V Your lead? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 Noone said a spade isn't cashing so I lead a top spade. If partner will give me count then I lead the appropriate card. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlall Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 yeah a club is really obvious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zheddh Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 Spade Ace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Codo Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 Club should be much better then spade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtvesuvius Posted July 16, 2009 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 Partner led a spade, which was ruffed, and when I won my ♥, it was a lost cause. I thought this was an obv ♣ lead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 why didn't partner raise? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lobowolf Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 I was kibbing this one, and I was going to post this hand, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the hog Posted July 17, 2009 Report Share Posted July 17, 2009 Noone said a spade isn't cashing so I lead a top spade. If partner will give me count then I lead the appropriate card. I agree. I think a c lead is masterminding after the fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted July 17, 2009 Report Share Posted July 17, 2009 on the forum I lead the club, otherwise no-way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 17, 2009 Report Share Posted July 17, 2009 yeah a club is really obvious. Were you kibitzing too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Codo Posted July 17, 2009 Report Share Posted July 17, 2009 yeah a club is really obvious. Were you kibitzing too? This is not necessary. Which second trick do you expect to make when you lead a spade? No second spade trick, this should be a lock. So you need partner to have a trick in another suit. Of course it is possible that your lead gives them the chances to discard their spade loser before you regain the lead, but this is less likely then the possibility that one of them has a spade void. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted July 17, 2009 Report Share Posted July 17, 2009 Of course it is possible that your lead gives them the chances to discard their spade loser before you regain the lead, but this is less likely then the possibility that one of them has a spade void. Those aren't the relevant probabilities. For the club lead to be right, you don't just need there to be a spade void: you also need the club lead to work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 17, 2009 Report Share Posted July 17, 2009 yeah a club is really obvious. Were you kibitzing too? This is not necessary. Which second trick do you expect to make when you lead a spade? No second spade trick, this should be a lock. So you need partner to have a trick in another suit. Of course it is possible that your lead gives them the chances to discard their spade loser before you regain the lead, but this is less likely then the possibility that one of them has a spade void. You play in a tough game if your opponents never bid a slam off two cashing tricks. Also after I take my spade trick I may have a good idea where we should go (or not passively) to get our second trick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlall Posted July 17, 2009 Report Share Posted July 17, 2009 yeah a club is really obvious. Were you kibitzing too? Don't be bitter about the fact that you will never be remotely close to being as good as me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 17, 2009 Report Share Posted July 17, 2009 Bitter isn't that the name of a beer? Is that what you were drinking when you were kibitzing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Codo Posted July 17, 2009 Report Share Posted July 17, 2009 Those aren't the relevant probabilities. For the club lead to be right, you don't just need there to be a spade void: you also need the club lead to work. ...because? When a club lead was wrong you can still have hopes that you can beat the contract. This is less certain if the spade lead fails. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted July 17, 2009 Report Share Posted July 17, 2009 Consider these three categories of deal:(1) Deals where a spade is cashing but will be discarded if we don't cash it, and we have another trick somewhere.(2) Deals where a spade isn't cashing, and a club lead works.(3) Deals where a spade isn't cashing, and a club lead doesn't work either. When you said "it is possible that your lead gives them the chances to discard their spade loser before you regain the lead, but this is less likely then the possibility that one of them has a spade void", you seemed to be comparing (1) with (2) + (3)whereas the relevant comparison is of (1) with (2) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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