Cascade Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 ♠ KJ763 ♥ Tx ♦ x ♣ AJ762 -470/+100 (we need three trump tricks to beat it) 3♣ probably makes I gave south these cards and north the cards from the opening post. This means that EW have 25 HCP and bid P-2♠-P. Still, I gave east something of a normal weak two: 6+ spades or 5 spades in a 55 or 54 hand (but not 5 hearts on the side) and 6-11 HCP. That means west had at most 2 spades and I also restricted west to fewer than 6 hearts. Double dummy simulation results in 2♠ going down about 95% of the time and 3♣ making about 1% of the time. I know that double dummy has its flaws, but this hardly seems like "3♣ probably makes". How many of these had five-card spade suits? The frequency of those will increase the chance of 2♠ failing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 Excuse me? In your prior post you accidentally inserted the word "not", so what else could I say? LOL There is no accidental "not". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 ♠ KJ763 ♥ Tx ♦ x ♣ AJ762 -470/+100 (we need three trump tricks to beat it) 3♣ probably makes I gave south these cards and north the cards from the opening post. This means that EW have 25 HCP and bid P-2♠-P. Still, I gave east something of a normal weak two: 6+ spades or 5 spades in a 55 or 54 hand (but not 5 hearts on the side) and 6-11 HCP. That means west had at most 2 spades and I also restricted west to fewer than 6 hearts. Double dummy simulation results in 2♠ going down about 95% of the time and 3♣ making about 1% of the time. I know that double dummy has its flaws, but this hardly seems like "3♣ probably makes". How many of these had five-card spade suits? The frequency of those will increase the chance of 2♠ failing. A quick 100 deal sample shows 81 5-card spade suits and 19 6-card spade suits. 5 of the 81 and 2 of the 19 made 8 tricks in spades (double dummy). No deals resulted in 9 tricks in clubs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 ♠ KJ763 ♥ Tx ♦ x ♣ AJ762 -470/+100 (we need three trump tricks to beat it) 3♣ probably makes I gave south these cards and north the cards from the opening post. This means that EW have 25 HCP and bid P-2♠-P. Still, I gave east something of a normal weak two: 6+ spades or 5 spades in a 55 or 54 hand (but not 5 hearts on the side) and 6-11 HCP. That means west had at most 2 spades and I also restricted west to fewer than 6 hearts. Double dummy simulation results in 2♠ going down about 95% of the time and 3♣ making about 1% of the time. I know that double dummy has its flaws, but this hardly seems like "3♣ probably makes". How many of these had five-card spade suits? The frequency of those will increase the chance of 2♠ failing. A quick 100 deal sample shows 81 5-card spade suits and 19 6-card spade suits. 5 of the 81 and 2 of the 19 made 8 tricks in spades (double dummy). No deals resulted in 9 tricks in clubs. 1. I think a weak two with odds of 4:1 in favour of five-card suits is reasonably unlikely even given that we have a five spades. 2. Maybe my eyeball estimate was wrong. I was doing this in quiet moments while I was directing and probably rushed the last one. I might not have assumed the best lead was automatic. The best lead is probably a trump but a spade lead allows for some ruffs. And a non-heart lead allows for a heart loser to vanish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirate22 Posted July 15, 2009 Report Share Posted July 15, 2009 against weak 2's we play a system assuming all 2's d/h/s are weak if 2h or 2sp opened pard bids his best tolerance minor guareenteeing min 4 cards in other major---if single suited 5/6 cards in other major just bids 2s/3hts amd competing a x over majoris competing--if 2d opened weak we treat them as 1's x therefore is t/o going back to 2 either maj by opp 2n.t is for minors on the given hand i would bid 3 diamonds and its pards decision he knows i have a ht suit--------probably bids 4 hts no heroics and await developements obviously one is aware of vuln all round- if one should decide to pass pard can apply same tactics if you pass and pard says x thats for penalties--but if you 2/3/points one can take out-he would have used the system bids regards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benlessard Posted July 19, 2009 Report Share Posted July 19, 2009 At imps its a clear pass. At MP its borderline and i think double is ok because they wont X you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.