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Suit combination


Fluffy

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Lead low from dummy to exploit RHOs who put in the 9 from J9xx too often?

(playing you for AKtx plus guessing wrong next)

That's a good thought. I knew it involved a defensive error on some 4-1 break, but for some reason it just wouldn't come to me.

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If you have

 

Q873

 

AK102

 

And cash the ace and RHO puts the 9, restricted choice against an expert says 9 is not singleton (1/3 vs 2/3).

 

It looks right to play low from dummy so you can trust more RHO's 9, but when it appears, what are your chances now, I can't get any real %.

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Ive calculated that holding J9xx RHO neutral strategy is to put the 9, 1/3 of the time.

 

As declarer if you believe RHO will falsecard more than 33% and you hold AKTx you should play the Q at trick 2 (pay the stiff 9 protect against j9xx falsec) otherwise cash the K and protect against a stiff 9 and pay to the falsecard.

 

So the gain from playing low from dummy is 33% of j9xx and stiff T on the other side = slighlty less than 1%.

 

This is always a gain unless RHO never falsecard (wich is a bad strategy)

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