Fluffy Posted July 11, 2009 Report Share Posted July 11, 2009 ♠2♥9842♦AK754♣1083 Vul N-S, dealer east (pass)-pass-(2♠)-pass(pass)-??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted July 11, 2009 Report Share Posted July 11, 2009 if i don't, who will? Haven't had much success passing here, but this one is just about the bottom. I double. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
effervesce Posted July 12, 2009 Report Share Posted July 12, 2009 A queen more and I would reopen. But I pass with this hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kfay Posted July 12, 2009 Report Share Posted July 12, 2009 Must double Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 12, 2009 Report Share Posted July 12, 2009 Must double Otherwise we will miss game when partner has a balanced 14 count. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted July 12, 2009 Report Share Posted July 12, 2009 I double because I think the most likely hand for partner is a penalty pass, and it is probably one with good values so I think we will get a penalty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtvesuvius Posted July 12, 2009 Report Share Posted July 12, 2009 Thin, but yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted July 12, 2009 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2009 Thx for the replies, double was not the winner today, because it put a weak partner again into play, who made the wrong decision :/. ♠KJ9x♥AKxx♦-♣KJ9xx I think passing then bidding 4♥ is inconsistent, if you pass oyu have to pass the double, or maybe I am being biased. 4♥ down 1, 3 clubs makes, spades makes 5 or 6 tricks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 I double because I think the most likely hand for partner is a penalty pass, and it is probably one with good values so I think we will get a penalty. I think this will depend on how often the particular opponent raises and on what sort of hands and the style of their weak twos. Nevertheless I would think that "most likely" is what you would call an "overbid". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 Nevertheless I would think that "most likely" is what you would call an "overbid". Strongly disagree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 ♠2♥9842♦AK754♣1083 Vul N-S, dealer east (pass)-pass-(2♠)-pass(pass)-??? Pass Now I will read the posts and see why my wtp was wrong :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 Don't you think vulnerable against not that there will be a strong incentive for partner to bid 3NT with 13-14 balanced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 Don't you think vulnerable against not that there will be a strong incentive for partner to bid 3NT with 13-14 balanced. Opposite a passed partner? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 Don't you think vulnerable against not that there will be a strong incentive for partner to bid 3NT with 13-14 balanced. Maybe but all I said is I believe partner's most likely hand type is a penalty pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 Nevertheless I would think that "most likely" is what you would call an "overbid". Strongly disagree. I have been doing some simulations and partner normally has three or four spades without a clear pass. And this is after RHO raises with some hands with three trumps. Only passes with weakish hands with some 4-3-3-3 or 4-4-3-2 or maybe 5-3-3-2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 ... and some of the hands where partner has a penalty pass we are only getting 100 or the opponents can run to a safer haven. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 What is wrong with getting 100? It's nothing special, but it's certainly not an argument against doubling since it works better than passing on those hands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 What is wrong with getting 100? It's nothing special, but it's certainly not an argument against doubling since it works better than passing on those hands. Nothing except you need a lot of them to make up for the -470s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 All I'm saying is in that case your argument should have been "and some of the hands where partner has a penalty pass we are going -470" instead of "and some of the hands where partner has a penalty pass we are only getting 100". You made an argument in favor of doubling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 The first ten hands off my simulation with a bit of eyeballing. Take from it whatever you will ... ♠ A108xx ♥ KQx ♦ Jx ♣ xxx -470 (unless you don't pass with this) ♠ QJ98 ♥ AJ76 ♦ 86 ♣ AJ7 +100 if you pass -100/200/500 if you bid 4♥ (+140/-100 for 3♥) ♠ AQ108 ♥ QJx ♦ 9x ♣ Kxxx -470 or -100 or more if you bid 3♣ ♠ K108x ♥ AKx ♦ Q9xx ♣ Jx -470 (if this is a pass) -200 at least in 3NT, +110 in 3♦ ♠ AT976 ♥ KT ♦ 6 ♣ KJ964 -470 unless somehow you can get four trump tricks. Maybe make 3♣ ♠ A764 ♥ AKJx ♦ 1098 ♣ Jx 9 tricks in spades, 8 tricks in hearts ♠ 10973 ♥ AKx ♦ Qx ♣ AJxx 2♠ is down one and 3♣ is five tricks + however many trumps you can get -they are Qx opposite Kxxx ♠ K87x ♥ Ax ♦ JTx ♣ AQ9x maybe +300 (but are you really passing with this stack) maybe only +100 I think 3♣ will make ♠ KJ763 ♥ Tx ♦ x ♣ AJ762 -470/+100 (we need three trump tricks to beat it) 3♣ probably makes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 All I'm saying is in that case your argument should have been "and some of the hands where partner has a penalty pass we are going -470" instead of "and some of the hands where partner has a penalty pass we are only getting 100". You made an argument in favor of doubling. Incorrect it only means on the subset of hands where passing results in 50 and doubling results in 100 double is better. It does not logically follow that this argument is in favour of doubling on all hands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 Lol. And people say it's Americans who can't speak English. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 Excuse me? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 ♠ KJ763 ♥ Tx ♦ x ♣ AJ762 -470/+100 (we need three trump tricks to beat it) 3♣ probably makes I gave south these cards and north the cards from the opening post. This means that EW have 25 HCP and bid P-2♠-P. Still, I gave east something of a normal weak two: 6+ spades or 5 spades in a 55 or 54 hand (but not 5 hearts on the side) and 6-11 HCP. That means west had at most 2 spades and I also restricted west to fewer than 6 hearts. Double dummy simulation results in 2♠ going down about 95% of the time and 3♣ making about 1% of the time. I know that double dummy has its flaws, but this hardly seems like "3♣ probably makes". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted July 13, 2009 Report Share Posted July 13, 2009 Excuse me? In your prior post you accidentally inserted the word "not", so what else could I say? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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