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I was kibbing this one, and I was going to post this hand, too.
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yeah a club is really obvious.

Were you kibitzing too?

This is not necessary.

 

Which second trick do you expect to make when you lead a spade?

 

No second spade trick, this should be a lock.

 

So you need partner to have a trick in another suit.

 

Of course it is possible that your lead gives them the chances to discard their spade loser before you regain the lead, but this is less likely then the possibility that one of them has a spade void.

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Of course it is possible that your lead gives them the chances to discard their spade loser before you regain the lead, but this is less likely then the possibility that one of them has a spade void.

Those aren't the relevant probabilities. For the club lead to be right, you don't just need there to be a spade void: you also need the club lead to work.

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yeah a club is really obvious.

Were you kibitzing too?

This is not necessary.

 

Which second trick do you expect to make when you lead a spade?

 

No second spade trick, this should be a lock.

 

So you need partner to have a trick in another suit.

 

Of course it is possible that your lead gives them the chances to discard their spade loser before you regain the lead, but this is less likely then the possibility that one of them has a spade void.

You play in a tough game if your opponents never bid a slam off two cashing tricks.

 

Also after I take my spade trick I may have a good idea where we should go (or not passively) to get our second trick.

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Those aren't the relevant probabilities. For the club lead to be right, you don't just need there to be a spade void: you also need the club lead to work.

...because?

 

When a club lead was wrong you can still have hopes that you can beat the contract. This is less certain if the spade lead fails.

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Consider these three categories of deal:

(1) Deals where a spade is cashing but will be discarded if we don't cash it, and we have another trick somewhere.

(2) Deals where a spade isn't cashing, and a club lead works.

(3) Deals where a spade isn't cashing, and a club lead doesn't work either.

 

When you said "it is possible that your lead gives them the chances to discard their spade loser before you regain the lead, but this is less likely then the possibility that one of them has a spade void", you seemed to be comparing

  (1) with (2) + (3)

whereas the relevant comparison is of

  (1) with (2)

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