Your Lead?

[Jlall]

AKQx xx Qx AKJxx.

 

White vs Red, partner starts:

 

P 2H X 6H

6S p p 7H

p p ?

 

If you double or pass, what's your lead?

[Cascade]

Someone else can lead ...

 

7♠

[655321]

♠A.

 

Partner is a passed hand W/R, and is quite likely to be void in hearts. If he has a six card spade suit, he could have opened 3♠ at the vulnerability. If partner has only 5 spades, LHO is likely to have at least one spade (otherwise RHO may not have opened 2♥). So I will play LHO for something like a 1570 shape where we need to cash our spade winner(s) immediately.

 

Whether or not I am confident enough about this reasoning to double 7♥ instead of bidding 7♠ is another story...

[Codo]

X ace (king) of clubs

 

Are we SURE that a pass of 7 HEart shows a void in hearts? I am not.

 

And for the lead: I guess it is much safer to lead a club as partner has sureyl long spades and the bidding sound like a spade void in dummy.

[Hanoi5]

X, ♣A

[655321]

Are we SURE that a pass of 7 HEart shows a void in hearts?  I am not.

Hard to tell sometimes whether people are joking or not...

 

But just in case that was a serious comment, the reasons for expecting partner to be void in hearts have nothing to do with his Pass over 7♥. Of course partner is marked with almost no high cards, and there is no question of forcing passes, etc, over 7♥.

 

RHO opened a weak 2 and LHO jumped to slam, R/W, missing AK in both black suits. LHO has a lot of red cards, very likely including all 5 hearts we don't know about. And if we need a further clue, partner has taken a save at the 6 level. He must have a lot of shape, and a void in their suit would make a 6♠ bid appear much more attractive than a singleton would.

 

But yes, nothing is certain, and it is not completely impossible for partner to have a heart.

[gnasher]

Partner's pass is forcing, inviting me to bid 7♠, and showing first-round heart control. A takeout double of 2♥ should include enough defence to guarantee defeating 7♥.

 

Even though it's hard to construct a layout where that's believable (in fact, I've just deleted the example I originally posted), I trust my partner and bid 7♠.

Edited July 6, 2009 by gnasher

[bhindi]

Partner's pass is forcing, inviting me to bid 7♠, and showing first-round heart control.  A takeout double of 2♥ should include enough defence to guarantee defeating 7♥.

 

Even though it's hard to construct a layout where that's believable (in fact, I've just deleted the example I originally posted), I trust my partner and bid 7♠.

Do you prefer pancakes for breakfast too? This is a lead problem.

 

Anyway, I lead a trump.

[Codo]

Are we SURE that a pass of 7 HEart shows a void in hearts?  I am not.

Hard to tell sometimes whether people are joking or not...

Sorry, I was sure that there are no (not many at least) hands where partner can have a heart and my try to be ironic failed. Not the first time and not the last time. Mea culpa.

[655321]

Hard to tell sometimes whether people are joking or not...

Sorry, I was sure that there are no (not many at least) hands where partner can have a heart and my try to be ironic failed. Not the first time and not the last time. Mea culpa.

Sorry, wasn't sure ;)

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

 

X, Ace of clubs.

 

I doubt either 7H or 7S makes, i.e. I am not going to bid 7S.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[kenrexford]

7♠. ♠A otherwise.

[Edmunte1]

I trust my partner FP over 6♥. As long as he doesn't know about my quality of trumps he must have all other pieces: void in hearts, ♦AK, ♣Q

[matmat]

Partner's pass is forcing, inviting me to bid 7♠, and showing first-round heart control.  A takeout double of 2♥ should include enough defence to guarantee defeating 7♥.

 

Even though it's hard to construct a layout where that's believable (in fact, I've just deleted the example I originally posted), I trust my partner and bid 7♠.

Do you prefer pancakes for breakfast too? This is a lead problem.

 

Anyway, I lead a trump.

actually, it isn't.

 

the OP asks "if you double or pass," leaving other bidding options available.

[mikeh]

Partner's pass is forcing, inviting me to bid 7♠, and showing first-round heart control.  A takeout double of 2♥ should include enough defence to guarantee defeating 7♥.

 

Even though it's hard to construct a layout where that's believable (in fact, I've just deleted the example I originally posted), I trust my partner and bid 7♠.

Do you prefer pancakes for breakfast too? This is a lead problem.

 

Anyway, I lead a trump.

What kind of hand are you picturing on which a trump makes any sense whatsoever?

 

There seem to be two possibilities for LHO. He is almost certainly 5=7 or so in the reds.... if he has no high cards, then our lead won't matter. If he has AKxxxxx in diamonds, which is the other possibility.. he was bidding to make 6♥ and knew he had a 50% chance of grand... x Kxxxx AKxxxxx void or similar.. then a red suit lead allows an easy make. I am ignoring an intermediate hand with, say KJxxxxx in diamonds.

 

As for the problem....if they are cold on the wrong black suit guess, then our expectation for defending is about -1185: doubling seems silly if they might make and rate to fail by only one when they don't. Whereas bidding grand looks to be about -300.

 

If they are saving, then doubling gets us say 500 and bidding gets us 1510... unless we have a slow diamond loser... LHO has KJ.

 

So everything points to bidding.

 

If I passed... and I doubt that I could find it within myself to do so, even tho I think it is best not to double, I would lead a club. The only reason I can find for preferring a spade is that IF lho is saving on a 751 freak, he might have bid clubs at some point if he were 1=5=7=0, hoping to catch our partner as declarer in a spade slam... if you held x Kxxxx Jxxxxxx void and your partner opened in 2nd seat with 2♥, wouldn't you suspect a black suit slam? Of course, with 0571, maybe he would bid spades? So it really is a coin toss... I draw no inference from partner's initial pass.. if he has crap, he shouldn't make a shitty preempt in 1st seat, while if he has the missing cards, he shouldn't preempt a shitty suit.

[xrato2004]

Someone is kidding here...we are WHITE, opps RED!!!

 

Unless LHO is a maniac bidder, wich i must discard it, he must have something like this is:

 

-

Axxxx

AKxxxxx

x

 

hes hoping to catch his pard wit something like this

 

xx

KQJ10xx

xxx

Qx

 

When he bid 7♥ he was expecting a Spade lead. So:

 

1-Dbl

2-Lead A♣

[mikeh]

 

When he bid 7♥ he was expecting a Spade lead. So:

 

1-Dbl

2-Lead A♣

But: maybe he thinks that you would think that he was ready for a spade lead...with x Axxxx AKxxxxx void, he'd know you probably hold the club A, and that you'd lead it for precisely the reason you chose!

 

Spy v spy regression can go on ad infinitum... unless your opps are very naive, and his calls suggest LHO is not, I don't think this reasoning helps either way.

 

Plus, while I agree that the bidding is weird.. with Axxxx Jxxxxxx in the reds, they rate to be cold for slam somewhere while we are at worst, on most layouts, 800 in 7♥... so we can't conclude that LHO was bidding to make.

[Phil]

I don't know if my partner would preempt 3♠ w/r with JTxxxx void xx Qxxxx, but it helps to know who I'm playing with. With Gilbert, this is a 4♠ opener, with others its 3, with Chris, its a pass.

 

LHO is certainly 5-6 or 5-7 in the reds, since partner made a FP. Partner might be 6-5 for the 6♠ bid, but is probably 6-4 however, this is mitigated by the non-preempt.

 

If I lead, I'm leading a club, since it looks like 10 spades for us and 9 - 9 1/2 clubs.

 

However, I'm pretty sure LHO stumbled when he bid 7♥. 6♠ is certainly going down on a diamond lead, so we suddenly have a potential plus position. My teammate isn't a gambler and isn't bidding 7♥ after bidding 6 (although he might bid it directly) and would probably make an extreme fit jump to get the diamond lead in.

 

If I bid 7♠, I concede 300 against the +50 our teammates are getting, so this is a lose 6 proposition.

 

If I pass 7♥ and lead right, we will win 4

 

If I pass 7♥ and I lead wrong, we are losing 21 (I think).

 

There is no way I am +/-84% confident the club lead is right, so I'll take the insurance and bid 7♠.

 

______________________

 

By the way, I realize its LHO, not RHO that has to find the diamond lead. But if my assumptions about pard's hand are right, we are never making 7♠ under any circumstances, although we might have made 6, so I can't factor that in.

[Jlall]

@gnasher: I could not feel more strongly that you are wrong. When the opps jump to slam vulnerable against non vulnerable how can you be in a forcing pass just because you have shown 12 HCP. FWIW I do not think you are in a forcing pass if you open 2C and the opps bid slam vul against not. Maybe you think that is crazy, but I think being in a forcing pass because you opened 1N or 1x or Xed a 2 level preempt is the most absurd thing I've ever heard.

 

Everyone knows what's going on. LHO has a big red 2 suiter and a void in a black suit. I thought it was obvious the question is whether or not to figure out what black suit to lead, or take the very cheap insurance available.

 

@phil: Why has your LHO stumbled if you view it as correct to save in 7S? Seems like he made a good bid to me.

 

@655321: Great reasoning imo. I gave it to Hamman and he used the same reasoning (and was so confident in it that he doubled).

 

I have one more reason that I think a spade lead is right. If LHO has no spades and a club or two, he must be worried that 7S is going to make on the wrong minor suit lead. In that case he probably would have bid 7D along the way just to make sure. However if he has a spade or 2 and no club, he knows 7S will go down on either minor suit lead. If that's the case, he would be much more likely to bid 7H. Perhaps this means I should bid 7D regardless of which void I have (giving up on a club lead vs 7S X in order to maximize my chance of the opps taking this inference).

 

Eddie Wold chose to bid 7S at the table, and went for 300 only when we didn't get a club ruff on opening lead.

[benlessard]

7S Im not risking 18-20 imps on a lead.

 

Also i dont see why LHO with a stiff spade and a club void cannot bid 7D and make a ligthner X (that will be 100% for clubs).

 

IMO at high level a penalty double implies that whatever partner lead its going to go down so therefore you can afford to play lightner all the way.

[gnasher]

@gnasher: I could not feel more strongly that you are wrong. When the opps jump to slam vulnerable against non vulnerable how can you be in a forcing pass just because you have shown 12 HCP

I didn't do a very good job of arguing my case before, so here's another attempt.

 

Disregarding the vulnerability for a moment, this is what's happened:

- We've both bid.

- We bid to 6♠, in an auction where we didn't deny the values for a slam.

- Ostensibly RHO wanted to play only in 6♥. He signed off in 6♥, and only bid 7♥ after we had bid 6♠.

 

Qualitatively, this auction is no different from:

  (1♠) dbl (3♠) 4♥

  (pass) pass (4♠)

where we would all play pass as forcing (wouldn't we?), because the auction says that they're sacrificing. Both opponents wanted to play in 3♠, but they bid 4♠ only after we bid 4♥. We'd occasionally pay off if responder was sandbagging, had correctly reevaluated, or just got lucky, but the principle that this type of sequence creates a forcing pass is both sound and well-established.

 

In the original auction, the same applies: 7♥ may be cold, but if we take the auction at face value responder doesn't think so. The auction certainly doesn't guarantee that 6♥ or 7♥ was bid to make. What would responder do with - K109xx J10xxxxx x? If it were any other vulnerability, it would be clear to play pass as forcing.

 

In both of these auctions, there's a case for not playing a forcing pass at this particular vulnerability, but I prefer not to vary my forcing pass agreements according to vulnerability. There's also a case for not playing a forcing pass at this particular combination of vulnerability and level, or when it's "obvious" that pass shouldn't be forcing, but that's too hard for me. I like my forcing-pass rules to be simple and unambiguous.

 

What's the downside of playing pass as forcing? Over 7♥ advancer has two actions available, pass and double, and he has two possible hand-types: a hand that bid 6♠ to make, and a hand that bid it as a sacrifice. If pass is non-forcing, double shows the good hand and pass shows the weak one. If pass is forcing, double shows the weak hand and pass shows the good hand. Given that defending 7♥ undoubled is unlikely to be correct, there doesn't seem to be much to choose between the two.